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Central PA Winter Cont'd cont'd


The Iceman

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Well I suppose I'll acknowledge the longer range with current storm fail nearly complete. Models seem to be agreeing on a pretty decent amplification at the end of the week (D 5-7) with various opinions on the storm system that results. 12-18z GFS/CMC more northern stream developing a lakes low into a pretty deep storm in eastern Canada. Basically some rain, drop a front thru and perhaps a pretty decent LES/orographic regime behind for the mountains. The European, in it's infinite mid range wisdom, phased southern energy and dropped a bomb on the east. running the southern apps before passing over philly at 984mb enroute to 968 in Maine. Such a dynamic storm would likely equate to a rain to snow storm for at least the west. You know the drill, i'd watch the period for some kind of storm but don't expect any kind of a consensus for awhile.

Long range continues to look active and stormy in the models, but I don't expect things temp wise to get overly colder than average.. despite the MJO forecast to either reside mainly in 2 or move thru 2 to 3. Those are generally the colder phases but with the NAO/AO forecast to stay pretty positve (AO ramping up even more) and the PNA heading to negative it certainly won't help matters. Positive AO locks the arctic air back up over the poles and that coupled with the utter lack of a snowpack over the north central doesn't bode well for getting overly cold airmasses to us... and the cold air that does get to us ends up modified because of aforementioned lack of snow. I suspect if we manage to eventually get a storm in position to snow on us it's going to be a deal like today where it was quite a nice day up here north of the storm but down in VA it was colder under the clouds and snow. Then after the storm temps quickly modify to normal or somewhat above.

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If it hits 60 on Wednesday, I'm going to have a hard time supporting the winter effort. This may be the week I officially declare that this war is unwinnable.

Yep, i agree. I'm starting to get the itch to work in the yard!

I'm supposed to reach 63 on Thursday. Time to take practice outdoors!

In my mind, i'm already there.

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If it hits 60 on Wednesday, I'm going to have a hard time supporting the winter effort. This may be the week I officially declare that this war is unwinnable.

:lmao::ee:

Reminds me of this: http://www.theonion.com/articles/war-on-string-may-be-unwinnable-says-cat-general,9636/

I take it all in stride.....I've seen enough end games where everyone was hugging and declaring winter dead, only to have the Old Man do a Jason and pop up in the background. Up here that usually takes the form of 1) warm spell causes everyone to declare spring is here 2) give me a funny look when I say it can still snow and tell me they never remember it snowing much late in March/April 3) when its snowing in early April, whine that central PA never ever gets a decent spring and it always snows in April.

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Oh I'm not going all wpsxpxvt or whatever his screen name is and declaring winter over, pissing on its grave and bangin' it's mama, I'm just saying that if we get a couple more 60+ degree days where I can walk through the city without feeling a need to bundle up or even wear pants, I'm going to want that to continue. Then I'm going to want severe weather.

I'm pretty sure we're going to get one solid shot... and if a 93 redux occurs I'm all-in, but I think realism is going on here.

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Oh I'm not going all wpsxpxvt or whatever his screen name is and declaring winter over, pissing on its grave and bangin' it's mama, I'm just saying that if we get a couple more 60+ degree days where I can walk through the city without feeling a need to bundle up or even wear pants, I'm going to want that to continue. Then I'm going to want severe weather.

I'm pretty sure we're going to get one solid shot... and if a 93 redux occurs I'm all-in, but I think realism is going on here.

Yeah, I know. It's going to be tough to go back. It was even tough last Feb when we had those two days that got well into the 60s.

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:lmao::ee:

Reminds me of this: http://www.theonion....t-general,9636/

I take it all in stride.....I've seen enough end games where everyone was hugging and declaring winter dead, only to have the Old Man do a Jason and pop up in the background. Up here that usually takes the form of 1) warm spell causes everyone to declare spring is here 2) give me a funny look when I say it can still snow and tell me they never remember it snowing much late in March/April 3) when its snowing in early April, whine that central PA never ever gets a decent spring and it always snows in April.

yesterday my daughter said, " i am so glad good weather is here"! i chuckled and told her, though i'm ready for spring too, don't be shocked some morning late in march you wake up with a half a foot of snow on the ground.

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Here's my forecast for this week. It's May apparently.

Wednesday Partly cloudy in the morning, then mostly cloudy. High of 59F. Winds from the SW at 5-10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Wednesday Night Overcast with a chance of rain in the evening, then partly cloudy. Low of 41F. Winds from the SW at 5-10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

Thursday Overcast. High of 66F. Winds from the South at 5-15 mph.

Thursday Night Overcast in the evening, then mostly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 48F. Winds from the SSE at 5-20 mph.

Friday Overcast with a chance of rain in the morning, then partly cloudy with a chance of rain. High of 72F. Winds from the SSW at 5-15 mph. Chance of rain 50% with rainfall amounts near 0.2 in. possible.

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Wow what a bomb on the Euro this afternoon..takes a western Kentucky to PA/OH border to Buf track enroute to deepening to 960 mb in Quebec. Close proximity to the SE of the track of the low would likely knock down rain totals in central/western PA, so theres that. Also would be one heck of a windstorm behind it, probably at least an areawise wind advisory with 10m winds even showing some 50-55kt gusts in places. GFS and Euro seem to be in reasonable agreement given the range on this potential storm. Theres just something about a big GLC that magically make the models show some actual mid range forecasting skill. Now yesterdays 12z Euro had this rapidly deepening storm going over Philly, which would bring the possibility of seeing some kind of rain to snow scenario in the central/west. I suppose getting a more progessive and less phased solution to take the low more southeast can be in the realm of possibility, but i'm not liking the 500 western ridge alignment anchored all the way off the west coast.

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