My CWG post from earlier today

[usedtobe]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/another-iffy-snow-threat-in-the-offing/2012/02/14/gIQA6yHqDR_blog.html#pagebreak

The euro ensemble mean still likes the storm so it's not totally over. I do think the plethora or impulses in the fast flow make it hard to get a big hit but that said. It is still worth monitoring.

[ravensrule]

http://www.washingto....html#pagebreak

The euro ensemble mean still likes the storm so it's not totally over. I do think the plethora or impulses in the fast flow make it hard to get a big hit but that said. It is still worth monitoring.

Thanks Wes great read like usual, i don't think we need a big hit 2-4" or 3-6" would be amazing around here.

[usedtobe]

Thanks Wes great read like usual, i don't think we need a big hit 2-4" or 3-6" would be amazing around here.

In a nina year, the 3-6 would be a big deal at least this year and with this pattern. The pattern shown on the models doesn't fit the nina 4 inch or greater composite very well. That doesn't mean it couldn't happen as there haven't been that many events for dca and I have not looked at BWI so the stats could be somewhat different for there and IAD.

[yoda]

18z GFS brings you back in Wes

[usedtobe]

18z GFS brings you back in Wes

It doesn't change anything. I essentially said I slightly favored the more suppressed solution over that of the 00Z euro and think that still is the more likely scenario but not by much. the euro ensembles and 18Z gfs say to stay tuned. The GFS still has boundary layer issues but probably not bad enough to keep it from snowing (I say that without looking at the forecast soundings).