Sunny and Warm Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Agreed. Looking at current radar, all the moisture to the south still hasn't shown any signs of heading north. well to be fair, that moisture heading east will continue to do so and exit stage right. That heavy batch hitting me now will barely graze NC. A second low will then move ENE and be the primary for tomorrow. Confluence will likely kill the north movement of that precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 well to be fair, that moisture heading east will continue to do so and exit stage right. That heavy batch hitting me now will barely graze NC. A second low will then move ENE and be the primary for tomorrow. Confluence will likely kill the north movement of that precip. Its essentially the stuff back in Ar-Kansas and Texas that you need to watch. Not that its going to do anything unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 New NAM is a bit less amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 And due east, amazing how it moves due east once it forms a bit south and east of Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 This run totally screws DC. That's probably the most painful place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 This run totally screws DC. That's probably the most painful place to be. In general it is but especially now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 This run totally screws DC. That's probably the most painful place to be. I think we all saw it coming over the last day. That's why I thought JB was too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 This run totally screws DC. That's probably the most painful place to be. hard to take the NAM too seriously given how it looked at 18z vs now, i wouldnt give up in DC based on just this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 hard to take the NAM too seriously given how it looked at 18z vs now, i wouldnt give up in DC based on just this run If the NAM was off on its own I'd agree. However, the last GFS only gave DCA 0.03". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 hard to take the NAM too seriously given how it looked at 18z vs now, i wouldnt give up in DC based on just this run If you read the MA model thread Baroclinic explains the problems with the NAM. At this point though any thing more than an inch max 2" is a pipe dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 00 GFS continues to trend S. Not far from 00z NAM. Glad this one folded here early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 JB blog title this AM - "Sympathy for the Devil" "I guess thats just about the way I felt, like the devil, when my son came into my office last night and said Dad, you are really getting slammed on the blogs, do you really think its going to get cold? After all the Fab Feb I had is a Feb Fib so far, and the set up to the 84-85 strat warm has not happened here in the states, though it certainly did in Europe. And of course your response, well we dont live in Europe. I dont expect sympathy for the devil, given the devil says things that dont happen so I realize where I stand in the winter weather loving community right now. Dont think its lost on me" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 JB blog title this AM - "Sympathy for the Devil" "I guess thats just about the way I felt, like the devil, when my son came into my office last night and said Dad, you are really getting slammed on the blogs, do you really think its going to get cold? After all the Fab Feb I had is a Feb Fib so far, and the set up to the 84-85 strat warm has not happened here in the states, though it certainly did in Europe. And of course your response, well we dont live in Europe. I dont expect sympathy for the devil, given the devil says things that dont happen so I realize where I stand in the winter weather loving community right now. Dont think its lost on me" When was the last time JB forecast a storm to go further south than modeled except when it would mean a hit on Philly and NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 To be fair, there were far worse forecasters than JB with this storm. JB was just the most stubborn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 To be fair, there were far worse forecasters than JB with this storm. JB was just the most stubborn... Who? Links to forecasts would be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Who? Links to forecasts would be appreciated. More on the analysis side than on the forecast side but there were a number of things from Rob that were pretty off the mark. also, Piers Corbyn from what I had read (didn't see the forecast itself) was supposedly calling for a biggie in his long range chatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 More on the analysis side than on the forecast side but there were a number of things from Rob that were pretty off the mark. also, Piers Corbyn from what I had read (didn't see the forecast itself) was supposedly calling for a biggie in his long range chatter. Ah yes those two... I wouldn't call the forecasts "worse" so much as "equally as bad," but I do see what you're talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Ah yes those two... I wouldn't call the forecasts "worse" so much as "equally as bad," but I do see what you're talking about. JB's forecast from Wednesday wasn't that terrible...a touch high but he was annoying stubborn...when he started showing the JMA it was straw grasp time. Had he shifted on Friday to what his final forecast was he probably wouldn't look so terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 JB's forecast from Wednesday wasn't that terrible...a touch high but he was annoying stubborn...when he started showing the JMA it was straw grasp time. Had he shifted on Friday to what his final forecast was he probably wouldn't look so terrible. Even his updated forecast was way off the mark, and that seemed pretty clear as soon as he issued it (to me, anyway). Before his update he was even trying to use the medium range 18z DGEX to support his argument, which should be a punishable crime. I guess I just see it differently than you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Adam, Great call on being more concerned about suppression than boundary layer issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 20, 2012 Author Share Posted February 20, 2012 Adam, Great call on being more concerned about suppression than boundary layer issues. Thanks, Tony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Thanks, Tony. If you are scoring, the .01 isohyet was slightly south of the JMA's Albany, NY forecast position with this event, somewhere in Sussex County Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 20, 2012 Author Share Posted February 20, 2012 If you are scoring, the .01 isohyet was slightly south of the JMA's Albany, NY forecast position with this event, somewhere in Sussex County Delaware. Hard to believe the JMA folded to the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.