chubbs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Ray what about for a 10:1 ratio pasting, are you booking a ticket yet to come to me?. You might have to drive to Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 You might have to drive to Richmond. Nah it will come north to hit me , i think you guys in Philly get decent snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Phase with the s/w is sloppier and energy at h5 is weaker causing the trof to dig less. This seems to be causing most of the differences between the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Ray what about for a 10:1 ratio pasting, are you booking a ticket yet to come to me?. Haha nah I think not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Haha nah I think not Oh well you will be sorry, i will send pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Oh well you will be sorry, i will send pics. Unless you are expecting 12"+, I don't think I'll be sorry In any case, I have to work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Unless you are expecting 12"+, I don't think I'll be sorry In any case, I have to work wait, you work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Unless you are expecting 12"+, I don't think I'll be sorry In any case, I have to work Not likely at all unless the NAM verifies . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 wait, you work? Work is the only four letter word he does not use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 wait, you work? Well, that's the official term. I guess what I really do is draw pretty pictures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 If the UKMET cam only 50 miles north we would be talking at or near a moderate even for Philly. also would need to be colder. clearly shows we got all of Friday and possibly even Saturday. we have seen storm after storm make small to moderate shifts north last minute over the years. I still like my 2-4 call for Philly for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Pretty much all the models are within 50 miles of each other with this better data at 0z. We may see the usual slight bumping north, but it looks like mainly a Balt/DC event rather than a Philly event. I do think Philly and immediate burbs will get decent accumulations for this considering how winter has gone, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Let's hug the JMA! Might as well post any models with respectable precip into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 FWIW, the EC shifted south a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 FWIW, the EC shifted south a bit. I guess your going to Richmond instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'd give QPF for the EC except that for most places there isn't any... no measurable north of DOV/MIV/ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Ugh, even the CRAS looks like the Euro. So much for that apps runner just 2 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 not that anyone is in here, but the SREFS came north some.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRF_6z/wrfloop.html Rather goofy track of the low on the 6z NAM. Up until hour 54 the low is moving NE out of the gulf and you would think it would be cutting inland a bit. Then between hour 54 and 60 makes a sharp right before heading NE again. Any construction taking place on any interstates in Northern Alabama and Georgia that the NAM had to detour around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 http://www.meteo.psu...6z/wrfloop.html Rather goofy track of the low on the 6z NAM. Up until hour 54 the low is moving NE out of the gulf and you would think it would be cutting inland a bit. Then between hour 54 and 60 makes a sharp right before heading NE again. Any construction taking place on any interstates in Northern Alabama and Georgia that the NAM had to detour around? Its avoiding the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I posted in the NYC thread that about 95% of the time the NAM follows a preceeding SREFs run. Easily 4% of those 5 where it does not are the 06Z runs, consistently they do the opposite of the 03Z SREFs with regards to any significant storm system you might be tracking. The NAM almost always goes S or E on its 06Z runs its just about a guarantee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I posted in the NYC thread that about 95% of the time the NAM follows a preceeding SREFs run. Easily 4% of those 5 where it does not are the 06Z runs, consistently they do the opposite of the 03Z SREFs with regards to any significant storm system you might be tracking. The NAM almost always goes S or E on its 06Z runs its just about a guarantee. NAM not really that different from 0z, maybe 25 miles south....that 25 miles could make a difference in this area, should this be the final solution (which it wont be) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 6Z GFS a bit slower but otherwise pretty much the same as 0Z and 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 6Z GFS a bit slower but otherwise pretty much the same as 0Z and 18Z. Addendum: QPF wise, its drier east of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 If gun were to head now, I'd go with coating-2" for Philly, coating to an inch north of Turnpike up to quakertown, 2-4" south of the C & D canal-Long Beach Island line. (personally, as of now I think Philly will be lucky to get more than an inch) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 (personally, as of now I think Philly will be lucky to get more than an inch) I'm not sure about Philly (might say coating to 2 inches for them, with 50:50 odds of an inch) but definitely I agree with that as far as TTN goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 JB pitching tent with JMA Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi JMA in my camp, right on the track I have Sunday evening forecast pic.twitter.com/lmqo6DFi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'm not sure about Philly (might say coating to 2 inches for them, with 50:50 odds of an inch) but definitely I agree with that as far as TTN goes. I think this is a smart forecast Ray, at some point it is becoming obvious that no model is bringing any real QPF to PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 All aboard the fail train. It left BOS a few days ago, just boarded in NYC and now heading to Philly. With temps near 40 this morning, highs predicted to be 50 this afternoon and tomorrow, i think the train will keep heading south from here. Where is the cold air that is supposed to bring all this snow south of here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 With temps near 40 this morning, highs predicted to be 50 this afternoon and tomorrow, i think the train will keep heading south from here. Where is the cold air that is supposed to bring all this snow south of here? There is a weak cold front progged to move through right before the system comes up from the south. That, combined with its own circulation and dynamics, are what is supposed to bring the cold. In this situation it will probably be rain on the front edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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