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2/19 East Coast Winter Storm Threat (Part 2)

OKpowdah

By OKpowdah,
in New England

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snowNH

snowNH

Posted
Posted

The 12z NAM will be better since it's a little more consolidated with the srn stream energy. Also, a piece of the nrn stream gets injected into it...we actually want that, but want it to occur sooner.

It actually looks like the GFS lol.. what an interesting run. This setup is so damn hard for the models it's rediculous. I bet by 00z tonight we are focusing on that northern piece that is hanging back at the end of the NAM run.

Scott when looking at the upper air and surface of the NAM, it just didn't make sense why the surface low was being suppressed and then another low was taking over right under the S/W. I don't like the idea of a "dual low" as the NAM is projecting. There will be 1 low ( the one that's further back on the NAM)

I'm really encouraged by the NAM as it continued to trend NW.

I'm telling you now... We have to what that northern stream S/W that the NAM has over the great lakes at hour 72. Also, we have to watch for a faster ejection of the southern stream S/W and also for it it to get juiced up!

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Was that the one when Matt Noyes was tweaking out on his livestream about GFS vs Euro?

Maybe, but it was the one where it Barry B wasn't buying some of the more robust solutions (I think it was the euro) because it was mostly a whiff on other guidance. In the end, we got buried. I brought it up for a good laugh, because that set up was a little different, but was mostly srn stream upper level low.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

The NAM appeared headed way west through 66 then sheared out. Once again that dual low and coast jumping the initial low does is bugging me, if that idea is wrong then the NAM is too far south and east with the entire system.

I noticed that happens when we have confluence over New England. You get that elongated center jump look. It may not be totally out to lunch.

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MarkO

MarkO

Posted
Posted

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WITH OCCLUSION CLEAR OF THE CWA BY EVE...WILL JUST SEE LEFTOVER

UPSLOPE SHSN IN THE MTNS IN NW FLOW. TRUE PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL

ARRIVE EARLY SAT...WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN SHSN ACTIVITY IN THE

HIGH TERRAIN. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO VERY BRIEF S/WV RIDGING ACROSS

THE AREA LATE SAT BEFORE THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING.

VERY COMPLEX FCST BEYOND THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED. THE MAIN

REASON FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IS BECAUSE THE PLAYERS ARE JUST

BEGINNING TO TAKE THE FIELD. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT A VERY

CHAOTIC UPR LVL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE...WITH MULTIPLES S/WV TROFS TO

AFFECT THE SENSIBLE WX FOR NRN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

WHAT WE DO NOT KNOW IS EXACTLY HOW THESE S/WV FEATURES WILL

INTERACT WITH ONE ANOTHER.

FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SEPARATED INTO

TWO CAMPS. THE GFS WITH SN REACHING AT LEAST THE SRN CWA...AND THE

REST OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A MORE SUPPRESSED...SRN LOW PRES.

ATTM...NRN STREAM S/WV TROFS ARE JUST REACHING THE W COAST OF

NOAM. ONE IS FCST TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE WRN CANADA RIDGING...AND

DIVE THRU THE INTER MTN WEST. THE OTHER IS FCST TO RIDE THE RIDGE

AND DIVE THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS WILL BE TAKING PLACE

WHILE THE SRN STREAM S/WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROF

IN THE SWRN U.S.

MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE SRN STREAM AND INTER MTN S/WV

TROFS WILL INTERACT AND SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE GULF

COAST. THIS LOW PRES WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE

SAT/EARLY SUN. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE FROM THE AMOUNT OF NRN

STREAM INTERACTION FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE S/WV. THE GFS HAS BEEN

FAVORING PHASING OF ALL THREE S/WV TROFS...RESULTING IN A

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW PRES. CONVERSELY THE ECMWF...AND MOST

OTHER GUIDANCE...KEEPS THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS LARGELY UNPHASED.

