CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Maybe we can get that follow up s/w to kick the 1st one out. If that s/w sped up quicker and some of that nrn stream energy came down the pike quicker like it tried to show, it would be a good hit. It's actually a decent hit for Phil I think. At least it was a slight improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 that's a good trend for MBY on that run western part of the comma head is actually over the cape for a while. if that closed just a hair earlier it would be a "big" event out here. I think you're in a good spot. Is what it is, we're seeing the models now come together. The GFS was way off speedwise, has slowed to consensus and now hopefully we'll see the rest of the suite lock in. Figure at this range +/- 50 to 75 miles, if it moves the right way you get buried. Hard time buying this, GFS is probably still going to be on the NW side of the envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If that s/w sped up quicker and some of that nrn stream energy came down the pike quicker like it tried to show, it would be a good hit. It's actually a decent hit for Phil I think. At least it was a slight improvement. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think you're in a good spot. Is what it is, we're seeing the models now come together. The GFS was way off speedwise, has slowed to consensus and now hopefully we'll see the rest of the suite lock in. Figure at this range +/- 50 to 75 miles, if it moves the right way you get buried. Hard time buying this, GFS is probably still going to be on the NW side of the envelope. wait, did you move? if you're still at the canal, i think what happens here would be relatively similar to what happens where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'd rather be on the nw edge than the qpf bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think you're in a good spot. Is what it is, we're seeing the models now come together. The GFS was way off speedwise, has slowed to consensus and now hopefully we'll see the rest of the suite lock in. Figure at this range +/- 50 to 75 miles, if it moves the right way you get buried. Hard time buying this, GFS is probably still going to be on the NW side of the envelope. Aw man. Well, DT looks to be right. Everyone that bashed him yesterday should go apologize on his FB page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'd rather be on the nw edge than the qpf bullseye Yes usually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 [/b] Aw man. Well, DT looks to be right. Everyone that bashed him yesterday should go apologize on his FB page. Nobody bought into the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I would give it more time to say anyone is right or wrong at this point [/b] Aw man. Well, DT looks to be right. Everyone that bashed him yesterday should go apologize on his FB page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 wait, did you move? if you're still at the canal, i think what happens here would be relatively similar to what happens where you are. I'm not sure, I think it'll have a real sharp edge that may end up orienting in such a way that the 10-15 miles NE on edge that I am will be like living where ray is this year. Map like this I'm guessing you're double the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is about where I thought would be a good start, yesterday. Blending the 18z GEFS and 12z EC ensembles. For now, anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If that s/w sped up quicker and some of that nrn stream energy came down the pike quicker like it tried to show, it would be a good hit. It's actually a decent hit for Phil I think. At least it was a slight improvement. That lead s/w that is screwing us on the GFS is way up on the N side of the Northwest Territories. Plenty of time to watch the evolution of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 little elevation in the mid atlantic will do people alot of good in this...i would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If we get that northern vortmax to get out ahead of the southern stream...could we get this to come NW? I see that it does get out ahead of the southern stream, but produces some hefty confluence over CNE as the storm is coming off the MA coast. If we get that confluence to weaken/further north...I think we'd be pretty happy with the result. Yes, ...the expression "all or nothing" is loosely available to this. If the N stream teases then wave interference will deconstruct events... Fancy schmalk for dampen the storm. You really want the N stream to either commit more fully, or get the hell out. If the N stream abandons altogether, with the NAO being positive such that it is, I am highly confident that SOMEthing will happen in that case. Why? Because taking a moderate surface wave and parental mechanics aloft straight E of the lower MA during a positive NAO is big time no-no. The teleconnection is a NW storm track. If the N stream gets out of the way, I feel confident the S stream impulse would ride NW (eventually in the models) and get some kind of an event cookng - it just won't have nearly the magestic appeal of that phased in turbo nuke like yesterday. If the N stream conflues to mightily than this won't lift up the coast. It'll get squeeze between the SE heights and the N stream exerting from the N. It's just that simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looks like I am on an island again liking the GFS and NAM look at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is about where I thought would be a good start, yesterday. Blending the 18z GEFS and 12z EC ensembles. For now, anyways. Gun to head, does Euro come north at 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 lol Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi Reply Retweet Favorite · Open Feed back on GFS causes premature jump.Tho low near my track, worried correction has to be north 50-75 miles.No change for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GGEM is actually flatter than the 0z, bigger miss than earlier. Based on NCEP model performance....unless the Euro comes north you'd have to go with the outside solutions. The GFS hasn't really been close to itself on any 6 hr period for a day and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Gun to head, does Euro come north at 12z? It might come a bit north. Canadian actually went south..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 gfs actually briefly closes of 5h as this rotates past ACK. would really only require a very subtle shift and it would be a full blown event for SE areas. will that happen? eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 So who is up for a party on the beach? So we can all smile and wave at this thing as it sails out to sea. Man this thing is going to be one heck of an ocean storm. Just looking at the 500-1000 thickness; the precip shield on the northwest side is a thing of beauty. Would be feet for everyone if it where to ever hit us. O well. On a side not, we are setting a record this year. Record for most towels thrown is about to be shattered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looks like I am on an island again liking the GFS and NAM look at this juncture. For us in the southern areas, yes. N of the Pike, imo, will have a tough shot at much out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't like the GGEM in modeling systems like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 lol Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi Reply Retweet Favorite · Open Feed back on GFS causes premature jump.Tho low near my track, worried correction has to be north 50-75 miles.No change for now Tweets like this don't really even make sense. He is clearly not forecasting anymore (although that has been a long time now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 For us in the southern areas, yes. N of the Pike, imo, will have a tough shot at much out of this. I do not give a rats ass about anything but my back yard LOL, it is OT, brass knuckles out, every man for himself!!! Seriously lots of time left in this game bro, how many times have you seen SS systems gets so amped up we flip to rain while MRG and crew high five while wearing only buckskin thongs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't like the GGEM in modeling systems like this. Its precip shield on the north side makes no sense, its MSLP through 84 hours is not that far off from the GFS. I swear I recall questioning its QPF shield before as well on the north side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't like the GGEM in modeling systems like this. From a standpoint of I don't really care what happens with this system, GGEM and NAM like solutions are probably more realistic given the elongated front and severe positive tilt (although tilt configuration may change with poor resolving of northern stream features...it is much more likely this is flat). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Ukie looked like it would eventually go near the GFS position, judging by H5 pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 From a standpoint of I don't really care what happens with this system, GGEM and NAM like solutions are probably more realistic given the elongated front and severe positive tilt (although tilt configuration may change with poor resolving of northern stream features...it is much more likely this is flat). Contrary to Ens guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 We still have a chance here for this to come further north then what the GFS and Euro are indicating..Its a big system and a whole lot of qpf with it...I just don't think we should start the towel throwing competition yet here. Just saying! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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