OKpowdah Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Gathering towels to throw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I have to deal with it, for work purposes. oh I know, not a bad thing either, your input on desk is great for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You think we'll at least get some snow..even if just northern stream? Well if it's just nrn stream, probably not, but the GFS does bring some light QPF on Sunday...maybe that's what you meant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well the GFS is in danger of being too far se, if the ensembles are right. The euro ensembles are now more bullish. I don't completely agree with your statement, and this also doesn't mean much beyond day 5 when op models can show whatever they want..since that solution likely won't happen anyways. It's when you get inside day 4, where it counts. Also, many times when you have wide open solutions, models will compromise or move towards each other. When models are hundreds of miles apart, the end result can still be no snow in your back yard so although you may think one model crapped the bed...that's only because locally it took away your snow. You have to be objective with models. ya, i'm not saying I like the GFS cause it's showing a storm--it's not anymore...I'm just saying from a practical (sound forecasting) perspective i'd focus on the GFS In terms of the EURO ensembles, that's good to hear...my guess is that despite "OK model agreement" right now, the southwestern energy is hardly sampled yet and still needs to move onshore over the next 24 hours, which will probably mean bigger changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 SREFS are not a good start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 ya, i'm not saying I like the GFS cause it's showing a storm--it's not anymore...I'm just saying from a practical (sound forecasting) perspective i'd focus on the GFS In terms of the EURO ensembles, that's good to hear...my guess is that despite "OK model agreement" right now, the southwestern energy is hardly sampled yet and still needs to move onshore over the next 24 hours, which will probably mean bigger changes I still don't agree the GFS is the more sound model. It's crapped the bed many times this winter..and so has the euro. I usually trust the euro more combined with it's ensembles, but like I said..when they are far apart more often than not, they will move towards each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 SREFS are not a good start Definitely flatter t than the 21z runs I posted last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Steve, where is that image from, that you posted in the MA forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Steve, where is that image from, that you posted in the MA forum? LOL on the extreme caution flag you just threw down there OMG I died laughing out loud, classic scooter, dead nuts but still. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kdca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 LOL on the extreme caution flag you just threw down there OMG I died laughing out loud, classic scooter, dead nuts but still. http://www.meteor.ia...phtml?site=kdca Well 84-90 hrs out and being targeted right now...I'm only saying that because of experience. That general area looks good for now. Thanks for the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 wow that is awesome LOL on the extreme caution flag you just threw down there OMG I died laughing out loud, classic scooter, dead nuts but still. http://www.meteor.ia...phtml?site=kdca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think he means when the nstream passes through there is snow, which I agree. Time to enjoy our -3c850 rains.........and watching the ma get a snowstorm this weekend, so much for that wagons north tour this yeear, and how it would be tough to get snow down that way. Congrats to all of our ma amigos-2012~worst winter ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well 84-90 hrs out and being targeted right now...I'm only saying that because of experience. That general area looks good for now. Thanks for the link. I know and rightly so, amped up SS and SE ridge could screw the pooch in a hurry. Miller A's are finicky beasts, I want to see some big time Tstorms. man this storm looks so NINOish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I know and rightly so, amped up SS and SE ridge could screw the pooch in a hurry. Miller A's are finicky beasts, I want to see some big time Tstorms. man this storm looks so NINOish. LOL, yeah...just have too much nrn stream garbage right now. Unless 12z does a significant push north or south, I'd wait until the 00z runs finish tonight, before we can try to figure out exact specifics. For now, just keep feelings in the meh category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looks like we will get pooched by the northern stream lobe unless we get it to slow down and dig, It does bring some light snows thru here but meh I think the better hope is the nrn stream is weak and goes way far ahead gets way out of the way and the srn stream slows down really amps up and maybe another vort drops in the backside to drive it farther up the coast. But I'm not too optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think the better hope is the nrn stream is weak and goes way far ahead gets way out of the way and the srn stream slows down really amps up and maybe another vort drops in the backside to drive it farther up the coast. But I'm not too optimistic. Either way, I don't think we are going to like the outcome, There is to many timing differences that need to resolve for this to work out, This has not been the year for getting lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think they will get hit but I don't think they can rack up more than 3-5/6 inches in any non elevated area. Temperatures for them are not so hot. If anyone gets buried it will be further north areas and even the upper MA if the storm bombs, slows, and crawls north. Neither are likely at this moment but we'll see. I was away last night, but if we are now talking about a 3-6" event, then they can keep it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yes it happens. Also, perception [regarding consistency, not skill] about the ECMWF is so different than the other models since they only distribute products twice/day (instead of 4x). The more consistent look has as much to do with the lead time for the event (error growth in the models) than anything. Solutions always become clearer closer to the event. not necessarily on point with the thread but this is a good post from dtk. might seem obvious but people lose sight of this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Nice EURO analysis from Will and Scooter early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The indiv. SREF members are a disaster for the northeast fwiw. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21PRSNE_9z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The indiv. SREF members are a disaster for the northeast fwiw. http://www.meteo.psu...z/srefloop.html Dudski Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Lol. I'll be bummed to be stranded at BWI on Sunday. Me too. I get in there at 820 and my layover flight leaves at 920. Hoping to a northward shift juuust enough for rain down there so I can get out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 not necessarily on point with the thread but this is a good post from dtk. might seem obvious but people lose sight of this point. That is worthy to see. When you have a model distributed 4 times a day, perception on its errors will grow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Maybe we can Tebow a Jan 26 2011...lol. Recall that one, where the nrn stream looked to knock down and kick OTS the srn stream ULL. Although that one had a ridge out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Maybe we can Tebow a Jan 26 2011...lol. Recall that one, where the nrn stream looked to knock down and kick OTS the srn stream ULL. Although that one had a ridge out west. Two DIFFERENT seasons, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That is worthy to see. When you have a model distributed 4 times a day, perception on its errors will grow. yeah. and also the lead time part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Maybe we can Tebow a Jan 26 2011...lol. Recall that one, where the nrn stream looked to knock down and kick OTS the srn stream ULL. Although that one had a ridge out west. fook Tebow and end the linsanity, last year immediately came to my head this AM. FYI man the Euro long lead looks awesome for cold and snow chances, nothing like a 1046 ridge in the NPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Two DIFFERENT seasons, too. I know...I just was laughing to myself about that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z NAM @66h, nothing too different from 06z at 72h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well said. I'll add that the ensembles have been showing the volatility/uncertainty. Certain evolutions/paradigms/regimes have larger error growth characteristics than others....just as certain regimes are ridiculously easy to forecast. This is a case where very small perturbations (initial condition differences, for example) can project onto rapidly growing modes (i.e. small error leads to large error) resulting in different looking forecasts (even with fairly short lead times). People focus so much on the surface reflection and precipitation skewing the perception of consistency. Another good one. We've tried to stress this here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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