bates Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 6Z GFS still south. Didn't notice much northward jog if any. Not sure which areas are in the running for heavy snow, apart from elevation areas in western Virginia and vicinity. Soundings off 06z gfs have above freezing surface temps during most of the precip at Richmond and DC (DC with much less qpf). Not sure which cities really get in on this as a big snow event. Obviously, a big change from 24 hours ago when DC, Baltimore, Philly (to a lesser extent), etc. were under the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Not sure which areas are in the running for heavy snow, apart from elevation areas in western Virginia and vicinity. Soundings off 06z gfs have above freezing surface temps during most of the precip at Richmond and DC (DC with much less qpf). Not sure which cities really get in on this as a big snow event. Obviously, a big change from 24 hours ago when DC, Baltimore, Philly (to a lesser extent), etc. were under the gun. That has been my thinking as well. Spring time feel in the air across most of the USA. I just don't see much snow out of this except the areas you mentioned. And the areas that do get snow it might be kind of fun to see which happens faster, the accumulation on Sunday, or the melting on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 6Z GFS still south. Didn't notice much northward jog if any. Time to give up Ray ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 not allowed.....that would take away 3/4 of my posts so far this winter!! Seriously what a tough winter for JB and most of the long range forecasters for this winter.. What has really hurt him more than other LR forecasters is being stubborn. Folks like Hurricane revamped and retooled based on changes while he did not!! W all know JB is certainly smart and is quite capable of coming back with a stellar year next winter or hurricane season. Despite a tough forecasting winter I really have enjoyed his new venture Weatherbell and look forward to continuing my sub. Fixed.. Can we make it a sub forum rule to never mention Jb ever again?! What a disaster the models were on this up untill 24 hrs ago.. Euro had it's issues from the medium range too.. not one perfmored to well outside 72hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 That has been my thinking as well. Spring time feel in the air across most of the USA. I just don't see much snow out of this except the areas you mentioned. And the areas that do get snow it might be kind of fun to see which happens faster, the accumulation on Sunday, or the melting on Monday. Funny and very true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 well the NAM might get some of us a lil bit of snow tomorrow at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 New 12Z NAM brings measurable precip back into the area fwiw. Probably just a last minute hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 nothing in philly except MAYBE a flurry...with the dry air at 850-700 it'll be virga in the top fringe of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 6Z 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 nothing in philly except MAYBE a flurry...with the dry air at 850-700 it'll be virga in the top fringe of this storm. Agreed. A slight Northward jog, with no real impact. I presume it's too late in the game for any kind of meaningful jog north... Speaking of jogs, I'm going for one. It's springtime out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 6Z 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 What a close call: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 why are you guys still in storm mode? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 These storms always shift North at the last minute. This should be no exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Latest from a well respected met (JB) - He is not yet throwing in the towel and explains his reasoning below.... "The model feeds back, hands energy out in front, and pulls the northern branch back in IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE, This drive it east. One of the laws of physics states a body at rest stays tends to stay at rest, a body in motion tries to stay in motion. The point is until I see these things happening, I will stay with the idea of more of the original system holding on . We know the energy transfer will take place, but 3-5 hours later and a bit deeper with the original system is a very tiny change in the entire scheme of things, but makes a difference with the outcome to alot of people. Still I would much rather see the models in my camp at this time, than me on the outside looking in, and the pending outcome of people who last week had no idea this was coming yapping about how its another bust. The nature of the game I guess. Problem with me is I dont quit until I know there is no chance. Too many times the weather, or many things, are there if one holds on. Someone making 5-10 forecasts then cooing about the one he was right on, well its not for me. Rather stick with one idea until I KNOW its wrong, which could be the case later today for me, though it may have been much quicker for you." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Latest from a well respected met (JB) - He is not yet throwing in the towel and explains his reasoning below.... "The model feeds back, hands energy out in front, and pulls the northern branch back in IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE, This drive it east. One of the laws of physics states a body at rest stays tends to stay at rest, a body in motion tries to stay in motion. The point is until I see these things happening, I will stay with the idea of more of the original system holding on . We know the energy transfer will take place, but 3-5 hours later and a bit deeper with the original system is a very tiny change in the entire scheme of things, but makes a difference with the outcome to alot of people. Still I would much rather see the models in my camp at this time, than me on the outside looking in, and the pending outcome of people who last week had no idea this was coming yapping about how its another bust. The nature of the game I guess. Problem with me is I dont quit until I know there is no chance. Too many times the weather, or many things, are there if one holds on. Someone making 5-10 forecasts then cooing about the one he was right on, well its not for me. Rather stick with one idea until I KNOW its wrong, which could be the case later today for me, though it may have been much quicker for you." see, here is a perfect example of what ails JB. He seems to think that only he has a grasp of the laws of physics. Did it ever occur to him that the modelers imparted the laws of physics to their models? Then we have the fact that many modelers with many models, all with the laws of physics built into them, are all converging on a miss for the area. But JB knows better!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Latest from a well respected met (JB) - He is not yet throwing in the towel and explains his reasoning below.... "The model feeds back, hands energy out in front, and pulls the northern branch back in IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE, This drive it east. One of the laws of physics states a body at rest stays tends to stay at rest, a body in motion tries to stay in motion. The point is until I see these things happening, I will stay with the idea of more of the original system holding on . We know the energy transfer will take place, but 3-5 hours later and a bit deeper with the original system is a very tiny change in the entire scheme of things, but makes a difference with the outcome to alot of people. Still I would much rather see the models in my camp at this time, than me on the outside looking in, and the pending outcome of people who last week had no idea this was coming yapping about how its another bust. The nature of the game I guess. Problem with me is I dont quit until I know there is no chance. Too many times the weather, or many things, are there if one holds on. Someone making 5-10 forecasts then cooing about the one he was right on, well its not for me. Rather stick with one idea until I KNOW its wrong, which could be the case later today for me, though it may have been much quicker for you." THE PATTERN11111!!!!!!1111!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 GFS doesn't budge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coyoteweather Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The JB model sticking it out to the end.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 GFS is about as far south as ever. JB problem is he lets what he wants to happen interfere and he won't let go of outdated solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coyoteweather Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 No, I think JB's problem is that he's just stubborn. But you'd be stubborn too if you were that well known All he's doing is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Agreed. A slight Northward jog, with no real impact. I presume it's too late in the game for any kind of meaningful jog north... Speaking of jogs, I'm going for one. It's springtime out there! I would hardly call today spring, when it's well into the 60's then we could say it's spring..........this just a mild winter day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The 18z NAM started out South and weaker for a time, however it ended up not being decent for areas South of the city thanks to a stronger low off shore and a better phase of the energy with the ULL in the midwest and the Southern shortwave. The result was the Northern edge dropped a tad, especially as you go West of the city but holding about the same East of the city, however more precip made it to Southern parts of the area, with .5 making it up to just South of Dover for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Just for S's & G's, where does the .25 line reach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foggy Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 JB gives in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 JB gives in snowblower on yellow alert... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 JB gives in I still think he's too far north. A tad high on totals as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I still think he's too far north. A tad high on totals as well. Agreed. Looking at current radar, all the moisture to the south still hasn't shown any signs of heading north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 SREFs south barely brings .10 to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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