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Central PA Winter Cont'd cont'd


The Iceman

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http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/weather/Winter-white-flag.html

As for storm threats, we noticed that on the American Weather Forums chat board someone had started a thread about something brewing at the end of the month, but the credentialed weathermen are writing off that prospect as hallucinatory

.

HAD to post this when I saw the previous allusion to MJ and tomotoes. :lmao:

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Yes. I believe they are the remnants of JB's brain cells as he calls for a swath of snow along I80 tonight.

JB is getting overly excited at hour 174/180 on Euro.... he won't admit it but hes been trying to cling on to his "it's going to turn cold" theory hes been trying to forecast since early december...

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My tulips have buds. And there are a ton of some kind of little brown flying insect - not exactly sure what they are. Not moths, not mayflies. Anyone seen these little guys?

Probably should read this: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/01/protect-flowers-from-fros_n_816539.html

You can lose tulips to freeze as they are budding.

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JB is getting overly excited at hour 174/180 on Euro.... he won't admit it but hes been trying to cling on to his "it's going to turn cold" theory hes been trying to forecast since early december...

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi

Very strange "mini low" tracks through mid atlantic and ne Wed and Wed night with band of wet snow I-80 corridor pa, then new england

I presumed that was his call? I doubt many places in PA see flurries let alone a "band of wet snow".

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Euro hours 174-186 is probably a warning event or close to warning event for everyone including potter. Just piling up the snow in what is probably a top 5 winter for day 7-10 snowfall.

I wish MAG, i really wish I could get excited about the Euro, but I just can't. Until I see a storm forecasted to bring 4"+ within 48hrs, it remains the same story from the models. deadhorse.gif . This weather pattern is atrocious, give me an El Nino with an active subtropical jetstream any day over this boring pattern.

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0z NAM ptype map says Potter's right on the line of rain and a pretty decent wet snow event Thurs night with 850s below zero over more of the north central.

The clown map pretty much says congrats Potter and gives all of our starved northern folks some kind of snow.

post-1507-0-05651800-1329968588.gif

Could be typical NAM fail being too cold and too robust on QPF since I haven't really seen any other models anywhere near this. Not to mention 15 and 21z SREFs are alot further north with best snow probs. Might be something to watch where the boundary ends up as the heaviest precip will reside along this temp gradient.

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0z NAM ptype map says Potter's right on the line of rain and a pretty decent wet snow event Thurs night with 850s below zero over more of the north central.

The clown map pretty much says congrats Potter and gives all of our starved northern folks some kind of snow.

post-1507-0-05651800-1329968588.gif

Could be typical NAM fail being too cold and too robust on QPF since I haven't really seen any other models anywhere near this. Not to mention 15 and 21z SREFs are alot further north with best snow probs. Might be something to watch where the boundary ends up as the heaviest precip will reside along this temp gradient.

drool8.giftongue_roll.gif I'm going to marry the NAM if even half that verifies at 4" let alone 8" lol. I seriously doubt we see anything greater than 2", I believe QPF amounts will be doable, but cold air should be lacking. Lot of WAA coming in with the cutter. A 990mb LP over Cleveland never bodes well for decent snow events, unless we have a banana HP to the north and there is none in sight. I don't doubt a quick inch or two before the change over to slop and eventually turning over to the inevitable plain rain. Climatology argues against anything greater than 3" for here with a LP of that strength over Cleveland. Plus the other day we had a much weaker LP sit right over PA and it brought temps into the 40s! I'm going with the overall trend of the winter + climatology for these types of events, and I'm going to forecast no more than 2" for here.

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