mattinpa Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Could def. go north a little more and give us moderate snow, but I'd REALLY like to see the Euro have a much better run today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 I like where we sit essentially on the Mason Dixon line as I feel like this will creep a bit north as we get closer ala the storms in '10. A lot of people allude to the fact that there always seems to be nice deform banding on the far NW side of these types of storms and we'd be sitting right there. Would love to see the GFS and Euro move up though at 12z. It's not impossible, but you would need a 150 mi jump in the 700mb low from the 12z NAM to get the deformation banding up to PHL/ILG and the 12z NAM is by far the farthest north model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 also people have to remember this is falling during the day. You need some good rates to stick on grass and esp roads. We are coming off back to back 50 degree days. Even if we muster .25-.5 of qpf im not sure the rates would be hvy enough to even accum much This might be that tyep of storm where 2-4 falls in philly and delco but only 1-2 that sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Brand new hot of the press RGEM just went to the 12z nam! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think the best accumulating snows come toward the end of the day and night. We're getting into that time of year where snow at night is the best. Its still gonna be nice to see several hours of heavy snow coming down. Considering how this winter has been. At least we got a big storm to watch.. This might be that tyep of storm where 2-4 falls in philly and delco but only 1-2 that sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Trend has been for better influx of low-level dry air from N which cools when precip evaporates. BL issues are not as bad as a couple of days ago. Flip side is that precip can only come so far N.. Agree, at this point I am decreasingly concerned with the BL issues. The succession of colder solutions is clearly in response to the evolution of the SHP position, going from 1020 in Iowa to 1024 in Michigan the past day's worth of runs for 48 hours out from now. H5 confluence brings surface ridging well into NY/PA ahead of the low for a nice little bananna high. Now how that ends up eating into the precip shield will be well documented but other than perhaps some sprinkles at the beginning I think this is all snow all the way down to the coast in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I am growing pretty confident there will indeed be accumulation (but not on roads) Sunday. It is very rare to have an important snow event up to BWI and totally miss the Philly area. That said those that live and die with the models will have just a few more ups and downs but somewhere in the 1 to 4" range across the city and burbs growing more likely. If the higher end of the range is reached NW Chester County may actually be above normal snow for the season to date....who would have thunk it in this pattern - nothing like a freak October storm to save the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 I am growing pretty confident there will indeed be accumulation (but not on roads) Sunday. It is very rare to have an important snow event up to BWI and totally miss the Philly area. That said those that live and die with the models will have just a few more ups and downs but somewhere in the 1 to 4" range across the city and burbs growing more likely. If the higher end of the range is reached NW Chester County may actually be above normal snow for the season to date....who would have thunk it in this pattern - nothing like a freak October storm to save the day I'm still up in the air whether anything more than .05 makes it up to PHL. There is going to be a very sharp cutoff on the northern edge of this system due to the confluence from the vortex to the north. PHL certainly COULD cash in with a 2-3 type event, but I wouldn't want to make that forecast right now. Given all of the model guidance, I would lean toward lighter amounts at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 and the nam continues to be by itself...gfs isnt biting on whatever the nam was chewing on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 and the nam continues to be by itself...gfs isnt biting on whatever the nam was chewing on RGEM and the nam are the same through 48 Tom. will see if the other models even take a bite though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 RGEM and the nam are the same through 48 Tom. will see if the other models even take a bite though. The NAM is useless at this time range due its convective parameterizations and the character of this system. I'd start giving it more credence at tomorrow's 12z runs. The RGEM is a crappy version of the NAM. I don't know anyone that uses it seriously as a forecasting tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 12z doesn't have the .25" precip making it past Balt through 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Banter should go in the banter thread, guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 RGEM and the nam are the same through 48 Tom. will see if the other models even take a bite though. Not really, if anything the RGEM is more in line with the GFS. When looking at the 48 hour maps The ridging to the west of the system is more in line with the GFS, the strength of the ULL on the back side (over Missouri at 48 hours) is a good bit deeper on the NAM then the RGEM, while the GFS is slightly weaker then the RGEM but overall a far better match. The enhanced band of precip in the warm sector is much farther North on the NAM compared to the RGEM but is in a similar location compared to the GFS. The surface low location and intensity also matches the GFS more then the NAM. Finally the precip shield is a far better match with the GFS, as many areas where the NAM already has significant precip, especially on the North and Northeast side, the GFS and RGEM have far lighter precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GFS similar to other globals at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GGEM is slightly