hckyplayer8 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 So what are the chances of the models running the Northern most energy ahead so the mid stream vort can phase with the Southern shortwave instead of the Northern energy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 So what are the chances of the models running the Northern most energy ahead so the mid stream vort can phase with the Southern shortwave instead of the Northern energy... For when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 For when? End of week storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 The Euro seems to have that look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 The ridge (as Mike stated earlier) is way off the west coast, so this will be a classic cutter with a changeover to snow across the western half of the state Friday night into Saturday with high winds. Now if that ridge were over the four corners.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 The ridge (as Mike stated earlier) is way off the west coast, so this will be a classic cutter with a changeover to snow across the western half of the state Friday night into Saturday with high winds. Now if that ridge were over the four corners.... I was scrutinizing the 500mb a bit with the 12z Euro today and to my eye it almost looked like it tried to pull off a triple phase (or at least had the pieces) with the southern stream energy on the Texas Gulf Coast, the energy in the heartland via the Pac Jet , and a shortwave just above the ND border that eventually gets incorporated into the major bomb the euro progged today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 The nam keeps trying to enhance the precip along the 0°c line @ 850 Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 See. Here is what I am getting at. 12z 0z See how the GFS is phasing the midstream vort in with the Northern branch on the 12z? Then on the 0z the energies are kept farther apart. According to good ol' JB, it is a bias of the model...and personally one that I have seen verified over and over. IF we could get a phase between the midstream and Southern energies, and get the Northern branch s/w to come through fast enough to act like a 50/50... Or am out in a la la land pipe dream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 New European another deep run, and is back on the other side of the apps running a low up eastern PA and straight up the Hudson. So once again Euro showing potential for especially true central to see a rain to snow scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Question, can someone tell me what the pressure was for the March '93 Superstorm at our approximate latitude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 See. Here is what I am getting at. 12z 0z See how the GFS is phasing the midstream vort in with the Northern branch on the 12z? Then on the 0z the energies are kept farther apart. According to good ol' JB, it is a bias of the model...and personally one that I have seen verified over and over. IF we could get a phase between the midstream and Southern energies, and get the Northern branch s/w to come through fast enough to act like a 50/50... Or am out in a la la land pipe dream? Are you asking if it is possible for something similar to happen with this system that happened with the last one? Ala, the northern energy outruns and flattens the flow so it doesn't cut? Of course with the last system, this setup ended up causing a total whiff to the south rather than an amped up system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Question, can someone tell me what the pressure was for the March '93 Superstorm at our approximate latitude? The day of the storm, KLNS reported an average pressure of 986 for the day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 The day of the storm, KLNS reported an average pressure of 986 for the day! Oh what it was like to be in a "sweet spot". We all miss that I'm sure. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Severe thunderstorms on Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Severe thunderstorms on Friday? I want severe thunderstorms followed by wind-whipped snow. Go 0Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 I want severe thunderstorms followed by wind-whipped snow. Go 0Z Euro. Yeah, least nights Euro would definitely be some interesting weather.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 seems like 2012 is picking up where 11 left off, in regards to the high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 seems like 2012 is picking up where 11 left off, in regards to the high winds. The last 4 years in the Valley have seemed like a wind tunnel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 21, 2012 Author Share Posted February 21, 2012 12z gfs nothing like the euro...goes west of apps through buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 12z gfs nothing like the euro...goes west of apps through buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 The last 4 years in the Valley have seemed like a wind tunnel. I've had fascia pulled off my roof 4 times and siding twice in 3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 12z gfs nothing like the euro...goes west of apps through buffalo. The euro is only good at showing OTS or lakes cutters. Big east coast bombs are trolls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 The last 4 years in the Valley have seemed like a wind tunnel. yes i agree. and so do my shingles, my soffit and facia, siding etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Looks like the warm beat goes on with the latest CPC 15 day through March 5 showing warmer than average through most of the east. Don Sutherland over on the Medium Range Discussion says warmer than average for all of March in the east. Don has pretty much been nailing it all winter so far. Still on pace for a top ten least snowfall for Harrisburg. And the snow climo clock is ticking louder and louder. I love a good blizzard as much as the next guy but getting in 6 rounds of golf so far plus a lot of range time this winter has been awesome. Can't recall my game in such good shape so early in the year. Of course with that said I have no chance for a breakout year . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Flurries here. 35F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Still on pace for a top ten least snowfall for Harrisburg. This would have to be top 5, top 3, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 This would have to be top 5, top 3, right? what is the official tally right now at MDT? I have 13.25" 07-08 i had 17.75" and 08-09 16.5" so as of now this (11-12) is the worst in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 This would have to be top 5, top 3, right? I had started a database for Harrisburg precip climo last year (have not been able to complete it yet) but so far I know of a few seasons that have had less snow than 11-12 (12.5" from Oct 11 to present)... but without october it would def be close to least snow ever... 97-98 was just over 10" 94-95 had about 9" total I think there were a few seasons in the 30s and 40s that did not see much snow but need to look into that... more than likely just odd coincidence but interesting observation anyway... just based on these 3 listed seasons... we had the big storm in march 93 then the end of following year's winter (94-95) didn't see much snow... january 96 storm then end of following year (97-98) didnt see much snow... Feb 2010 storms and you guessed it... end of following years winter (2011-12) didnt see much snow... *edit: I did find this climate summary from NWS from Jan 1 2006 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/txt/HAR2005.txt "HARRISBURG`S 5 LEAST SNOWY YEARS (as of 1/1/06): 1937-38 8.8 INCHES 1994-95 9.0 INCHES 1949-50 9.8 INCHES 1930-31 10.3 INCHES 1997-98 10.9 INCHES"* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Any correlation as to how many of those years were Ninas? I keep hearing we may go Nino next year. 1) Does it ever stay neutral? 2) Historically speaking that has seemed to be bad for us as well, but I believe 2009-2010 was a rare Nino that went our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Looks like the warm beat goes on with the latest CPC 15 day through March 5 showing warmer than average through most of the east. Don Sutherland over on the Medium Range Discussion says warmer than average for all of March in the east. Don has pretty much been nailing it all winter so far. Still on pace for a top ten least snowfall for Harrisburg. And the snow climo clock is ticking louder and louder. I love a good blizzard as much as the next guy but getting in 6 rounds of golf so far plus a lot of range time this winter has been awesome. Can't recall my game in such good shape so early in the year. Of course with that said I have no chance for a breakout year . what is the official tally right now at MDT? I have 13.25" 07-08 i had 17.75" and 08-09 16.5" so as of now this (11-12) is the worst in awhile. Not sure if we get top 10 lowest all time at Harrisburg. MDT is currently at 12.5. 94-95 was 9.0, 97-98 was 11.4, 01-02 was 10.6....while 91-92 was 12.9, 07-08 was 14.0, and 08-09 was 15.5. You have to take into account the stinker winters in the 70s, plus those in the 30s. There were some lame ones in the 40s/50s as well. Festus, where did you get your data? I was wondering because the other thing; MDT was only in existence since 41, measurements were taken elsewhere prior to that. I could never find good data for Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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