hckyplayer8 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 lol GFS coming in flatter than A tits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 similar to 12z NAM... GFS has system slower and kept slightly south of PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Starting to look like a general consensus to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I just know that if this storm ends up happening for us...that the GFS is going to have the tenacity to pull the plug on this system for a run or so at some point soon. I was actually surprised the 18z went even more nw than the 12z.. but we'll know shortly with the 0z run and the newer sampled data where the GFS stands. Even a consensus between the Euro and GFS solutions we have right now would likely spell a good shot of snowfall for at least the southern third or more of PA. That gets into the finer details of the trajectory out of the Gulf and the NW extent of the precip shield. We have 3 days yet and a lot can change...good or bad. "And as Mag said: the GFS is going to have the tenacity to pull the plug on this system for a run or so at some point soon" We have all seen that happen. Be interesting to see what the models show tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looks like will be a slider. But if we can get less confluence and a stornger southern stream. Will be similar to dec 2009. Wi looks suppressed till a day out and will manage to hit the southern half of the state at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 gfs a 2-4 inch snowfall for southern pa...50 mile shift north and we're in 4 to 8 inches...ill take either in this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 From am19psu in the Philly thread: Verbatim, south of the turnpike in PA and all of S NJ is 2-4, with 4-8 back towards York and Lancaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z Canadian and Ukie both went south of the GFS fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z Canadian and Ukie both went south of the GFS fwiw. canadian is roughly the same low position as gfs but the precip shield is much sharper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 From am19psu in the Philly thread: Works for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z clown maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Btw...its coming down like crazy here right now, road covered and 31 degrees. Looks like NAM may have been right with it's temps. Nice batch of precip moving in too! I've got about a half inch on all non-paved surfaces, and a slushy coating on roads and sidewalks that are sheltered from any solar radiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 a cold cold rain here in Millersville... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Still snowing pretty good, a little more than an inch on the ground if I had to guess. Man, you can tell the models really let a lot of wind out of the CPA threads sails..down to 5 people viewing. Roads west of Unv are slushy. We were shocked at the amount of snow from Skytop west. Mostly rain now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yup. Lost any remaining flakes around 1130. Just a nasty rain now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Still snowing pretty good, a little more than an inch on the ground if I had to guess. Man, you can tell the models really let a lot of wind out of the CPA threads sails..down to 5 people viewing. how we feel after the 12z models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Haha ^^^ But seriously, it's time to put this puppy to bed for almost all of us. Even the southern regions shouldn't be expecting much out of this. Maybe if there were one or two models that showed a different solution I wouldn't say this, but we are in pretty remarkable agreement considering where we were just 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yesterday's models to all of us: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 heavy rain again in Harrisburg..so, typical weather for us! 37 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 My co-worker just said, "Imagine if this rain were snow"? i said yeah if is a big word, if your aunt had balls, she'd be your uncle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 At least this will get all the garbage off the road. Tired of giving the bird a bath every other day, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Haha ^^^ But seriously, it's time to put this puppy to bed for almost all of us. Even the southern regions shouldn't be expecting much out of this. Maybe if there were one or two models that showed a different solution I wouldn't say this, but we are in pretty remarkable agreement considering where we were just 24 hours ago. Isn't it a little odd @ about 72hrs out the models are pretty much in agreement? When is the last time we seen that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hearing that the NAM and Euro both initialized poorly over at Accu, and are being disregarded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hearing that the NAM and Euro both initialized poorly over at Accu, and are being disregarded. MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 219 PM EST THU FEB 16 2012 VALID FEB 16/1200 UTC THRU FEB 20/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND PREFERENCES ...