Riptide Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 850s in the -4 range...surface upper 30 to low 40s Not bad, it would be horrible to get an all-snow event at the expense of the northern part of our area. Rates will need to be quite high to overcome those torchy surface temps; things would probably turn out better for all parties if the low was more developed and further north. Right now, I'm not ready to give up just because the 12z euro came south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 So...It sounds like Berks/Lehigh/Poconos are out of the game on this one? i wouldnt say that till 0z fri nights runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Those with realistic expectations will not be disappointed. Those expecting a blizzard will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If I can get >3 then I think I'll be happy. I've lowered the expectations, Still seems like a lot of players involved and if everything looks the same tomorrow at this point then I'd say we are out of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Interesting to note the obvious trend of a stronger 50/50. There has been much said about how the lack of phase between the northern stream and southern stream energy doesn't "tug" our Miller A up the coast, but the northern vort also acts to invigorate the 50/50 low, further dampening the height field off the NE and northern mid-Atlantic coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12Z Euro laden with initialization errors per AFD out of NC from the MA thread. Take this run with a grain of salt and expect changes at 0Z. "...12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING SYSTEM FOR SAT-SUN WITH THE SLOWER NAM POORLY INITIALZED AND CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER. THE 12 ECMWF ALSO INITLIALZED POORLY SO IT WAS NOT USED." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Nice NW jump on the 15z SREF over the 09z SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12Z Euro laden with initialization errors per AFD out of NC from the MA thread. Take this run with a grain of salt and expect changes at 0Z. "...12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING SYSTEM FOR SAT-SUN WITH THE SLOWER NAM POORLY INITIALZED AND CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER. THE 12 ECMWF ALSO INITLIALZED POORLY SO IT WAS NOT USED." This was the British Colombian Short Wave. Using the Boxing Day timing of modeling corroboration as a guide, to get to the same point when those models came together we'd be talking about the 00z run on Saturday. So its too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Adam, anything on the euro ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It wasn't as flat exiting NC as the op was, but that really is a moot point with the overall depiction. Still a weird spread at 500mb, at hr 72. Seems like some of the models are a bit of a disagreement with how they handle the nrn stream. However, the mean didn't look all that bizarre to me. Looked sensible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 For what it is worth the nam is running late for info on it use this. saying the 24 hour products is 15-30 minutes late. http://www.nco.ncep....dex.html#TARGET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Adam, anything on the euro ens? Basically the same thing as 0z. Precip was a little farther south, as the theme has gone for this set of runs. There's still maybe 5-6 inland runners in there. In terms of QPF, .1-.25 went for the northern half of our area, .25-.5 for the southern half. I'm still sticking with my 1-3 call for PHL at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Basically the same thing as 0z. Precip was a little farther south, as the theme has gone for this set of runs. There's still maybe 5-6 inland runners in there. In terms of QPF, .1-.25 went for the northern half of our area, .25-.5 for the southern half. I'm still sticking with my 1-3 call for PHL at this time. A very good call IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12Z Euro laden with initialization errors per AFD out of NC from the MA thread. Take this run with a grain of salt and expect changes at 0Z. "...12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING SYSTEM FOR SAT-SUN WITH THE SLOWER NAM POORLY INITIALZED AND CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER. THE 12 ECMWF ALSO INITLIALZED POORLY SO IT WAS NOT USED." As Wes and DTK point out from the MA forum, there is a lot of subjectivity with regard to what is a "poor initialization" so I wouldnt be so quick to dismiss the Euro, especially since the ensembles are similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Basically the same thing as 0z. Precip was a little farther south, as the theme has gone for this set of runs. There's still maybe 5-6 inland runners in there. In terms of QPF, .1-.25 went for the northern half of our area, .25-.5 for the southern half. I'm still sticking with my 1-3 call for PHL at this time. It does seem that they (the Euro ensembles) have been pretty steady for at least three sounding runs or so. I'm guessing that the freebie site's purple haze is being caused by (what I think) those rogue inland runners. Even the gefs clustering is fairly tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NCEP Operational Status Message Thu Feb 16 20:33:07 2012 GMT NOUS42 KWNO 162031 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 2028Z THU FEB 16 2012 THE 18Z NAM POST PROCESSING BEGAN RUNNING LATE AFTER FORECAST HOUR 09...DELAYS HAVE GROWN TO OVER 20 MINUTES AT THIS TIME. PRODUCTION ANALYSTS ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING INTO THE ISSUE. WE REGRET ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY CAUSE... $$ OREILLY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Mt Holly has issued their first briefing package http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 What a nightmare of a forecast... If I didn't already say I was going to put out a snow map today I would probably have waited until tomorrow for a first call. As it is, I might do a second update before my final call on Saturday if the forecast seems to converge well over the next 24 hours. As has been the case all winter, the boundary layer temperatures are going to be a big issue with this event. Most (if not all) of the snow will be on the back end of the system, which doesn't help matters, either. The latest models would suggest pulling the QPF further south and maybe some of the snow totals along with it, but it wouldn't be much further south than what I currently have depicted. For the Philly metro, I don't think the snow rates will be good enough for long enough to get at least an inch out of this, but a coating to an inch is possible (if not likely). ----- For those of you who aren't familiar with my snow forecasts, I do make full verification maps and post them on Amwx as well as my blog - http://madusweather.com/ ...I haven't been doing as well as I would like so far this winter, so take the map for what it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 As Wes and DTK point out from the MA forum, there is a lot of subjectivity with regard to what is a "poor initialization" so I wouldnt be so quick to dismiss the Euro, especially since the ensembles are similar. We've seen this cut both ways. I would think this particular short wave should be better sampled now that it will be inland for tonight's 00z run. I get confused with all of the regional threads, but someone did say that this reminded him of 97-98 in that there was not alot of surface cold air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 18z NAM is further south. Northern edge of precip S of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NAM is south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 We've seen this cut both ways. I would think this particular short wave should be better sampled now that it will be inland for tonight's 00z run. I get confused with all of the regional threads, but someone did say that this reminded him of 97-98 in that there was not alot of surface cold air around. Tony. that might have been me. It's crazy that back then we were in a mega nino and now we're in a nina but warm is warm and lows that track up the coast with little in the way of cold are *^*& to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I tend to agree with Ellinwood... given the south trend today and the marginal BL temps at best, I'm highly worried that PHL can even manage an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Tony. that might have been me. It's crazy that back then we were in a mega nino and now we're in a nina but warm is warm and lows that track up the coast with little in the way of cold are *^*& to forecast. Wes, Yup you got that right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well, that's at least 4 GFS runs in a row that have trended south and slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well, that's at least 4 GFS runs in a row that have trended south and slower. Yup, at this point there is no model out there giving PHL area any significant snowfall....I know some people will rely on the "north trend", but at this point I'd say odds strongly favor little or no snowfall with this storm in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yup, at this point there is no model out there giving PHL area any significant snowfall....I know some people will rely on the "north trend", but at this point I'd say odds strongly favor little or no snowfall with this storm in the area. It definitely seems that way. I certainly wouldn't rule out a shift back north... but like you said, the odds don't seem to favor it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well, that's at least 4 GFS runs in a row that have trended south and slower. It had no choice. After yesterdays 12z and 18z runs, if that trend would have continued, you would have had mixing issues in your neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NBC10 going with 2 track possibility, track 1 more likely, the southern slider. Track 2 is the Quakertown special, not likely. Pushing 60f next Thursday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Too early to rule anything out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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