am19psu Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Spread of the 552dam at 96 on the 12z is Morgantown, WV to Augusta, GA. At 108 in the 0z, it was Green Bay to New Orleans. Either way, questions still outnumber answers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 i've learned not to count on the euro being wrong at this range when it shows the same thing a few times... In general, yes. That's generally the way to go, but given the complexity and speed of the pattern you basically need to throw all of the preconceived notions of the models out the window until we hit the Day 3 range. This one's a true wildcard. Meh...one model is really showing a hit for the most part...other than that, we had one run of the Euro and a few grazes here and there...it really hasn't been a true wildcard. Definitely keeping an eye on but a "lock" either way. I side with Adam -- lean towards suppression at this point. I will say this...I would not be shocked if the Euro sometime in the next three runs shows an East Coast hit. It sometimes has a "burp" once where it will show the opposite of reality before settling on the likely solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 There's rumors of initialization errors on the GFS. Anyone hear anything similar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Ok, so about 5-8 members are solid hits for the East Coast. So, the ensemble mean is spitting out 2-4 for PHL, but I think it is a boom and bust mean. The median is probably 0. Is the Op representative of the OTS camp? Or is in between the OTS members and the EC hitters? There's rumors of initialization errors on the GFS. Anyone hear anything similar? HPC's morning disco said they're tossing the GFS solution because of the errors. I'm not sure if that includes the GEFS as well, but I'd guess they're suspect as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Is the Op representative of the OTS camp? Or is in between the OTS members and the EC hitters? The op is on the extreme northern edge of the guidance at 96, but it is near the mean at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The op is on the extreme northern edge of the guidance at 96, but it is near the mean at 120. so the long and short of it is.... we still don't really know what is going to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 so the long and short of it is.... we still don't really know what is going to happen? Oh hell naw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Oh hell naw Thank you, sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Looks like the EC ensembles are a good bit more amped than the OP at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Oh hell naw Is that a new meteorological term? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The thing i don't like and why i think this is a thread the needle for the city and immediate burbs. You don't have a strong high pressure but on the other hand you do have a 50/50 low which will keep somewhat of a high in place and create confluence. The cold air isn't in place before the storm comes, its coming in as is the storm, which screams bl issues for atleast the coastal plain to start. On the models i have seen crushing the storm to the south are the ones with a dominant northern stream with confluence ripping across the region. The amped solutions, the gfs phase in the northern stream. The problem is we need the northern stream to usher in the cold air. To much of a phase will pump the hgts along the east coast and you get a warm scenario. To much northern stream interaction and you get a suppressed storm. So you need the right amount of phase for a good track and you need that pv sliding across to be positioned well to usher in the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 thats a very well worded discussion......imo Eric always gives good discussions. He is a very cautious forecaster, doesn't hype but will get excited when a snowstorm is coming. Back during the storms of 2009/2010 i would email him and he would get back to me right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The thing i don't like and why i think this is a thread the needle for the city and immediate burbs. You don't have a strong high pressure but on the other hand you do have a 50/50 low which will keep somewhat of a high in place and create confluence. The cold air isn't in place before the storm comes, its coming in as is the storm, which screams bl issues for atleast the coastal plain to start. On the models i have seen crushing the storm to the south are the ones with a dominant northern stream with confluence ripping across the region. The amped solutions, the gfs phase in the northern stream. The problem is we need the northern stream to usher in the cold air. To much of a phase will pump the hgts along the east coast and you get a warm scenario. To much northern stream interaction and you get a suppressed storm. So you need the right amount of phase for a good track and you need that pv sliding across to be positioned well to usher in the cold air. All great points and what I was referring to earlier irt the lack of any real cold air. The quasi 50-50 (50-60?) isnt really helping us....it;'s actually hurting us more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Is that a new meteorological term? I've used that to describe confidence many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I've used that to describe confidence many times. Until Sunday rolls around i think more then a few forecasters are going to be gray, bald, drunk or all three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 All great points and what I was referring to earlier irt the lack of any real cold air. The quasi 50-50 (50-60?) isnt really helping us....it;'s actually hurting us more. I deff think its helping us because without that, talk of snow would not even be thought of this would be a rain event. That pv sliding across is giving us our shot at a storm and allowing this not to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I deff think its helping us because without that, talk of snow would not even be thought of this would be a rain event. That pv sliding across is giving us our shot at a storm and allowing this not to cut. Agreed. The 50/50 is the only thing helping us out with the +NAO right now. This would cut to the lakes without it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I deff think its helping us because without that, talk of snow would not even be thought of this would be a rain event. That pv sliding across is giving us our shot at a storm and allowing this not to cut. this is completely right, without the 50/50 low this storm cuts west. the 50/50 is the main feature that has people thinking an east coast storm with some snow is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I deff think its helping us because without that, talk of snow would not even be thought of this would be a rain event. That pv sliding across is giving us our shot at a storm and allowing this not to cut. if it's too strong and too far southwest it will suppress. That's what the EC is showing. 50/50 is sub 516 over the Gulf of St. Lawerence on the EC, while it's only 520ish over Newfoundland (it's farther northeast) on the GFS. It's not clear cut that you need the 50/50...you need it in the right spot at the right strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 if it's too strong and too far southwest it will suppress. That's what the EC is showing. 50/50 is sub 516 over the Gulf of St. Lawerence on the EC, while it's only 520ish over Newfoundland (it's farther northeast) on the GFS. It's not clear cut that you need the 50/50...you need it in the right spot at the right strength. true, but my pt is, if we didnt have that, the chances of any potential snow event are less likely than with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 true, but my pt is, if we didnt have that, the chances of any potential snow event are less likely than with it I would agree with this...I wanted to make sure folks understand that a 50/50 doesn't necessarily guarantee a hit at all. Not in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Hurricane Shwartz going with the Euro ftw oh and lol, it's getting ugly in the MA forum : I hope the 18Z GFS comes in good or there could be an all out brawl in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Hurricane Shwartz going with the Euro ftw oh and lol, it's getting ugly in the MA forum : i really dont see why you wouldnt///only things showing a storm is gfs and the ens of euro and gfs...till a major op hops in bed i would still favor ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Tom, I'm on Glenn's side too....I see nothing contradictory to what he forecasted or said in his discussion on-air. Seems in this setup, ots is the most logical solution though some folks are suggesting seasonal trends argue otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 18Z GFS is going to be a phase it appears: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Why have there been more than 50 posts in the last 8 hours about a storm which the GFS says is rain and every other op seems to say is OTS? Good grief... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 18Z GFS is going to be a phase it appears: just going off hr 54, the northern stream seems slower, though it should phase it will take a little longer, thus i think this will be further south than 12z....*guns aimed at head* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Why have there been more than 50 posts in the last 8 hours about a storm which the GFS says is rain and every other op seems to say is OTS? Good grief... tell that to nyc which prob has quadruple the posts...to be fair the ukie showed a storm to not sure if its rain or snow though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Of course the GFS took it to the woodshed in the December 26th 2010 snowstorm. Also the February 2006 storm the Euro was late to the party. Unfortunately they are the only two i can think of right now where the Euro was wrong less then 3 days out. You are totally rewriting history here. The EC was onto this for a long time in the medium range while the GFS was way off. Then there was a day (12Z on the 23rd) where the EC backed off and almost instantly the GFS jumped on board. By 0Z on the 25th everyone was on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Why have there been more than 50 posts in the last 8 hours about a storm which the GFS says is rain and every other op seems to say is OTS? Good grief... Debby downer. Heckuva way to run a storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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