iceman56 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Did it accumulate or evaporate? More likely sublimate in the near zero DP's... Good to see sane discussion going in. The ultimate outcome on this is still very much 'up in the air'. I'm actually feeling more confident about seeing something non-liquid out of this here in the NW burbs as opposed to a wide right. Unfortuately we'll be working with thawed ground just like in late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 JBs latest from early this PM "There are 6 major factors I spoke about yesterday and what you are seeing is modeling.. the GFS lining them all up for the maximum effect and others, most notably the European for the least. Interestingly enough the Euro may be throwing us a bone as to its intention as it tries to turn this up a bit near the Carolinas before going . My take is that while the GFS hitting on all cylinders and scoring the monster coup ( which by the way, would have rain in the big cities from DC to Boston for a time) is not the correct answer, neither is the euro as its map looks wrong with the max in the lakes that focused and strong. That should be strung out and weaker and this will allow the southern energy to come up and some energy left behind to dig in. My take is the track of this is New Orleans to between Hatteras and Norfolk and then to around Nantucket ( 40 n, 70w). There is really is so much going on here that I am taking the midpoint of what I see as the options and also refuse to believe at this point that a strongly positive NAO will simply allow a storm to escape like its blocked. So what is going on is that alot of cooks spoil the model broth and we have one that cant resolve it, the other that tries to in a way that would lead to a monster late season interior la nina event, which by the way loves to happen west of the I-95 cities in years when snow as fallen in October. So essentially I have no changes, and dont think that a model run one way or the other, until we see the players and their relative weights can be trusted. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 More likely sublimate in the near zero DP's... Our DP's are in the 20s... sometimes that's higher than in mid summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Our DP's are in the 20s... sometimes that's higher than in mid summer Sorry, I guessed -- didn't bother to look. I see it's 22 right now. I thought it would be lower than that with temps in the 30's in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 gfs indiv ens members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Sorry, I guessed -- didn't bother to look. I see it's 22 right now. I thought it would be lower than that with temps in the 30's in the afternoon. Our DP's have the weird quality of staying in the same general range most of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 gfs indiv ens members lol at P006. It looks like they're pretty evenly split OTS, rainstorm and snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneschwartz Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hurricane Shwartz going with the Euro ftw oh and lol, it's getting ugly in the MA forum : Hard to call off any threat to mid-Atlantic at this early hour, especially with so much flip-flopping of the models. EURO is the only one that has been consistent for 3 straight runs. And EURO ensembles are stronger and farther north than operational. I showed EURO on-air because: a) it's the most accurate model overall the GFS solution looks too different from other models c) it's the only real forecast question in the next 5 days d)snow doesn't need to fall in Philly for it to be a story here...we cover from Southern DE to the Poconos. I hope the models fall in line in the next 2 days, but with that fast Pacific flow, it's not likely. Glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Glenn, thanks for checking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Glenn, thanks for checking in. yes......thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Glad to hear you chime in here Hurricane It is amazing how the EC continues to be the one of choice. Only a few "coups" or upsets from the others in recent winters Thanks for doin what you do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Why have there been more than 50 posts in the last 8 hours about a storm which the GFS says is rain and every other op seems to say is OTS? Good grief... At least it is only 7 pages for a possible rain event... 20 pages in the MA, 31 in NE and 20 in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Every model run till Friday morning is pretty much a crapshoot with so many s/w's running around, unless all the models suddenly become in line with each other. Recon data does help, but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 gfs indiv ens members Two days later not much taken off the table. The GFS solutions do seem too neat, many sloppy short waves hanging around plus it is stronger with the short wave entering the western conus and we have to wait for nearly to the start up time for that to be sampled (unless some Pacific missions are planned). IDK the pattern seems too progressive for me to buy into the op GFS solution, would probably if I had to opt for an ec ensemble like solution knowing very well my chances of being right given this volatility are slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Tony, the 0z last night, 12z this morning, and the 0z tonight all have Pacific recon. Not that it helped much today I agree, the longwave pattern still seems fishy to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Glenn, thank you for replying to my post. We've met each other in person quite a few times, so Im glad to see you still posting in this forum. You da man! Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Glenn Thank you for your insight on here tonight always enjoy your post on this site and you'r on air discussions keep up the great work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneschwartz Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I showed a stat tonight that by Feb. 15th we had: 2009-10 72.1" 2010-11 43.9" 2011-12 4.0" It's amazing that considering how snowy the past 2 winters were, how little snow we had after Feb. 15th Glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm hoping we can all make out this weekend with something, but I get the inclination this is just not the winter for an SECS or more. We were all set to get 5-8" out here last weekend, and we only ended up with a measly 2". Taking the science out, it just doesn't feel like it is in the cards. I'd say any model at this range has only nominal value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcostell Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I showed a stat tonight that by Feb. 15th we had: 2009-10 72.1" 2010-11 43.9" 2011-12 4.0" It's amazing that considering how snowy the past 2 winters were, how little snow we had after Feb. 15th Glenn Glenn- Will we end that trend this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneschwartz Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Glenn- Will we end that trend this weekend? As others have said, we need to "thread the needle" to get a decent snowfall. It's too warm at the start, AND there's no blocking. According to my research, you can't get a KU-type storm with this combination. We would need a cutoff low to develop (and that's not happening). The storm will move too fast, and in order for the storm to get close enough to provide heavy precip, it will also have to drag up warm air. Hope for a sloppy few inches, and be thrilled if we get it (subject to change, of course). Glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcostell Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 As others have said, we need to "thread the needle" to get a decent snowfall. It's too warm at the start, AND there's no blocking. According to my research, you can't get a KU-type storm with this combination. We would need a cutoff low to develop (and that's not happening). The storm will move too fast, and in order for the storm to get close enough to provide heavy precip, it will also have to drag up warm air. Hope for a sloppy few inches, and be thrilled if we get it (subject to change, of course). Glenn Any snow is good snow! Thanks for your time and "tolerance", Glenn- its a credit to your professionalism, sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I showed a stat tonight that by Feb. 15th we had: 2009-10 72.1" 2010-11 43.9" 2011-12 4.0" It's amazing that considering how snowy the past 2 winters were, how little snow we had after Feb. 15th Glenn well that 4" is closer to the avg. then the 43.9" good thing you adjusted your winter numbers last month but we still have march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 What, no obsessive analysis of the 0z NAM in here? The NAM now gets precip almost to Philly. It's closer to fully phasing the two streams. Let's see if the GFS holds serve, backs off a little, or *gulp* goes even farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 What, no obsessive analysis of the 0z NAM in here? The NAM now gets precip almost to Philly. It's closer to fully phasing the two streams. Let's see if the GFS holds serve, backs off a little, or *gulp* goes even farther west. that surprised me too.....i've been floating to all the other forums to see what they think........the best i came come up with is that the NAM made a slight move towards the GFS??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 What, no obsessive analysis of the 0z NAM in here? it looks interesting but its extended nam. waiting for 0z gfs, euro i saw this post some where else and it summed it up for me Looking at Sim radar at 84 hours it looks like the NAM wants to turn the corner real bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I showed a stat tonight that by Feb. 15th we had: 2009-10 72.1" 2010-11 43.9" 2011-12 4.0" It's amazing that considering how snowy the past 2 winters were, how little snow we had after Feb. 15th Glenn Interesing note Glenn. In this La Nina we'll probably get the bulk of our snow Feb 15th and forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Love the look of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 What, no obsessive analysis of the 0z NAM in here? The NAM now gets precip almost to Philly. It's closer to fully phasing the two streams. Let's see if the GFS holds serve, backs off a little, or *gulp* goes even farther west. its ptless to discuss the nam past 48 hrs...Once past 48hrs with short range models its a coin flip. They are mesoscale models they key on little things that can make a huge difference down the road in the run. Thats why you get huge variations from run to run with the nam. The mesoscale models, and im sure adam may correct me here cause im not sure if im correct on this, but they are non hydrostatic models, while the globals are static. Basically the globals dont usually have wild run to run shifts because they dont pick up on all the mesoscale stuff, its smoothed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hopefully on the 0Z run, the GFS will show deformation banding again. It's been insistent on the tight comma head the past few runs, so maybe dynamics could work for whomever ends up underneath one of these bands (if it's ideas are right). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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