2/19 Weekend Threat

[mappy]

^{Where the heck did all our met's, pro's and expert's go?}

^{Its the biggest storm of the season}

^{I had to venture to the NYC forum .}

^{Let's hope the 12z euro pull's something out of its hat.}

Just don't go to the MA forum, you won't find what you are looking for there

[Quakertown needs snow]

I mean, what is there to say? I don't have much more insight to add than anyone else. As much spread as there was in the Euro ensemble this morning, I have zero confidence in any of these runs.

what spread

at least we have a couple lake cutters to follow after this "threat"

[Boch23]

If we knew what was actually going to happen 4+ days out where would the fun in that be?!?!? On a personal note I just don't get that feeling that I had the last two years when you knew no matter what changes in the models there were, there would be a storm. So I'll just expect what we have gotten the whole winter. Slushy inches or rain.

[Feb]

I mean, what is there to say? I don't have much more insight to add than anyone else. As much spread as there was in the Euro ensemble this morning, I have zero confidence in any of these runs.

If i had to issue a forecast right now i would go with " Partly Sunny with a chance of snow, possibly accumulating 1-20" with a possibility of changing over to rain, 1-2 " with flooding. Also after about 5:30 in the evening, 100% chance of it getting dark. High temps of 32-54, low temps of 28-48.

[Ralph Wiggum]

I'm just not sure we (anyone?) have much cold air to work with for this one. There is nary a high pressure on the charts. Sure, a quasi 50-50 low is there, but it's not exactly pumping in the cold air or holding in confluence for a great track. Unless the Euro jumps on board, I think I'm on the outside looking in for this 'threat'. BL is just way too warm.

[Ralph Wiggum]

From the MA thread, Euro has a 996 low bombing at Hatteras then headed due East. Dont shoot the messenger.

[NaoPos]

Euro doesn't get precip past DC

[Ralph Wiggum]

^{Euro is a jog West and North away from a crushing blow for many.}

[am19psu]

12z Euro is basically the same solution as 0z and yesterday's 12z run.

[Feb]

12z Euro is basically the same solution as 0z and yesterday's 12z run.

Consistency usually wins in the end.

[am19psu]

Consistency usually wins in the end.

Yeah, but the 14/00z run was a major hit. I still favor the offshore solution, but confidence remains extremely low - especially for a 4 day forecast.

[Feb]

Yeah, but the 14/00z run was a major hit. I still favor the offshore solution, but confidence remains extremely low - especially for a 4 day forecast.

If you can, please let us know what the 12Z Euro ensembles show later today.

[am19psu]

If you can, please let us know what the 12Z Euro ensembles show later today.

Yup, I was planning on it. At least the winter recon data has helped solutions converge

[Feb]

The GGEM has a big snowstorm 7 days out. The Euro has a big snowstorm 10 days out. I'm not biting until it's 7-10 hours out.

Yup, I was planning on it. At least the winter recon data has helped solutions converge

I posted my above quote 5 days ago. I haven't changed my mind.

[Ralph Wiggum]

There's always a chance the Euro is being consistently incorrect and struggling with the confluence/track. We'll see.

[Lady Di]

I seem to recall the Euro being a Dr No at this range before, albeit a different winter pattern.

[Ellinwood]

I seem to recall the Euro being a Dr No at this range before, albeit a different winter pattern.

It's kind of on the near edge of that range right now. Granted, this season it's been more correct than not with the "no" answer regardless of the range. Still in "wait and see" mode until we start getting into almost-the-near-term range tomorrow.

Also, what up Philly region?

[stormspotterlive]

I would be shocked if the 18z GFS is the same it has been 00z and 12z VS 18z and 6z now. Cat and mouse game will continue.00z run tonight should be more interesting (back to 12z) But ots is on the table too. Pick a forecast out of a hat and hope it is right at this point.

[GD0815]

There's always a chance the Euro is being consistently incorrect and struggling with the confluence/track. We'll see.

I seem to recall the Euro being a Dr No at this range before, albeit a different winter pattern.

i've learned not to count on the euro being wrong at this range when it shows the same thing a few times...

[Ellinwood]

i've learned not to count on the euro being wrong at this range when it shows the same thing a few times...

That's generally the way to go, but given the complexity and speed of the pattern you basically need to throw all of the preconceived notions of the models out the window until we hit the Day 3 range. This one's a true wildcard.

[GD0815]

That's generally the way to go, but given the complexity and speed of the pattern you basically need to throw all of the preconceived notions of the models out the window until we hit the Day 3 range. This one's a true wildcard.

fair enough, but gun to your head, gfs or euro solution, you are going with the euro i bet.

[Feb]

It's kind of on the near edge of that range right now. Granted, this season it's been more correct than not with the "no" answer regardless of the range. Still in "wait and see" mode until we start getting into almost-the-near-term range tomorrow.

Also, what up Philly region?

That's what i thought. I think i have heard others mention that the Euro's dead zone is 72-96 hours. We are getting close to that. Probably by tomorrows 12z Euro run we might have an idea.

By the way, welcome to our forum. Please keep posting.

[Ellinwood]

fair enough, but gun to your head, gfs or euro solution, you are going with the euro i bet.

The default is always the Euro Actually, I would favor the Euro with a slightly further north track due to slightly better phasing with the northern stream. It would still be a miss or near miss for the Philly region, but at least it would be closer! That's not based on a true analysis of the models so much as just a hunch at this point.

That's what i thought. I think i have heard others mention that the Euro's dead zone is 72-96 hours. We are getting close to that. Probably by tomorrows 12z Euro run we might have an idea.

By the way, welcome to our forum. Please keep posting.

Thanks for the welcome! I know I've gotten on your case before, but I still hold you in good regards and I'm grateful for your positive attitude. I agree that tomorrow's 12z Euro (if not the model consensus) will probably be the way to go as far as trying to get the correct idea with this system.

[Feb]

i've learned not to count on the euro being wrong at this range when it shows the same thing a few times...

Of course the GFS took it to the woodshed in the December 26th 2010 snowstorm. Also the February 2006 storm the Euro was late to the party. Unfortunately they are the only two i can think of right now where the Euro was wrong less then 3 days out.

[Plokoon111]

I swear everytime I go into that NYC storm thread, its a different emotion each time I check it out. I went there last night and everyone was happy. Then soon there dreadful, then upset. Then greedy, then optimistic.

[Feb]

http://snowball.millersville.edu/~cws/SpecialWeatherDiscussion.html

By the way i nice discussion from Eric Horst from Millersville University on the weekend storm/no storm threat.

[tcutter]

http://snowball.mill...Discussion.html

By the way i nice discussion from Eric Horst from Millersville University on the weekend storm/no storm threat.

thats a very well worded discussion......imo

[Porsche]

12z euro ensembles def better than 00z ensemble mean. North, amped, and better digging.

Good news I say at this point

[am19psu]

The 12z mean is going to be way better than 0z

[am19psu]

Ok, so about 5-8 members are solid hits for the East Coast. So, the ensemble mean is spitting out 2-4 for PHL, but I think it is a boom and bust mean. The median is probably 0.