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Central PA Winter Cont'd cont'd


The Iceman

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Some snow showers in Monroeville (Where we're staying) atm...man, that ride down I-99/US-22 was probably the worst travel weather I've seen in a while.

You should've seen the drive up US 219 between the turnpike and Johnstown coming back from Seven Springs last night. There was about a 10-15 mile stretch where i followed a single pair of tailights and could kinda see the tracks on the road...and that was it.

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Snipped from this mornings AFD from State College. I'm surprised no one is talking about this.

U.S./EURO OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR AT LEAST A

3- 6 HOUR PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW TO SVRL

INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS...EAST TOWARD THE WYOMING

VALLEY AND POCONOS/. OF THE U.S. ENSEMBLE PACKAGES...THE 03Z SREF

HAS MOST MEMBERS DISPLAYING SNOW OR FZRA FOR THE REGION BETWEEN

KIPT AND KELM...WHILE THE GEFS IS PREDOMINANTLY RAIN.

EVEN AFTER A LIKELY CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID PRECIP IN THE LATE

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT RISE TO PLUS 3-6C....SFC WET BULB

TEMPS AT...OR JUST BELOW FREEZING COULD CAUSE PERIODS OF FREEZING

RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY - ESP TO

THE NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT.

SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS AND THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE ENOUGH

TO POST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NRN

PENN WEDNESDAY.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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I found BGM's take, they say nearly the same:

MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE AN

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD OUR

AREA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER...WITH PRECIPITATION ARRIVING

BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AND IT ALSO HAS A STORM TRACK TO OUR NORTH

WHICH ALLOWS MORE WARM AIR ALOFT TO MOVE IN. THE EURO BRINGS

PRECIPITATION IN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A TRACK NEAR

OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...HAS COLDER THERMAL PROFILES. EVEN IF

YOU BUY THE WARMER SOLUTION OF THE GFS WITH 850S SURGING TO +2C TO

+6C BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...ENOUGH COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED AT THE

SURFACE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. IF YOU BUY THE

EURO...IT WOULD BE MORE OF A SNOW TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX. FOR

NOW WITH THE UNCERTAINTY JUST PLAYED IT A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN OR

SNOW DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO THE FIRST PART

OF WEDNESDAY. EVENTUALLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ENOUGH WARM AIR

SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION TO CHANGE SOME OF US (ESPECIALLY OVER

THE FAR SOUTHWEST) TO PLAIN RAIN...WITH A WINTRY MIX HOLDING ON

OFF TO THE EAST.

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The Euro did come in colder. It's a legit threat of wintry precip for UNV north and east, no doubt.

Reading the discussion in the Philly thread, it seems the other models are beginning to trend in the same direction. My curiosity was piqued when I saw last nights forecast for my area and the high for Wednesday was only 34.

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I'm truly amazed at the lack of discussion in this thread. There is a mid-week threat of at least some wintry precipitation and not one bit of talk about it...

I mentioned this possible storm yesterday afternoon and no one bit on it. It's looking better today as the GFS has looked a bit colder and the SREFs are showing a pretty significant portion of central PA under the gun for a wintry mix scenario. North of I-80 and especially at and northeast of IPT actually look half decent for a straight up accumulating snowfall before any mix/changeover. I've been kinda impressed with how well the Euro has been modelling the CAD with the high up north.

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I mentioned this possible storm yesterday afternoon and no one bit on it. It's looking better today as the GFS has looked a bit colder and the SREFs are showing a pretty significant portion of central PA under the gun for a wintry mix scenario. North of I-80 and especially at and northeast of IPT actually look half decent for a straight up accumulating snowfall before any mix/changeover. I've been kinda impressed with how well the Euro has been modelling the CAD with the high up north.

I did recall your post on this, I suppose we're all still skeptical after the whiff. But I'm glad to hear the models are trending in the right direction for us.

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I mentioned this possible storm yesterday afternoon and no one bit on it. It's looking better today as the GFS has looked a bit colder and the SREFs are showing a pretty significant portion of central PA under the gun for a wintry mix scenario. North of I-80 and especially at and northeast of IPT actually look half decent for a straight up accumulating snowfall before any mix/changeover. I've been kinda impressed with how well the Euro has been modelling the CAD with the high up north.

I did recall your post on this, I suppose we're all still skeptical after the whiff. But I'm glad to hear the models are trending in the right direction for us.

Well...looks like some model watching upcoming this week...looks like Hazleton has a chance at a wintry mess.

FWIW the 0Z NAM came in colder.

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