THIS CREATES TOO MUCH CONFLUENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND FORCES THE

LOW PRES OUT TO SEA. THE HANDLING OF THESE THREE UPR LVL FEATURES

WILL CHANGE OVER THE COMING MODEL CYCLES...AS THEY BECOME

INCREASINGLY MORE SAMPLED BY THE UPR AIR NETWORK. IN FACT 00Z

INITIALIZATION BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OF THE NRN STREAM WERE

VERY SIMILAR...SHOWING HOW MUCH CAN CHANGE AS THEY TRAVEL THRU THE

FLOW. SUBTLE CHANGES IN STRENGTH OR SPEED OF THESE WAVES WILL HAVE

LARGE DIFFERENCES ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW

PRES. WILL MAINTAIN A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO...LEANING MORE TOWARDS

THE ECMWF AS THE GFS REPRESENTS AN UPR BOUND AND UNLIKELY FULL

PHASE SCENARIO.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I noticed that happens when we have confluence over New England. You get that elongated center jump look. It may not be totally out to lunch.

It eventually develops into a solid low, but 100-200 miles east of the Delmarva. If the height field could amplify just a little bit, feedback processes would act to develop the low closer to the coast line. The confluence is hurting us right now, but of course..that's if the model has the right idea.

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843wx

843wx

Posted
Posted

Well...if this hits MD/PA/NJ...they could have higher rotals for the year than us in some places.

Don't count out the Northward trend yet. SW Va could do well with this one too. Wise is at around 17 inches for the season. Their 30 year avg is a little over 52".. they get a good deal of upslope/NW flow snows there.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

I'm surprised people have that much interest still in this one. Mine went out the window with the 0z losing it's kinkyness.

Be a nice storm to watch form, get up near the Carolina's and then get shoved out. I'm hoping for a miracle but looking forward to a nice weekend to start the kids vacation.

We are talking about models missing in the speed of a s/w by a few mph. Even 3 mph over the course of a day is about 75 miles. After three days 225 and an entirely different solution. When you think of it that way it's amazing they're ever right.

Enjoy the weather we have it's all we've got this winter. IMHO if this one touches anyone it'll be southeast areas and even that's up in the air.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Ah, the memories... gathering dust in the corners of our minds. It is all we have this year.Futility now!

I gained alot of "followers" at work for throwing Barry under the bus....they thought I was on crack, but at the end of the day, after digging out for the umpteenth time that season and wishing death upon me, they relented and vowed to just text me for wx updates in the future. lol

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Those runs that were nice hits before had northern stream phasing … that essentially captured the low, pulled it polarward yadda yadda yadda savior -

Complicated, but the 00z guidance pretty much across the board simply abandoned that idea all at once. Gone. Why? Fill in the blanks... there's a lot that was and is wrong with this. But the result now is less intensity and confined farther side, no impact for even Gynx given that. Is it all right ? Any year, science and conventional wisdom would say that such continuity changes are just as indictable as suspiciously over powerful looking storms. This year however … when there is this spooky vibe going on where it is (apparently) physically impossible to snow, there’s a palpable stench in the air that pre-concludes the possibility that those savior looking depictions will return, much less verify. Doesn’t sound very responsible or mature, no … But would anyone argue this year’s been uncanny – that is a HUGE understatement, at that.

Struggling with rationality: there is one small point of contention here. The NAO is positive and rising…. The storm track really should not exit the lower MA like is being shown in the mean of the runs. It is possible the southern stream system could be forced on a NW track, simply poorly modeled in its own rite at this time. What that would mean is that a light to moderate intensity event would start ticking NW as it rides up and over the persistent SE ridge.

Feelings? I’m done. I cannot tell you how I wish this winter would go f its self and step in front of a bus. I want it dead and gone. I’m ready for spring; running outside; growing things in my garden; the opportunity (hopefully) to film thunderstorm clouds; girls dressing down.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

I'm surprised people have that much interest still in this one. Mine went out the window with the 0z losing it's kinkyness.

Be a nice storm to watch form, get up near the Carolina's and then get shoved out. I'm hoping for a miracle but looking forward to a nice weekend to start the kids vacation.

We are talking about models missing in the speed of a s/w by a few mph. Even 3 mph over the course of a day is about 75 miles. After three days 225 and an entirely different solution. When you think of it that way it's amazing they're ever right.

Enjoy the weather we have it's all we've got this winter. IMHO if this one touches anyone it'll be southeast areas and even that's up in the air.

