OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I figured we could start a new thread before the 00z runs. In summary, The GFS now has three runs (00z, 12z, and 18z today) with a significant snow storm in New England. The 12z UKMET leaned in that direction. The Euro and Canadian want no part of it. The 12z Euro ensembles are NW of the operational run. The NAM is close but no cigar. To reiterate what I and others have been saying in the last thread, there is a multitude of shortwaves interacting in the flow and subtle differences in their handling in the short term can have large ramifications down the road. This is what can be described as a bifurcation of the forecast solutions. For reference, here's a comparison of the s/w's positioning and orientation on the 12z Euro and 12z GFS: Comparing to the first post of the thread, I've labeled the shortwaves on today's 12z Euro and 12z GFS, valid 15z Saturday (the same as the original in the first post) EURO: GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Liking the model drift so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Liking the GFS model drift so far. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Thanks Sam for showing the sw's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Fixed The Euro ensembles are hinting a more northerly solution is possible. Long way out still but fun to at least see some modeled threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 18z gfs has this area at 31-32F for most of the snowfall...12-14" of wet snow? Looks like about 1.30-1.40" qpf. Small area of 2"+ near NY/CT/MA border/ALB area....1" line runs from about MHT to Logan11. Beautiful solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 are we posting here or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 are we posting here or what? Yeah, Its time to move it over to here, Hopefully its a good omen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 are we posting here or what? Yes. Also, this is for everyone, please stay on topic and limit the weenie posts/banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well, The Nam will be some help as we will get to see the placement of where some of the features will be which will give some indication of what might happen if you extropalate it forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 SREFs are north of 15Z but appear as if it would be a miss for most north of the northern MA again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well, The Nam will be some help as we will get to see the placement of where some of the features will be which will give some indication of what might happen if you extropalate it forward Like Scooter says there are reasons amped up LPs in SC do not scoot OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Like Scooter says there are reasons amped up LPs in SC do not scoot OTS. Yup, As long as it stays amped it will come west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 SREFs are north of 15Z but appear as if it would be a miss for most north of the northern MA again. I know, but were talking about the SREFs in late range here. They are notoriously known for being less amped and SE late in their range (with coastals) IMO, with their BIAS, they look and feel amped. Look at that ridging at H5 in the plains too. That's a pretty damn good signal at 87 hours. And the trend NW continues as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 SREFs are north of 15Z but appear as if it would be a miss for most north of the northern MA again. Posted for future reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I know, but were talking about the SREFs in late range here. They are notoriously known for being less amped and SE late in their range (with coastals) IMO, with their BIAS, they look and feel amped. Look at that ridging at H5 in the plains too. That's a pretty damn good signal at 87 hours. And the trend NW continues as well... What the hell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 How does a 87 hour SREF show n of the MA not in the game,Man IDK how Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 How does a 87 hour SREF show n of the MA not in the game,Man IDK how The pattern is ripping east at 500mb and is progressive from the Pacific to the Midwest, by the time the two systems phase that SLP over HAT would be long gone, that low is moving with a heading of roughly 070 from 81-87 hours, not NE or NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 How does a 87 hour SREF show n of the MA not in the game,Man IDK how I think they'd be in the game on that..maybe not a direct hit, but the mean already has 0.10" to just SW of NYC by hour 87 and with a low west of HSE and traveling ENE, that probably is a hit for Philly and perhaps to NYC...I think we'd probably get scraped in SNE with the outer crap. The bulk of it on that would probably be interior MD though. But this is the 87h SREFs and extrapolating it is a trivial exercise IMHO anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 SREF!!!! <3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The pattern is ripping east at 500mb and is progressive from the Pacific to the Midwest, by the time the two systems phase that SLP over HAT would be long gone, that low is moving with a heading of roughly 070 from 81-87 hours, not NE or NNE. SREFS at 87 bro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 How does a 87 hour SREF show n of the MA not in the game,Man IDK how Me either seeing the storm is still south of here at that timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think they'd be in the game on that..maybe not a direct hit, but the mean already has 0.10" to just SW of NYC by hour 87 and with a low west of HSE and traveling ENE, that probably is a hit for Philly and perhaps to NYC...I think we'd probably get scraped in SNE with the outer crap. The bulk of it on that would probably be interior MD though. But this is the 87h SREFs and extrapolating it is a trivial exercise IMHO anyway. Not to mention the spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 new NAM abandons the GFS/18z NAM idea with that system above ND. Looks like the 12z Euro now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 How does a 87 hour SREF show n of the MA not in the game,Man IDK how i HAVE no idea ginx, 24 hr precip is flying northeast with plenty more behind this when looped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 How does a 87 hour SREF show n of the MA not in the game,Man IDK how here's a good reason....700mb RH looks to be sliding off the coast http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F15%2F2012+21UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+MEANSPRD&pname=700_rh&pdesc=&model=SREF&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Impressive signal for high snowfall totals somewhere on the east coast. For the srefs to show this at hour 87 shows someone will be seeing a lot of snow. Usually at 87 hours they hardly have probs. Again...this is fwiw, I know its 3.5 days out. Also, I don't know if I was looking at a different 15z run, but 15z looked north of this to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Srefs are not meant to be used beyond 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Impressive signal for high snowfall totals somewhere on the east coast. For the srefs to show this at hour 87 shows someone will be seeing a lot of snow. Usually at 87 hours they hardly have probs. Again...this fwiw, I know its 3.5 days out. Also, I don't know if I was looking at a different 15z run, but 15z looked north of this to me. I think you basically just made that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Srefs are not meant to be used beyond 36 hours. Yeah but we have to nitpick it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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