hckyplayer8 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Euro looks like poo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Few mets saying euro looks fishy. Looked great up to hr 60 then randomly goes flat. Don't think that happens. Northern stream will weaken more. 12z is come back time. Go look at jma that's what I think will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Euro looks like poo. I will say that this is gonna be a tough one to swallow if it ends up fringing or missing PA altogether. Practically handed a miller A Gulf storm via the MJO pulse currently making the 8-1 cycle right at the time of the month when most everyone was looking for that nice storm to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Few mets saying euro looks fishy. Looked great up to hr 60 then randomly goes flat. Don't think that happens. Northern stream will weaken more. 12z is come back time. Go look at jma that's what I think will happen. I hope it at least makes it that far north. That'd give us southerners a solid 4-8, possibly more with a slight shift north. It'd be even better if it makes it north enough to blanket the eastern part of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 3z srefs shifted pretty good northward. .25" down my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 3z srefs shifted pretty good northward. .25" down my way. Yea snow probs seem to jive well overall with the 0z NAM. Lots of very low probs of 1+ and even 4+ over lower half of PA...must be a few weenie runs in the spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Nam bout the same. 12z we see north shift I am going to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 **** it, rally time. Bang those drums dammit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 **** it, rally time. Bang those drums dammit! found 4 guys from CPA with their Rally caps on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I tend to be the positive one on here, and all day yesterday I sat quietly thinking that this baby was coming north. There's still some hope for us southern guys I guess, but geez, it just isn't looking good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Pathetic stats update: 2.4" MTD 8.0" since 1 Dec (18.9" BN) 17.1" for the winter (Still more snow has fallen in Oct. than the rest of the winter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I tend to be the positive one on here, and all day yesterday I sat quietly thinking that this baby was coming north. There's still some hope for us southern guys I guess, but geez, it just isn't looking good right now. Agreed. JMA is really the only solution I like, everything else has it sliding south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 12z NAM makes it a good dead more north... .25 line now through southern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 12z NAM makes it a good dead more north... .25 line now through southern PA. I think it will shift another 50-100 miles north at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think it will shift another 50-100 miles north at the end. WHy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I will say that this is gonna be a tough one to swallow if it ends up fringing or missing PA altogether. Practically handed a miller A Gulf storm via the MJO pulse currently making the 8-1 cycle right at the time of the month when most everyone was looking for that nice storm to happen. It is going to be tough. Problem is, I think all the regions were looking to this time frame to give them something good to salvage this lousy winter. However it really takes something special to pound everyone so there is most likely going to be a loser in all of this, and right now it looks like it might be us and our friends to the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 WHy? Confluence won't be as storng as modeled and the southern vort will be able to amplify more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Confluence won't be as storng as modeled and the southern vort will be able to amplify more. I agree with you. This is a nina, and that argues well for a north drift in this type of a set-up. NAM clwon map puts southern York, Lancaster, Adams, and Franklin in the 4 inch territory. Plenty of time for the models to drift north, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It is going to be tough. Problem is, I think all the regions were looking to this time frame to give them something good to salvage this lousy winter. However it really takes something special to pound everyone so there is most likely going to be a loser in all of this, and right now it looks like it might be us and our friends to the North. Both of us have some more time than the south people. We have about 4-5 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Confluence won't be as storng as modeled and the southern vort will be able to amplify more. 100 mile north shift is a pretty big jump at this juncture, but that would solidly put everyone south of I-80 in some decent qpf so I hope your hunch is right. Any other year a North adjustment is almost a guarantee but I am leery since other guidance still seems to be much further South than the NAM and GFS from what I can gather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 100 mile north shift is a pretty big jump at this juncture, but that would solidly put everyone south of I-80 in some decent qpf so I hope your hunch is right. Any other year a North adjustment is almost a guarantee but I am leery since other guidance still seems to be much further South than the NAM and GFS from what I can gather. HPC threw those other models out due to handling issues of the upper levels. Each run now I notice a sharper southern stream and less confluence. 0z tonight will be telling and I believe it will make a jump tonight. If not oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 HPC threw those other models out due to handling issues of the upper levels. Each run now I notice a sharper southern stream and less confluence. 0z tonight will be telling and I believe it will make a jump tonight. If not oh well. That is good to know. I didn't realize the other models had issues. The other positive is the storm is still over 48 hours out so if a slight weakening in confluence is going to happen the NAM just may not have picked up on it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 12z NAM mauls the state of VA. MDT sees maybe 2" if you believe the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Both of us have some more time than the south people. We have about 4-5 weeks. True, but by March sun angle and warm ground will.... I'm only joking! The only thing that really changes towards March for me is I hope that the events can hit during the overnight periods but that is certainly not a requirement if you get the right setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This storm is a pain in the *** to forecast for, especially PA/MD border counties! If there is even a small 50 mile shift north, York/Lancaster will see their biggest snow of the winter. If there is no further north shift, they get another advisory snowfall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 This storm is a pain in the *** to forecast for, especially PA/MD border counties! If there is even a small 50 mile shift north, York/Lancaster will see their biggest snow of the winter. If there is no further north shift, they get another advisory snowfall! yep right now we are in the 2-4" range(which is awesome for this winter)...any other N shift and we may have our first warning event of 2012...agree with Eastern, i don't think we're done coming north yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 yep right now we are in the 2-4" range(which is awesome for this winter)...any other N shift and we may have our first warning event of 2012...agree with Eastern, i don't think we're done coming north yet... What does Horst say/think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 What does Horst say/think? No update since Wednesday. I'm hoping for one today. http://snowball.millersville.edu/~cws/SpecialWeatherDiscussion.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Clown map shows central Pa. surrounded by snow. Someone want to remove the dome? :lol: At least it is moving north. http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=CCX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Clown map shows central Pa. surrounded by snow. Someone want to remove the dome? :lol: At least it is moving north. http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=CCX The good thing is, as currently depicted, my location gets nothing. Personally, I don't really want another 1-2 inch nuisance snowfall. We've had enough of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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