phlwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'm taking the under on Philly getting an inch. The evil look of confluence means south trend will continue, IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'm taking the under on Philly getting an inch. The evil look of confluence means south trend will continue, IMO... Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think we need to change the subtopic, its pretty clear that this storm is not "coming up the coast"...maybe change it to "will the storm tweak north?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think we need to change the subtopic, its pretty clear that this storm is not "coming up the coast"...maybe change it to "will the storm tweak north?" Better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Better? Much! Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Well one things for sure, the Euro smoked the GFS on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'd post my updated snowfall forecast, but when the forecast is for 0" region-wide it doesn't really matter Sorry, folks. Hopefully this does trend back north, but it's definitely looking to stay south at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'd post my updated snowfall forecast, but when the forecast is for 0" region-wide it doesn't really matter Sorry, folks. Hopefully this does trend back north, but it's definitely looking to stay south at this point. Any news on the 12z euro ensembles? I really think that this 12z run will be on the southern area of the ensemble mean. How can this not come north with such a marginal airmass? You know more than I do, it has something to do with the vortex over the NE hmm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allman15 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'd post my updated snowfall forecast, but when the forecast is for 0" region-wide it doesn't really matter Sorry, folks. Hopefully this does trend back north, but it's definitely looking to stay south at this point. ***********troll post warning has been issued********** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Any news on the 12z euro ensembles? I really think that this 12z run will be on the southern area of the ensemble mean. How can this not come north with such a marginal airmass? You know more than I do, it has something to do with the vortex over the NE hmm? Euro ensembles don't come out for about another hour or so EDIT: A little sooner than I thought... it has just started. The problem with bringing the storm back north is the upper-level energy just isn't that strong and is fairly strung out... unless some consolidation of the energy takes place (kind of like what the 12z NAM has), I can't really buy into this thing jogging north. ***********troll post warning has been issued********** Ha! I TRIED to give you guys some lovin! Maybe next time I can excite you some with the 4-8" SNOW PEEN contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 ***********troll post warning has been issued********** Your BIRD must be frustrated with the developments in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Well one things for sure, the Euro smoked the GFS on this one. The event has not even happened yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The event has not even happened yet. Appears to have smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Banter in the banter thread, guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Any news on the 12z euro ensembles? I really think that this 12z run will be on the southern area of the ensemble mean. How can this not come north with such a marginal airmass? You know more than I do, it has something to do with the vortex over the NE hmm? It really has nothing to do with the airmass and everything to do with massively confluent flow progged to be over us. You need a ton of latent heat release to overcome that, and with the southern stream trending weaker, it's no surprise that the model solutions have trended farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Banter in the banter thread, guys Sorry, just wanted to respond to that one comment given the event has not even occurred yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Interesting read. MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 154 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012 ...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM TEXAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... PREFERENCE: DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS BEST REPRESENTED BY THE GFS THE NEW ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH ITS LATEST PMSL DEPICTIONS WHICH PLACES ITS SOLUTION WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN CAMP OF LOW TRACK SOLUTIONS THAT INCLUDES THE CANADIAN...WHILE THE NAM LIES WITHIN THE FAST CAMP...AND THE GFS/UKMET NEAR THE MIDDLE...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES SPANNING ABOUT 6 HOURS AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES ABOUT 75-100 NM. IF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE INCLUDED...DIFFERENCES INCREASE BY 2 TO 3 TIMES AS LARGE. AS A WHOLE HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS CLUSTER NEATLY AROUND THE GFS/UKMET...INCLUDING THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS DEPICTING THE LOW'S TRACK HAS INCREASED. HOWEVER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...INCLUDING THE INITIALIZATION/BEHAVIOR/EVOLUTION OF SEVERAL SMALL-SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HAVE A DIRECT BEARING ON THE PRECISE TRACK/DEPTH OF THE LOW. ADDITIONALLY...MUCH IS UNCLEAR ABOUT THE ANTICIPATED QPF AND INFLUENCE FROM CONVECTIVE PROCESSES AND ACCOMPANYING NORTHWARD MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN SUMMARY...THE ACCOMPANYING SPLIT-FLOW REGIME APPEARS TO HAVE LIMITED PREDICTABILITY ...AND AS SUCH...A DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS THAT MAXIMIZES THE USE OF HIGHER SPATIAL RESOLUTION WHILE PROVIDING MULTIPLE DYNAMICAL CORES/MODEL PHYSICS PACKAGES TO INCREASE THE DISPERSION...SEEMS MOST PRUDENT. THIS APPROACH IS BEST APPROXIMATED BY THE 12Z GFS...AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS...ALBEIT WITH LESS DEFINITION. REFER TO THE QPFPFD AND QPFHSD FOR MORE INFORMATION ON QPF AND WINTER WEATHER PREFERENCES. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON TRACK...BUT BELOW AVERAGE ON TIMING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Euro ENS carbon copy of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawstudent1 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Why is the NAM on the northern end of the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Why is the NAM on the northern end of the models? Too much convection/latent heat release over the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawstudent1 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Too much convection/latent heat release over the gulf It would seem that New Castle county in DE should have a wide range from North to South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Euro ENS carbon copy of the op How about the JMA ensembles? Anyhoo the gfs ensembles remain pretty tightly clustered and in line with the op also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Unreal amount of moisture down there to not get any up to us. What a tease... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 NAM is teasing us...looks better than 12z through 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yup. NAM continues to throw some okay preceip into our area here in SEPA. If it's been one thing, despite being an outlier, it has been consistent in that regard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawstudent1 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 NAM is teasing us...looks better than 12z through 48 It does show a decent band of qpf just south of PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Actually the .5 precip level has ticked SE from 12z as far as I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 18Z NAM is about the same as the 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coyoteweather Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 18z a little slower at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coyoteweather Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 high off nc coast is much further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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