I'm watching closely as I'm going to be in MD.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

I gained alot of "followers" at work for throwing Barry under the bus....they thought I was on crack, but at the end of the day, after digging out for the umpteenth time that season and wishing death upon me, they relented and vowed to just text me for wx updates in the future. lol

And this year they are getting their ripped jean shorts and hackey sacks ready... ugh.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

I'm surprised people have that much interest still in this one. Mine went out the window with the 0z losing it's kinkyness.

Be a nice storm to watch form, get up near the Carolina's and then get shoved out. I'm hoping for a miracle but looking forward to a nice weekend to start the kids vacation.

We are talking about models missing in the speed of a s/w by a few mph. Even 3 mph over the course of a day is about 75 miles. After three days 225 and an entirely different solution. When you think of it that way it's amazing they're ever right.

Enjoy the weather we have it's all we've got this winter. IMHO if this one touches anyone it'll be southeast areas and even that's up in the air.

Sounds like your issue is with the mrs....or mr....hey, whatever floats your weenie.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Those runs that were nice hits before had northern stream phasing … that essentially captured the low, pulled it polarward yadda yadda yadda savior -

Complicated, but the 00z guidance pretty much across the board simply abandoned that idea all at once. Gone. Why? Who knows. But the result now is less intensity and confined farther side, no impact for even Gynx given that. Is it all right ? Any year, science and conventional wisdom would say that such continuity changes are just as indictable as suspiciously over powerful looking storms. This year however … when there is this spooky vibe going on where it is (apparently) physically impossible to snow, there’s a palpable stench in the air that pre-concludes the possibility that those savior looking depictions will return, much less verify. Doesn’t sound very responsible or mature, no … But would anyone argue this year’s been uncanny – that is a HUGE understatement, at that.

Struggling with rationality: there is one small point of contention here. The NAO is positive and rising…. The storm track really should not exit the lower MA like is being shown in the mean of the runs. It is possible the southern stream system could be forced on a NW track, simply poorly modeled in its own rite at this time. What that would mean is that a light to moderate intensity event would start ticking NW as it rides up and over the persistent SE ridge.

Feelings? I’m done. I cannot tell you how I wish this winter would go f its self and step in front of a bus. I want it dead and gone. I’m ready for spring; running outside; growing things in my garden; the opportunity (hopefully) to film thunderstorm clouds; girls dressing down.

Sorry, bra.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Those runs that were nice hits before had northern stream phasing … that essentially captured the low, pulled it polarward yadda yadda yadda savior -

Complicated, but the 00z guidance pretty much across the board simply abandoned that idea all at once. Gone. Why? Who knows. But the result now is less intensity and confined farther side, no impact for even Gynx given that. Is it all right ? Any year, science and conventional wisdom would say that such continuity changes are just as indictable as suspiciously over powerful looking storms. This year however … when there is this spooky vibe going on where it is (apparently) physically impossible to snow, there’s a palpable stench in the air that pre-concludes the possibility that those savior looking depictions will return, much less verify. Doesn’t sound very responsible or mature, no … But would anyone argue this year’s been uncanny – that is a HUGE understatement, at that.

Struggling with rationality: there is one small point of contention here. The NAO is positive and rising…. The storm track really should not exit the lower MA like is being shown in the mean of the runs. It is possible the southern stream system could be forced on a NW track, simply poorly modeled in its own rite at this time. What that would mean is that a light to moderate intensity event would start ticking NW as it rides up and over the persistent SE ridge.

Feelings? I’m done. I cannot tell you how I wish this winter would go f its self and step in front of a bus. I want it dead and gone. I’m ready for spring; running outside; growing things in my garden; the opportunity (hopefully) to film thunderstorm clouds; girls dressing down.

you shouldn't get emotionally invested in the weather.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

I'm surprised people have that much interest still in this one. Mine went out the window with the 0z losing it's kinkyness.

Be a nice storm to watch form, get up near the Carolina's and then get shoved out. I'm hoping for a miracle but looking forward to a nice weekend to start the kids vacation.

We are talking about models missing in the speed of a s/w by a few mph. Even 3 mph over the course of a day is about 75 miles. After three days 225 and an entirely different solution. When you think of it that way it's amazing they're ever right.

Enjoy the weather we have it's all we've got this winter. IMHO if this one touches anyone it'll be southeast areas and even that's up in the air.

People can't watch/discuss models and storms for the joy of it, regardless of outcome?

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