Yorkpa Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Im sorry guys,is this a Sunday morning start time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 latest tweet from JB for those interested (I know there are a few here) "feedback on GFS causes premature jump - the low near my track - worried correction has to be NORTH 50 to 75 miles no change for now" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GGEM is a miss south (even for DC, really) rumor has it UK the same, but i havent seen yet to confirm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 the bl stay absolutely sucks for the burbs and the city per soundings...a lovely 34 and slop snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GGEM is a miss south (even for DC, really) rumor has it UK the same, but i havent seen yet to confirm Measurable looks like a BWI-ACY line, the UKMET would be more disconcerting. Regardless I don't know if a line in the sand can be drawn much before the 12z soundings on Saturday anyway, looks like that's the first sounding that will have Texas convection to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Im sorry guys,is this a Sunday morning start time? As per the GFS yes. Trending slower fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Measurable looks like a BWI-ACY line, the UKMET would be more disconcerting. Regardless I don't know if a line in the sand can be drawn much before the 12z soundings on Saturday anyway, looks like that's the first sounding that will have Texas convection to it. That trough out west is bothering me a lot with this storm....just not where we want it for a big east coast event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looks like if I had to make a call this far out I would go with 2-4 inches snow starting as rain for Philly. These things due tend to shift north last minute but this go around that could result in warmer air and more rain at start. This is just a first guess and is likely to change as we probably will not know 100% what will happen till tomorrow evening at the earliest IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Which could translate to 32 and wet snow out here on the Welsh Mountain Anticline!! the bl stay absolutely sucks for the burbs and the city per soundings...a lovely 34 and slop snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 the bl stay absolutely sucks for the burbs and the city per soundings...a lovely 34 and slop snow Story of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coyoteweather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think that the worry about warmness is certainly warranted in this case since this storm will likely not wrap up into a powerhouse storm near the coast. Dynamic cooling in weaker storms is not as effective since the storm cannot draw in cold air as effectively. I'm thinking rain to snow for the I-95 corridor with all snow to the northwest. I still think the models might be under-doing precipitation if only for the reason that this storm is coming out of the Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Slower = colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think that the worry about warmness is certainly warranted in this case since this storm will likely not wrap up into a powerhouse storm near the coast. Dynamic cooling in weaker storms is not as effective since the storm cannot draw in cold air as effectively. I'm thinking rain to snow for the I-95 corridor with all snow to the northwest. I still think the models might be under-doing precipitation if only for the reason that this storm is coming out of the Gulf of Mexico. General with the GFS solution I would suspect the precipitation to be underdone along the coast with a 990 low but ultimately we really need to wait for this system to get on to us grounds so we can get better accurate data for 1 thing and we can see how the moisture unfolds down south. last night the event in the gulf coast states was stronger then models suggested. Does not mean much but then again we have see countless last minute model changes last week models went dryer on us last minute. there have also been other events that have gone wetter last minute. This is a type event where the last minute changes have a big effect on how much rain or how much snow fall accums and how far north or south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 euro continues the trend of most of the 12z models further south...maybe .1 up to philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 euro continues the trend of most of the 12z models further south...maybe .1 up to philly only .1 for entire storm run? interesting "battles of the models" continue.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 only .1 for entire run? interesting battles of the models continue.... yea .1 from the storm that may be generous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 yea .1 from the storm that may be generous... I have <.05 at PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 How far north does the measurable precip get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 compared to the 0z the northern and southern stream are further apart from phasing. What ultimately happens the northern stream out runs the southern energy creates the confluence over us and gives a flat look and forces the storm ene off hse. The phase doesn't occur till the storm is on the coast.. The 12z is a lot faster with the kicker in the center of the country which on the 0z run was still in the west. This ultimately just pushes everything along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I have <.05 at PHL. all i get is .1 and .25 increments.... i have the .1 line running through bwi to central new castle county to about acy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 troubling trend, I was worried this would happen once I saw Canadian and UKIE come in way south,...seen the Euro follow suit a lot of times in the past. Still time to change, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 How far north does the measurable precip get? The .05 isohyet runs just south of the M/D line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 How far north does the measurable precip get? i have on mine the .01 line to about edison, nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 all i get is .1 and .25 increments.... i have the .1 line running through central/northern new castle county to about acy Yup, and .05 is about 20 mi north of there... very sharp cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 QPF amounts for Southern New Jersey and Delaware? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yup, and .05 is about 20 mi north of there... very sharp cutoff will be interesting to see the ens...the models all picked up on something today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yup, and .05 is about 20 mi north of there... very sharp cutoff That would be painful to the DC crew. Yikes. The hills and mtns of central VA get blasted. Anyways, I'm sure we will see some more corrections in the next 36 hrs. These srn stream guys always try to throw curveballs. Either creep north or in this case, sail wide right thanks to the nrn stream clusterfook. It definitely looks like my area is toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 QPF amounts for Southern New Jersey and Delaware? southern nj is .1-.25, lean more towards the .1 central del .1-.25, southern del .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 southern nj is .1-.25, lean more towards the .1 central del .1-.25, southern del .25 What are the surface temperatures and thermal profiles like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 What are the surface temperatures and thermal profiles like? 850s in the -4 range...surface upper 30 to low 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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