North of the GFS and North of it's 00z run last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 1/30/10 was mentioned on the NYC board and I think it's an excellent analog for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coyoteweather Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I am not giving up on this storm yet, it could still trend to the northwest as they usually do in the short range. Teleconnections don't favor it thought. By the way, I've posted a short discussion on this storm on my blog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 best case scenario on any model at this point is getting fringed, and that is basically for PHL south. If I were betting now, I'd take the under on any measurable snow for PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjwxman Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 12z Euro even farther south, also a tad slower. Northern edge of measurable qpf just off of Cape May Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Basically, about as bad of a run as you could've plausibly imagined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Basically, about as bad of a run as you could've plausibly imagined lol. Bring on spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Disgusting winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Basically, about as bad of a run as you could've plausibly imagined Removing the emotional aspect from it, is pretty amazing how tightly clustered the medium range modeling solution has been the last two to three sounding runs since those dropsonde missions were implemented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 You think the precip shield on the Euro should be larger? I think it should be larger... I still feel the track will be near the Virginia Capes. I still think significant snow could get into Philly, but obviously right now, thats a low risk. Definitely will have to monitor radar and satellite trends tonight and into tomorrow just to keep an eye on it. Definitely have to look over the 500mb maps tonight and tomorrow as well to see how things will be verifying.. But, not sure the Euro is capturing this storm in terms of the size of precip shield..Anyway, just some thoughts there.. But if you look at this run and had to make a forecast, probably be lucky to get some light snow at best. Probably lucky to get an inch. Removing the emotion aspect from it, is pretty amazing how tightly clustered the medium range modeling solution has been the last two to three sounding runs since those dropsonde missions were implemented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 You think the precip shield on the Euro should be larger? I think it should be larger... I still feel the track will be near the Virginia Capes. I still think significant snow could get into Philly, but obviously right now, thats a low risk. Definitely will have to monitor radar and satellite trends tonight and into tomorrow just to keep an eye on it. Definitely have to look over the 500mb maps tonight and tomorrow as well to see how things will be verifying.. But, not sure the Euro is capturing this storm in terms of the size of precip shield.. But if you look at this run and had to make a forecast, probably be lucky to get some light snow at best. Probably lucky to get an inch. John, I'm at home, so I'm just looking at the Euro off the wundermaps. I can't run my favorite model diags. The NAM soundings had alot of dry air with the Great Lakes high, so I can see the sharp cut off that most of the models have (except for the nam strangely enough). Precip can only get so north with the blocking 50/60 low in the way, the precip has had that squeeze a tube of toothpaste look to it for a couple of days now. It was nice seeing you and meeting Adam for the first time the other night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Removing the emotional aspect from it, is pretty amazing how tightly clustered the medium range modeling solution has been the last two to three sounding runs since those dropsonde missions were implemented. agreed, i feel the models have converged pretty well in the last 36 hours, at the right time for them to be converging. Someone will say after the fact that the models have been all of the place, but I really dont think that is the case with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Well, it was a pleasure listening to you and Walt the other night. I mean two hall of famers of the NWS. Without you and the many other pros out there, I don't where I be and let alone, might have lost all of forecasting skill set weather forecasting over the years. So, no doubt, folks you and many other out there have kept me sharp. Great points below. John, I'm at home, so I'm just looking at the Euro off the wundermaps. I can't run my favorite model diags. The NAM soundings had alot of dry air with the Great Lakes high, so I can see the sharp cut off that most of the models have (except for the nam strangely enough). Precip can only get so north with the blocking 50/60 low in the way, the precip has had that squeeze a tube of toothpaste look to it for a couple of days now. It was nice seeing you and meeting Adam for the first time the other night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It was rather interesting putting together the POP, QPF and snow grids early this morning given the challenges with this upcoming system. I adjusted my POP grids and ran the snowfall tools several times and I was still not all that confident with the forecast especially the farther north one goes. Early this morning was my last night shift so good luck to the next set of forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 With the GFS, UKMET and EC continuing to trend south, confidence in any precip up to TTN looks very low. The NAM keeps wobbling and the GEM did come a smidge north. With the BL issues you probably need more than a tenth of an inch there to get an inch of snow, so the likelihood of an inch is very very low right now. Even a coating is iffy though any north nudge may bring up the odds. Still thinking less than an inch for TTN, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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