Paweatherguy1 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GFS looks like garbage...actually went south. Time to put this one to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 What does Horst say/think? didn't wake up nearly in time to make it for his morning discussion...I may run into wxmeddler today on campus though and I bet he was there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GFS looks like garbage...actually went south. Time to put this one to bed. Not till tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Not till tonight. YOu said that if 12z didn't show a tick north, it was over...now you are waiting till tonight? Look, I like your enthusiasm, but let's be realistic. To expect a 100-150 mile shift north at this point is hoping for a miracle. This one is not happening...sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 YOu said that if 12z didn't show a tick north, it was over...now you are waiting till tonight? Look, I like your enthusiasm, but let's be realistic. To expect a 100-150 mile shift north at this point is hoping for a miracle. This one is not happening...sorry. well a 50 miles shift is all us in southern PA really need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 12z GFS was just awful...kick in the groin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think we're toast. Shoot, I'd be worried if I was in Baltimore. The NAM is essentially on its own and the rest of the guidance isn't budging. Well, if anything, its heading south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 well a 50 miles shift is all us in southern PA really need Yeah, I guess...but I mean, even that at this point, you might get what, 2-4, 1-3 inches? To get anything significant, you are going to need that 100-150 mile shift, and if you are more than 25 miles off the PA/MD border, you need that 100 mile shift to get anything at all. For the majority of this board, this is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So no snow? Sweet (serious, I want a precip-free weekend). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So much for the rainstorm idea of a couple days ago. Good call EasternUSwx. This is dead for PA heads. Bring on spring already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Ggem is now spreading light qpf into southern pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 YOu said that if 12z didn't show a tick north, it was over...now you are waiting till tonight? Look, I like your enthusiasm, but let's be realistic. To expect a 100-150 mile shift north at this point is hoping for a miracle. This one is not happening...sorry. NAM come north, ggem is more north. Still got models showing some snow. Not time to bail just yet. If I bailed in 09 when the models were all south till a day out I would have looked silly cause I got 15" when the day before was only showing 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 NAM come north, ggem is more north. Still got models showing some snow. Not time to bail just yet. If I bailed in 09 when the models were all south till a day out I would have looked silly cause I got 15" when the day before was only showing 1-3" I'm hanging in with you. I can remember several times where there were major last-minute shifts. When I was in high school (1999-2003), there was a storm that was supposed to dump a ton of snow on Lancaster. I went to bed expecting a white landscape when I woke up. 8 hours later, no snow at all, but Philly was getting hammered. We ended up with nothing from that system, and that was forecast to be a sure thing within 12 hours of the event. We can do our best to analyze/interpret/rationalize the data we see, but in the end, it's nature, and nature can be an unpredictable b**** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 NAM come north, ggem is more north. Still got models showing some snow. Not time to bail just yet. If I bailed in 09 when the models were all south till a day out I would have looked silly cause I got 15" when the day before was only showing 1-3" This is Friday, we are talking a storm for Sunday. I think you are right on this one, I think on later runs you will see more of the precipitation shield extending into southern pa. I don't think we will see a huge amount of snow here, but maybe a 1-3, or 2-4. Then again I could be wrong and we just see flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 yeah, i'm with Zak too. Though i have low expectations, i have seen some strange $hit. Like the october storm, when everyone around had 6-9" ( and some places less then 2 miles) and i had 3" and nothing on paved surfaces..so, i will wait. I also have no science to back me up, but for some reason, it usually will come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is Friday, we are talking a storm for Sunday. I think you are right on this one, I think on later runs you will see more of the precipitation shield extending into southern pa. I don't think we will see a huge amount of snow here, but maybe a 1-3, or 2-4. Then again I could be wrong and we just see flurries. Will gladly take anything at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Neffsville, you're talking about 12/30/2000. There was an insane east/west gradient with that storm. I will never forget waking up early to see the snow only to see stars above and a huge cloud bank to my east. There was measurable snow as close as Gap with that one. So yeah, there is still time. I hope I jumped off this one too quickly, we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 yeah, i'm with Zak too. Though i have low expectations, i have seen some strange $hit. Like the october storm, when everyone around had 6-9" ( and some places less then 2 miles) and i had 3" and nothing on paved surfaces..so, i will wait. I also have no science to back me up, but for some reason, it usually will come north. This still bewilders me. I had 5.8" and 3" or so on bust 4th Street in the city. We need to figure out bird miles between us and our Wormlysburg brethren. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Neffsville, you're talking about 12/30/2000. There was an insane east/west gradient with that storm. I will never forget waking up early to see the snow only to see stars above and a huge cloud bank to my east. There was measurable snow as close as Gap with that one. So yeah, there is still time. I hope I jumped off this one too quickly, we'll see what happens. That's the one.... I was so disappointed when I woke up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 YOu said that if 12z didn't show a tick north, it was over...now you are waiting till tonight? Look, I like your enthusiasm, but let's be realistic. To expect a 100-150 mile shift north at this point is hoping for a miracle. This one is not happening...sorry. We're probably in the same boat as the State College to Williamsport crew based on the orientation of the precip. We need some pretty dramatic shifts or it's over. But I think the extreme south central crew has a little more reason for optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This still bewilders me. I had 5.8" and 3" or so on bust 4th Street in the city. We need to figure out bird miles between us and our Wormlysburg brethren. back in the day, i could have broken a window in your 2nd floor with a baseball i would bet a mile or less the way the bird flies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Interesting, this guy knows his stuff! psuhoffman Posted 16 minutes ago 1,165 posts Joined December 3, 2010 Location:Manchester, MD 46°F NW @ 9 MPH Looking at the h5 flow and where the confluence is, this does have room to adjust north. I have also seen this depiction of the heavy precip banding moving into WV then just dying out northeast of there time and again and usually it is wrong. The globals have major issues with the point of transfer when a low is inland over the southeast and too many times they make mistakes during the process or redevelopment along the NC coast. This more then anything else seems to lead to this "north trend" in the last 36 hours we usually see as they resolve this problem. I have much less confidence of a northward trend in a Nina then in other years but I would lean towards a northward adjustment with this storm in the final 36 hours. Back to top Quote MultiQuote Report Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Done I'd bet. Euro's south of its 0z and much more strung out, slower and flatter. Only .05 gets to DC and east if the Apps is weak all around southward. Not a good run for anyone, much less so for us. The NAM's on its own basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I said rally you buttholes! Let's go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Euro really does seem to say it's time for Dandy Don Meredith to sing his song. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Only rally we'll see for the weekend are the daisies who've been up through the ground for two weeks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Well piss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I said rally you buttholes! Let's go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So THAT'S where our purple squirrel came from! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So THAT'S where our purple squirrel came from! i've been saving this for an occasion such as this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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