H2Otown_WX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It might come a bit north. Canadian actually went south..lol. Lol, can't expect anything less this winter. I can't even wrap my mind around just how bad this has been..and not just here, nationwide (save AK). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Tip brings up a good point with the NAO. It is very positive. And forecasted to only go more positive. With the NAO set up like it is, how can this system not come north a bit. It is taking a track as if the NAO were extremely negative( a la 09-10). So honestly this system should finish being a little further NW than modeled, but probably not enough to affect us region wide. The Cape and possibly the south coast could be affected by this, but nothing to significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Lol, can't expect anything less this winter. I can't even wrap my mind around just how bad this has been..and not just here, nationwide (save AK). Well, if the MA gets a decent hit from this one...I think many of them will have surpassed metro BOS on the season. (8-12" total) which would be close to their normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Tip brings up a good point with the NAO. It is very positive. And forecasted to only go more positive. With the NAO set up like it is, how can this system not come north a bit. It is taking a track as if the NAO were extremely negative( a la 09-10). So honestly this system should finish being a little further NW than modeled, but probably not enough to affect us region wide. The Cape and possibly the south coast could be affected by this, but nothing to significant. Strong confluence from the northern vort at H5 is screwing this up for areas away from the S coast. Want that to dampen out or move north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well, if the MA gets a decent hit from this one...I think many of them will have surpassed metro BOS on the season. (8-12" total) which would be close to their normal. Yeah that's the sad thing, oh well, what can you do it's just weather lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Tip brings up a good point with the NAO. It is very positive. And forecasted to only go more positive. With the NAO set up like it is, how can this system not come north a bit. It is taking a track as if the NAO were extremely negative( a la 09-10). So honestly this system should finish being a little further NW than modeled, but probably not enough to affect us region wide. The Cape and possibly the south coast could be affected by this, but nothing to significant. nyuk nyuk - pun intended? anyway, I suspect the Euro run holds serve on intensity from the 00z run, but may tick NW some ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Ukie looked like it would eventually go near the GFS position, judging by H5 pattern. GFS probably too fast, UK is slower, not as amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Strong confluence from the northern vort at H5 is screwing this up for areas away from the S coast. Want that to dampen out or move north. Ya I know. But logically it still has come NW right? Even if it is just a little bit. I still want to go and wave at this thing as it sails by. So you can see where my expectations are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 LOL at the gfs over the last 36 hrs. Actually impressed at how many didn't buy into it. Shows what a bad winter will do to even the biggest weenie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 LOL at the gfs over the last 36 hrs. Actually impressed at how many didn't buy into it. Shows what a bad winter will do to even the biggest weenie! yup were numb as phil collins sang "i dont care anymore" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 LOL at the gfs over the last 36 hrs. Actually impressed at how many didn't buy into it. Shows what a bad winter will do to even the biggest weenie! It's a good thing it digest the G4 data or it would have been really terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 yup were numb as phil collins sang "i dont care anymore" It's a good thing it digest the G4 data or it would have been really terrible Right!? Man, imagine if this thing really did wind up being a MECS for the northeast and NCEP continued to claim errors? That would have been a hoot. Oh well, we'll see what the relatively steadfast Euro says at 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Right!? Man, imagine if this thing really did wind up being a MECS for the northeast and NCEP continued to claim errors? That would have been a hoot. Oh well, we'll see what the relatively steadfast Euro says at 1pm. You have to wonder if the data ingest actually caused some of the problems. The GFS isn't the best model in the world, but it's not usually this erratic inside of 72...and in this case the errors were all very short windows...0-36 hours at 5h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 gfs ens mean is nothing special. pretty flat and passes well south of the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This looks more reasonable, but with the northern edge trimmed to virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 gfs ens mean is nothing special. pretty flat and passes well south of the BM It looked a bit slower than 00z but not too far from it. A little better than 06z, but I didn't expect these to be 100 miles nw of the op or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It looked a bit slower than 00z but not too far from it. A little better than 06z, but I didn't expect these to be 100 miles nw of the op or anything. no i certainly didn't either. yesterday had several members on roids which gave me pause that perhaps the op was on to something, but those seem to be just about gone. maybe 1 or 2 members are a bit more robust but i'd wager a lot are scrapes at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 In keeping with the theme of this winter having events take place that can't statistically ... eh hm... If this thing does what the guidance wants to do with it, someone in N VA will have a greater DJF snow total than Worcester, Ma ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You have to wonder if the data ingest actually caused some of the problems. The GFS isn't the best model in the world, but it's not usually this erratic inside of 72...and in this case the errors were all very short windows...0-36 hours at 5h. Yeah, you'd think the data ingested and model physics could somewhat handle the barrage of s/w with the first 24h of the run...if this doesn't play out, it'll again show how the Euro is just overall better. Poor America Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 UKIE south big time.....several hundred miles ENE of hatteras at hr 96....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 no i certainly didn't either. yesterday had several members on roids which gave me pause that perhaps the op was on to something, but those seem to be just about gone. maybe 1 or 2 members are a bit more robust but i'd wager a lot are scrapes at best. I don't expect the euro to change much today either. We are definitely converging on a solution that may be just a bit too far south, but being 84-90 hrs out..we've seen changes before, so we need to be aware of that. You guys down there are certainly hoping for every 10 mile shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 UKIE south big time.....several hundred miles ENE of hatteras at hr 96....... GFS is still running fast which allows it to get further north. So far none of the other models do that and are total and complete misses. About game over I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS is still running fast which allows it to get further north. So far none of the other models do that and are total and complete misses. About game over I think. If the Euro is anything like the globals, game, set, and match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yeah, you'd think the data ingested and model physics could somewhat handle the barrage of s/w with the first 24h of the run...if this doesn't play out, it'll again show how the Euro is just overall better. Poor America the thing is though...yesterday we were still what...120+ hours out?...and the GFS is run 4x / day. if it were only run twice, it would just be a blip....just one day at 5 days out when it amped up a bit too much. the euro amps up storms all the time and shifts around like crazy, it just has a tendency to do it a bit earlier before settling in to some consistency...like days 6-10 it loves to go nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 the thing is though...yesterday we were still what...120+ hours out?...and the GFS is run 4x / day. if it were only run twice, it would just be a blip....just one day at 5 days out when it amped up a bit too much. the euro amps up storms all the time and shifts around like crazy, it just has a tendency to do it a bit earlier before settling in to some consistency...like days 6-10 it loves to go nuts. But the GFS errors were at h12 and h24 and then propogated out. That's unusual even for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Another system, same winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Another system, same winter. a favorite quote of mine: "same deal different devil" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 the thing is though...yesterday we were still what...120+ hours out?...and the GFS is run 4x / day. if it were only run twice, it would just be a blip....just one day at 5 days out when it amped up a bit too much. the euro amps up storms all the time and shifts around like crazy, it just has a tendency to do it a bit earlier before settling in to some consistency...like days 6-10 it loves to go nuts. Yeah, by those terms it only really had it for 2 runs. Makes sense. Still though, the Euro was really steadfast with its handling of all these s/w during the last couple days and if it came down to it, I'd take a model who jumps around at d7 over a model who jumps around at h90 any day of the week. (no pun intended). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 scott i know you said you are forecasting for the N.E corridor for this storm but i mean you don't give more of a 20% shot of boston seeing an inch out of this storm do you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 OT: what is the season with the least snowfall in ALB-ORH-BOS ? ...is this so called futility record even possible ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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