NortheastPAWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 UNV breaks the 20 inch mark, now at 20.4. It really is extremely difficult to get less than 20 here. This winter proves that. KAVP is still below 20...17.6 (Just 8.5 since October), though it looks like we do finally have a chance to top that number this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 All other models still warm. I don't believe nam one bit. It's been garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 European looks a bit warmer tonight with temps. UNV appears to be all rain and Williamsport/Scranton looks more like a brief shot of snow to freezing rain/rain. 21z SREFs meanwhile were quite cold looking, with decent probs for 1"+ of snow over a widespread part of the area and even a sizeable 4+" crops up in the north central. Assuming we end up with the decent high up north, I would bet on a colder solution towards..but maybe not quite to the extent of the NAM/SREFs given central PA's ability to hang in that cold air. I think theres going to be a region where freezing rain ends up being more of an issue. Def looks like a pretty messy setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 looks like a good soaker wed into thurs..5-1" in the Harrisburg area. edit- nam wants to start as snow, looks like a hair over an 1", then goes to mix before all rain. and it doesn't look like it gets much above mid-30's. GFS looks much warmer, like 10 degrees warmer and seems drier then nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 KAVP is still below 20...17.6 (Just 8.5 since October), though it looks like we do finally have a chance to top that number this week. Whoops, looks like I may have spoken too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 UNV breaks the 20 inch mark, now at 20.4. It really is extremely difficult to get less than 20 here. This winter proves that. HAY GUYS LOOK AT ME MY D1CK'S THE SIZE OF A SEQUOIA!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 HAY GUYS LOOK AT ME MY D1CK'S THE SIZE OF A SEQUOIA!!! "just the tip" must get old after a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 HAY GUYS LOOK AT ME MY D1CK'S THE SIZE OF A SEQUOIA!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 The nam backed off on snow to start,(for scpa=kmdt) looks like a frzn precip to start then quickly goes to rain. nam is still wetter then gfs. although i guess it doesn't really matter, its just going to be be a raw rainy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 The nam backed off on snow to start,(for scpa=kmdt) looks like a frzn precip to start then quickly goes to rain. nam is still wetter then gfs. although i guess it doesn't really matter, its just going to be be a raw rainy day. Ya the NAM is trash anymore. Never looking at it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 The nam backed off on snow to start,(for scpa=kmdt) looks like a frzn precip to start then quickly goes to rain. nam is still wetter then gfs. although i guess it doesn't really matter, its just going to be be a raw rainy day. The NAM is junk this season - vpcompletely unreliable.It's 64 and sunny. I've been gardening all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Enjoy the summer day today, cuz it looks pretty fugly midweek.. latest CTP snow/ice product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 MAG, do you think that will happen? Aren't the models backing off, or is that incorrect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 MAG, do you think that will happen? Aren't the models backing off, or is that incorrect? The latest SREFs aren't nearly as robust as they were yesterday with how far south frozen precip reached..and the NAM and Euro have warmed up a bit. So you could say the models have backed off some cold tempwise. I still expect enough CAD for the far north central to see frozen/freezing precip issues ( a couple inches of snow with some minor snow and possible zr accums further south near the I-80 corridor and in the Poconos), with perhaps down to UNV or so seeing some freezing rain/sleet initially. I should note to disregard that map i posted.. I saw that it was updated mid afternoon and thought it was the latest.. turns out there's a new latest map out which is a lot less significant. It seems like everytime I throw their map up.. it gets majorly changed 20 minutes later. I was wondering why it was so extreme compared to latest SREF/model guidance. At any rate the setup just doesn't look as "good" as it had the few days. Not that it was a great one to begin with. Edit: changed maps on previous post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Models really warming up, precip. doesn't get in here until after 850s crank above 0*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Lol...just as Jamie said that it cut snow totals down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 This winter even screws up Cad events lol. Beautiful day today btw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 This winter even screws up Cad events lol. Beautiful day today btw! It sure was, and these high temps were achieved even as the 546 thickness line barely got into southern PA today. Thats been a bit of a theme I've noticed this winter, having surface temps alot warmer than you otherwise expect with associated thicknesses. Time of the year and ever increasing sun angle helps of course.. but specifically the lack of a snowpack over the entire northern US this winter has really hampered maintaining more seasonal temps even with the lack of true arctic air involvement and modifying the few arctic air masses that have come at us. This coming storm is finally going to deliver a major snowfall/blizzard to the north central states.. something we needed to start seeing in say late November and early December. I think we missed our shot at salvaging a big snowstorm mid month when the southern stream storm ultimately failed to phase/amplify due to the progressive pattern. We finally get the classic MJO pulse around the 7-8-1-2 ring and it appears thwarted by the insistently positive AO/NAO and a downturn in the PNA to negative. It is what it is... a winter that just never got its s--t together. From here on out I would expect that any snowstorm threat will come as the result of the right setup at the right time and not as part of any established pattern of below average temps. With our luck that probably waits until later in the spring. Our seasonal progression from last summer to this coming summer probably will end up something like: Summer, Fall, Fall, Early spring, Summer. In other news... for any Nascar fans, looks like the race finally is gonna at least get started here in 15 minutes as radar doesn't have anything too close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I'm watching!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Any thoughts for spring and summer? Temp/precip wise I mean, haven't seen any prognosis yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 NAM looks warmer...not that it really matters anymore lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I'm watching!!!!! NAM looks warmer...not that it really matters anymore lol. Speaking of warmer....Wrecking into the jet dryer?? Really?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Speaking of warmer....Wrecking into the jet dryer?? Really?? Murphy's Law in effect in Daytona this year. What a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 LOL....leave it to Juan..I have an 8am class tmrw too!!! Hope they get it going again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 0z EURO, 240hrs. I want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 0z EURO, 240hrs. I want. That fits right into the current thinking that the first half of March torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Since we were just talking about records/climo a few days ago... NCDC website now has a ton of data that you would previously have to pay for now for free... http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/index.jsp ... amazing stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Wow....looking like IPT and Wilkes Barre see a little sleet to rain now...even extreme NE PA sees a brief wintry mix to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Winter Weather Advisory for tomorrow: http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=PAZ018&warncounty=PAC027&firewxzone=PAZ018&local_place1=3+Miles+NNW+Port+Matilda+PA&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 37 and just dumping rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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