tcutter Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 from DT's FB page a few min ago........... "*** OZ NAM MODEL ANALYSIS *** the NAM is a SHORT RANGE MODEL that runs out to 84 hrs but past 60 hrs is NOT very good. Still it does have SOME VALUE . The new 0z FEB 16 run of the NAM shows SIGNIFICANT snow falling over central and Northern Shenandoah Valley NW 1/3 of VA all of DCA/ BWI MD with the North edge of the precip getting up to PA MD border. This is is VERY CLOSE agreement with the 12x euro ensemble" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 where is ray at to tell us we are nuts for looking at a model that has been showing a rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 where is ray at to tell us we are nuts for looking at a model that has been showing a rainstorm probably checking air fare prices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 from DT's FB page a few min ago........... "*** OZ NAM MODEL ANALYSIS *** the NAM is a SHORT RANGE MODEL that runs out to 84 hrs but past 60 hrs is NOT very good. Still it does have SOME VALUE . The new 0z FEB 16 run of the NAM shows SIGNIFICANT snow falling over central and Northern Shenandoah Valley NW 1/3 of VA all of DCA/ BWI MD with the North edge of the precip getting up to PA MD border. This is is VERY CLOSE agreement with the 12x euro ensemble" All of a sudden we have HP also: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 where is ray at to tell us we are nuts for looking at a model that has been showing a rainstorm It's the truth. No real cold air source. Odds are really stacked against a snowstorm. AS hurricane mentioned..maybe some sloppy seconds with a few inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 All of a sudden we have HP also: steve, the gefs have shown 1024-1026 high pressure for this storm. Thats not going to cut it though for our region, maybe sne not here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It's the truth. No real cold air source. Odds are really stacked against a snowstorm. AS hurricane mentioned..maybe some sloppy seconds with a few inches of snow There is.a high to the north on the Nam, and that would help. Anxious to see the rest of the 0z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 There is.a high to the north on the Nam,and that would help. that would do very little for our like i was saying to steve. Thats a very weak high pressure, and its not in an ideal spot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Can't put much credence in 84hr NAM but it shows the kind of partially phased solution that could work out for I-95. Too much phasing in 18z GFS for I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 that would do very little for our like i was saying to steve. Thats a very weak high pressure, and its not in an ideal spot.. Makes it fairly cold at least verbatim because of the timing. Let us see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Can't put much credence in 84hr NAM but it shows the kind of partially phased solution that could work out for I-95. Too much phasing in 18z GFS for I-95. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 through 51hrs, the northern stream seems faster at h5 compared to the 18z, dampenind hgts along the ec a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 through 51hrs, the northern stream seems faster at h5 compared to the 18z, dampenind hgts along the ec a tad. Compared to the nam, should come a bit more north. Southern Vort a little faster, and heights a little higher on GFS. Near EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is the uk at 72... yet another solution. Now we have what appears to be a closed 500 dropping in from the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 this is going to phase later in the game as i see it now through 60 hrs. The northern stream is a good bit faster, not really diving into the southern shortwave as the 18z had. The hgts along the ec continue to be supressed more compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 through 51hrs, the northern stream seems faster at h5 compared to the 18z, dampenind hgts along the ec a tad. Yea less phasing than 18z. Should be further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS has a juicy low in the Western GOM at 60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS has a juicy low in the Western GOM at 60 hrs. its just starting to phase in the northern stream around hr 72...hr 75 has a sub 1004 over atl...with elongation of 2ndry starting to pop off sc coast..hgts along east coast deff less amplified... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Headed toward the Euro. . . . definite move that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 this is going to phase later in the game as i see it now through 60 hrs. The northern stream is a good bit faster, not really diving into the southern shortwave as the 18z had. The hgts along the ec continue to be supressed more compared to 18z Yep, definitely a later phase, should be nowhere near 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 0z is a north and west bomb..city may get into the act to...storm slides right off se va coast...its a ray martin marshmellow flake hybrid denting snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 ccb cranks over the region hrs 87-93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 ccb cranks over the region hrs 87-93 Is it snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Amazing that we can't get an event with temps below freezing in the heart of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Is it snow? im assuming it is, from 925mb up in the atmosphere its below freezing...the surface could be torched...so who knows, but it looks like its snow thickness wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS is a classic....burb special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 nice gfs 0z run, need a nice euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The kind of partially phased solution we need. Ukie posted above looks similar to GFS at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 ccb cranks over the region hrs 87-93 Sweet! You see the differences between the southern s/w on the GFS compared to the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 starts off as rain, in city...burbs prob as snow...but yea the burbs get hit hard this run..city does decent to. Thanks. I think in this pattern, we would be very lucky if the 00z GFS is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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