rossi Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 18z GFS is going to end up much further N than 12z edit: a glancing blow What does that mean snow wise? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 What does that mean snow wise? Rossi A repeat of Saturday morning in most areas, at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 It looks like central NJ, Trenton, eastern part of Bucks, and up could get hit with the most of what the system has to offer. Good in my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 the GFS took 1 step forward in getting us something decent... better than a deamplified scenario. Maybe it's just the typical 18z GFS weenie solution. vs 12z The main reason behind the more amplified solution is the s/w out in Nevada. @ 12z z, you can see it less defined and weaker, causing the middle conus ridge to not amlify as much as the 18z. If you look at that vort in Nevada on 18z, it's a bit sharper, amp'd, and digging a bit more south, allowing the ridge to help the southern wave amplify and downstream heights falls help push this north a bit, SOmething to watch, but i'm not sold yet. There's a ton of Pac s/w meandering around. better to be 114 hours out compared to 180 though i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 FWIW...the GFS at 18z yesterday (or Sunday) was a close call as well but about 75-100 miles farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 FWIW...the GFS at 18z yesterday (or Sunday) was a close call as well but about 75-100 miles farther south. I have seen it move more in one day last year -- Boxing Day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I agree 100% but there was that one dude who always referred to him as a "certain well-respected met." Wasn't that actually Rob posting on Eastern under a pseudonym and calling himself that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 This was just too good not to post @BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi keep trying to show DGEX snow totals for weekend as it brings storm up but it wont tweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctm1965 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Wasn't that actually Rob posting on Eastern under a pseudonym and calling himself that? Oh my, I sure hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 This was just too good not to post @BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi keep trying to show DGEX snow totals for weekend as it brings storm up but it wont tweet Yea when i got that tweet i almost fell off my chair laughing . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 0Z GFS has a beautiful track. Only problem is BL is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Looks like we could get nice deform snow.. before that it looks iffy. I'm just happy it finally showed a big storm to our rea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 It's a good hit for areas north and west of the immediate burbs. If it bombs out 6 hours earlier, we all get pounded by the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I like this run. It is a very strong signal for a large storm. I bet the Euro is less amped. Still plenty of time to work out the details, but a setp in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yeah BL is very warm, which is really bad for the GFS. Maybe 5:1 ratio snow along I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yeah BL is very warm, which is really bad for the GFS. Maybe 5:1 ratio snow along I-95. Yeah, if the storm occurred as the GFS has it modeled, it would be a huge waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Ugh I'm on no sleep but now I gotta stay up for the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 VA/NC weenies including DT are going nuts saying GFS solution wont happen. 0z CMC is a miss for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yeah BL is very warm, which is really bad for the GFS. Maybe 5:1 ratio snow along I-95. Key word ray... Snow ;-) On a more serious note, synoptically ,GFS is all over the place. Compared to this morning's 6z GFS, I'll take this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 EC is a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 GFS and euro switch spots 24hrs...lolz. GFS and dgex vs ukie, ggem, euro, ensembles. Seeing as ,that the GFS run was extremely amped , I'd call it an outlier at this point and lean towards the souther slider scenario. ( my gut says f it and go big for the weenie solution). I like the PAC energy dropping south and a ping enough to help pump heights along that ridge which allows the northern branch to drop in and amp some. Those PAC s/w have wanted to drop more south than SE and want to close off/amplify more often than not this winter. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yeah, if the storm occurred as the GFS has it modeled, it would be a huge waste. At least it would wash the 1000 lbs of salt off of the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 At least it would wash the 1000 lbs of salt off of the roads. Yeah but they'd put 2000 lbs of new salt down anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 FWIW, the BL with the GFS run is so torchy that it's rain to PTW for a chunk of this storm verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 6z gfs looks a lot like the 18z from yesterday (graze) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 6z gfs looks a lot like the 18z from yesterday (graze) Yeah, much closer to the ECMWF. The 06z GFS does not have a potent closed low dropping southeastward across the Great Lakes like the 00z run had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Euro ensemble is all over the place at H5 by hour 90. Still not a lot of confidence in any solution right now. I'm still favoring the OTS at HSE solution based on the longwave pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Wow, just "digested" all the 00z and 06z models. Clueless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 At least it would wash the 1000 lbs of salt off of the roads. What the heck is up with that? Are they forced to dump large amounts due to surplus? The roads are a mess, as are cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Wow, just "digested" all the 00z and 06z models. Clueless. Looking at the model spread at hr 90 - HR 90! - on the Euro ensemble, the 552dam envelope at H5 is between Aberdeen and Dallas. At 114, it could be between Thunder Bay and Savannah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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