Feb Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 There is a weak cold front progged to move through right before the system comes up from the south. That, combined with its own circulation and dynamics, are what is supposed to bring the cold. In this situation it will probably be rain on the front edge. I might have a better chance of winning the Powerball Saturday Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 smart forecast....if you forecast with just model input. This may not come further north but for sure we have not seen the last solution from a model. Many options are still on the table. I think this is a smart forecast Ray, at some point it is becoming obvious that no model is bringing any real QPF to PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The latest from JB "the well respected met" His map still has the Philly as the northern extent of 6" with 3 to 6" N and W... "I feel the models are jumping the storm too quick to the coast. Indeed a look at the last 3 runs of the GFS shows now what is its usual trend north ( the 06z now has it near Hatteras as the jump point). I feel this will not be able to see till tomorrow ( along with the other models) the correct handoff, but the main story here is its DC, not NYC and Boston like last year, that is in for a big snow) In addition the model may be trying to jump the storm out onto a coastal front, when the low will try to move along the front that is coming across from the west and north tomorrow and causing snows in the lakes and north of I-80 The confluence zone even on the GFS moves up to near I-90 so the reason for the halt north in precip is the jumping to the new low and I feel that will be north, not south of Hatteras. The way we will judge that is simple, see if the wind goes into the south at Hatteras. The 6 inch area has been expanded west and widened a bit, the 3 inch area contracted in the northeast" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The latest from JB "the well respected met" His map still has the Philly as the northern extent of 6" with 3 to 6" N and W... "I feel the models are jumping the storm too quick to the coast. Indeed a look at the last 3 runs of the GFS shows now what is its usual trend north ( the 06z now has it near Hatteras as the jump point). I feel this will not be able to see till tomorrow ( along with the other models) the correct handoff, but the main story here is its DC, not NYC and Boston like last year, that is in for a big snow) In addition the model may be trying to jump the storm out onto a coastal front, when the low will try to move along the front that is coming across from the west and north tomorrow and causing snows in the lakes and north of I-80 The confluence zone even on the GFS moves up to near I-90 so the reason for the halt north in precip is the jumping to the new low and I feel that will be north, not south of Hatteras. The way we will judge that is simple, see if the wind goes into the south at Hatteras. The 6 inch area has been expanded west and widened a bit, the 3 inch area contracted in the northeast" When you're in a hole already with just yourself and the JMA, you may as well go ahead and dig the hole deeper. Felt like spring out there this morning, let it just be so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 http://www.meteo.psu...6z/wrfloop.html Rather goofy track of the low on the 6z NAM. Up until hour 54 the low is moving NE out of the gulf and you would think it would be cutting inland a bit. Then between hour 54 and 60 makes a sharp right before heading NE again. Any construction taking place on any interstates in Northern Alabama and Georgia that the NAM had to detour around? Actually, yes... http://www.constructionequipmentguide.com/ALDOT-Crews-Works-on-%E2%80%98Unique%E2%80%99-I-59-Project/16256/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Not sure what it means, maybe ray It Adam can help Out here On 12z NAM@36 hrs, there's a shortwave over ND/MN.... 0z last nite @48hrs (same projected time Frame ), this shortwave is not present... Any thoughts? Importance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Not sure what it means, maybe ray It Adam can help Out here On 12z NAM@36 hrs, there's a shortwave over ND/MN.... 0z last nite @48hrs (same projected time Frame ), this shortwave is not present... Any thoughts? Importance? It's clearly trying to dive into the trof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 There is a weak cold front progged to move through right before the system comes up from the south. That, combined with its own circulation and dynamics, are what is supposed to bring the cold. In this situation it will probably be rain on the front edge. talk about threading the needle. Outside of the heaviest QPF area, this one is sure to disappoint IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 talk about threading the needle. Outside of the heaviest QPF area, this one is sure to disappoint IMO Yep, BL to the south, sharp gradient to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 NAM just took a slight jog to the North fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 at hr 60, some decent qpf makes it to the city, snj, and extreme se pa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Additional NS energy bringing NAM a little N as it moves offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Nothing noticeably different... .25 might make it to Philly. Runs the mason Dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Additional NS energy bringing NAM a little N as it moves offshore Very close to pinching off an upper H5 low after hr 60 near the MA. Interesting....some blocking in place now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Would have been a tad better if