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY... LARGE-SCALE MODEL FORECASTS ARE SIMILAR. ...UPPER LOW NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... PREFERENCE: GFS OR 00Z ECMWF THE SOLUTION SPREAD IS QUITE SUBSTANTIAL FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...WITH THE LOW'S TRACK POSSIBLY DEPENDENT UPON THE EVOLUTION AND INTERACTIONS OF 3 SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING TO ITS NORTH. MODEL INITIALIZATION OF THESE SYSTEMS IS A CONCERN...PARTICULARLY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH MID-LEVEL DIAGNOSTICS FIELDS FROM THE GFS ALIGNING BEST WITH THE STRUCTURE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMPARED TO THE NAM AND ECMWF...WHICH APPEAR WORST. AMONG THE REMAINING SOLUTIONS...THE CANADIAN PRODUCES AN OUTLIER SOLUTION CROSSING THE GULF COAST AND THUS IS DISCARDED...WHILE THE UKMET IS VERY MUCH LIKE THE NAM/ECMWF BUT HAS A TENDENCY TO OVER-DEVELOP OR DEEPEN CYCLONES. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN THE UKMET IS LOW. FINALLY...THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS...INCLUDING THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND FASTER THAN THE GFS RESPECTIVELY BUT WHEN AVERAGED RESULT IN A GFS-LIKE SOLUTION. THUS...ENSEMBLE MEMBER SUPPORT FOR THE GFS IS QUITE GOOD...AND GIVEN THE EXISTING SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY INVOLVING MULTIPLE SMALL-SCALE SYSTEMS...THE ENSEMBLE MEANS MAY OFFER THE MOST MEANINGFUL AND CONSISTENT DAY-TO-DAY FORECAST CHANGES THAT ADEQUATELY ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL SOLUTION ENVELOPE. ANOTHER ALTERNATIVE WOULD BE TO USE A POOR-MANS ENSEMBLE THAT AVERAGES ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE CANADIAN WHICH IS AN OUTLIER. HOWEVER...THIS APPROACH MAY NOT PROPERLY ACCOUNT FOR THE DISPERSION OF SOLUTIONS. THUS...UNTIL THESE MULTIPLE SYSTEMS CAN BE BETTER SAMPLED...THE PREFERENCE IS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH IS BEST APPROXIMATED BY THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS WITH THE 00Z ECMWF A CLOSE SECOND. CONFIDENCE: LOW ...SHORTWAVE TROUGH INFLUENCING THE PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FRI-SAT... PREFERENCE: GFS OR 00Z ECMWF THE GFS LIES NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF ARE FASTER. GIVEN LARGER-SCALE PREFERENCES AND INITIALIZATION CONCERNS DESCRIBED ABOVE...FOR CONSISTENCY THE PREFERENCE IS FOR THE GFS OR THE 00Z ECMWF. CONFIDENCE: LOW ...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST THIS WEEKEND... PREFERENCE: GFS OR ECMWF THE NAM LIES NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TROUGH'S MAIN APPROACH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH A SECONDARY BUT WEAKER TROUGH ARRIVING SUNDAY. GIVEN ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FROM UKMET/CANADIAN AND THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS...THE RECOMMENDATION IS TO DISCOUNT THE NAM. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ...TREND GRAPHICS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML... ...500MB FORECASTS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML... JAMES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 2.3" up here on the mountain south of Williamsport. Looks pretty! Over all not to bad of a day snow wise. Got to see big wet flakes falling for most of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hearing that the NAM and Euro both initialized poorly over at Accu, and are being disregarded. It doesnt touch the 95 corridor, of course it's initialized poorly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Wait, so your saying we still have a chance of a dusting? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hahahaha...I love this thread. Scored 1.5" out of this storm today...woot!!! lol. Huge flakes comig down now, but skies seem to be lightening up a bit. My neighbor just told me it really snowed hard here. We were at our friend's funeral and missed it. We had a lot of trouble getting to her and her family's house for the reception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 My neighbor just told me it really snowed hard here. We were at our friend's funeral and missed it. We had a lot of trouble getting to her and her family's house for the reception. Looks like we had about 1/2" here in Bellefonte today. I was up in Towanda for work, and it was a sleet/snow mix when I left there around noon, but in Sullivan County it was all snow, and heavy at that. 1-2" on everything and roads were a mess. Turned a 2.5 hour drive into a 3.5 hour drive back to Bellefonte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 LOL WUT STORM?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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