the northern stream didn't dig as much as 0z on this run. It lowers heights along the coast, and dampens out the southern wave a bit compared to 0z. There is a rogue wave behind all this dropping in, but it's cancelled out due to the primary northern wave doing the aforementioned damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 There seems to be a big disconnect between the mets in this thread and those down in the MA thread with regard to BL issues on this storm. Reading the MA thread it seems the NAM is north a bit and colder...essentially all snow for DC.....whereas our warministas up here keep harping on rain. I understand precip rates may come into play because as of now they are in the heavier stuff but I still don't quite understand the difference. I don't think ILG or PHL are out of the game by any stretch here for a nice 2-4" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Southern stream seemed a bit weaker, but I think the strong west flow relaxed a bit towards New England. That probably helped bring the shield a bit north. I wouldn't really have my feelinfs swayed until the GFS and Euro come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yep, BL to the south, sharp gradient to the north. When has there NOT been a gradient issue the past few years with these types of storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Southern stream seemed a bit weaker, but I think the strong west flow relaxed a bit towards New England. That probably helped bring the shield a bit north. I wouldn't really have my feelinfs swayed until the GFS and Euro come around. +1...till something else shows this precip this far north its all comical in my eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 also people have to remember this is falling during the day. You need some good rates to stick on grass and esp roads. We are coming off back to back 50 degree days. Even if we muster .25-.5 of qpf im not sure the rates would be hvy enough to even accum much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 There have been a few mets, and I think even Earthlight mentioned it a few times, that these events tend to keep ticking north last second. Few more ticks are we could be looking at a nice event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 There have been a few mets, and I think even Earthlight mentioned it a few times, that these events tend to keep ticking north last second. Few more ticks are we could be looking at a nice event here. only thing is john, the nam is the only one doing the ticking. it ticks on 0z and 12z runs, than tocks backwards on the off runs...while all the other models stay put. Need to see more than the nam creep north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 There seems to be a big disconnect between the mets in this thread and those down in the MA thread with regard to BL issues on this storm. Reading the MA thread it seems the NAM is north a bit and colder...essentially all snow for DC.....whereas our warministas up here keep harping on rain. I understand precip rates may come into play because as of now they are in the heavier stuff but I still don't quite understand the difference. I don't think ILG or PHL are out of the game by any stretch here for a nice 2-4" storm. Trend has been for better influx of low-level dry air from N which cools when precip evaporates. BL issues are not as bad as a couple of days ago. Flip side is that precip can only come so far N.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Well, this will be really close to whether say whether areas near Philly can get in on the heavy snow. I can see this shifting a bit north, but not past Trenton. Have to see what shifts if any we'll see for the next 24 hours. I know folks down in Virginia were really happy to see that run. So, we'll see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 There is still time for a little shift N but agree with Tom that NAM currently is an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 You know we'll all be glued to watching the radar returns and saying, hey, this is actuallly moving more north. Man, look at those returns.. Then you say, wait, yep, not surprised, its staying south.. Oh yeh, we'll be watching this one very closely... only thing is john, the nam is the only one doing the ticking. it ticks on 0z and 12z runs, than tocks backwards on the off runs...while all the other models stay put. Need to see more than the nam creep north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So we get like 2-3 1-3" events this winter and the one big one that comes clobbers the mid-atlantic. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So we get like 2-3 1-3" events this winter and the one big one that comes clobbers the mid-atlantic. Go figure. Well, they got screwed last year. Them's the breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So we get like 2-3 1-3" events this winter and the one big one that comes clobbers the mid-atlantic. Go figure. Similar to 88-89, nothing then 2 monster events for the MA in 1 week in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I like where we sit essentially on the Mason Dixon line as I feel like this will creep a bit north as we get closer ala the storms in '10. A lot of people allude to the fact that there always seems to be nice deform banding on the far NW side of these types of storms and we'd be sitting right there. Would love to see the GFS and Euro move up though at 12z. Trend has been for better influx of low-level dry air from N which cools when precip evaporates. BL issues are not as bad as a couple of days ago. Flip side is that precip can only come so far N.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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