anthonyweather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I doubt it imo. I think area wide gets moderate accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Agree 100% with this thinking. This has the makeup of a paper storm for many locations, where if you were to peer at the surface maps you'd think we'd have accumulating warning level snows in many places. However, given the the putrid BL's we could have 12+ hours of snow with next to zero accumulations. Without a deepening low to make it's own cold air as stated above we have about as marginal as you can get of a cold air supply. It's a classic "weenie" wtf storm. On other forums there are PHL folks talking about 6"+ verbatim from 0Z GFS b/c all they do is look at the surface maps. Then when the storm arrives and it's 36 and snowing for the last 10 hours they are all screaming where is the snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I doubt it imo. I think area wide gets moderate accums As it stands now location is very inmportan b/c of extrmely borderline BL temps. So for some it could be great and others not so much. I mean this is all likely to change in the coming days, but the BL's are a very big concern uless that low can deepen to the point that it will provide some cooling of it's own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 My gut instinct tells me to go with the precip. shield that the 06z GFS/00z Euro Ops are showing. What falls as rain and snow will be a different issue... initial call for PHL snow is 1-2" but I'll get more of the details hammered out when I make my initial forecast map this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 https://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/170143454939201536/photo/1 Here is snow map for weekend. No changes on storm tracks, models will waffle but I wont.. yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 https://twitter.com/...9201536/photo/1 Here is snow map for weekend. No changes on storm tracks, models will waffle but I wont.. yet Oh hell. I better get my rainboots ready then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 https://twitter.com/...9201536/photo/1 Here is snow map for weekend. No changes on storm tracks, models will waffle but I wont.. yet KOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 First map he's put out all year that I can't complain about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Tony, the 0z last night, 12z this morning, and the 0z tonight all have Pacific recon. Not that it helped much today I agree, the longwave pattern still seems fishy to me. Adam, Thanks. At least last night's runs they came closer. I'm off so just looking at the freebie site it looks like the euro and its ensembles are more in sync then they have been and the models in general are getting closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Adam, Thanks. At least last night's runs they came closer. I'm off so just looking at the freebie site it looks like the euro and its ensembles are more in sync then they have been and the models in general are getting closer. Yeah, though there are still some super amped Euro ensemble members that bring the low west of Philly (and maybe west of Harrisburg) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 First map he's put out all year that I can't complain about Oh yeah? He has me in the 6" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Oh yeah? He has me in the 6" range. It's not what I would forecast, but it's at least in the realm... not like last week where he had you 3+ and you never had a prayer of verifying that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 https://twitter.com/...9201536/photo/1 Here is snow map for weekend. No changes on storm tracks, models will waffle but I wont.. yet Map contours are hard to read. 3-6" for SE PA with a 6 or more for S. Jerz and northern Del.? Interesting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yeah, though there are still some super amped Euro ensemble members that bring the low west of Philly (and maybe west of Harrisburg) Putting my foot in my mouth I doubt those will come to fruition. I would expect more of a moderate option 2 (putting the other foot in my mouth) solution. Convection is always a funny aspect. I've seen it both help and hurt our chances here, the more the short waves keep some sort of negative tilt, the better (or wetter) we seem to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This looks very similar to the October event....elevation will play a big role in SE PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Putting my foot in my mouth I doubt those will come to fruition. I would expect more of a moderate option 2 (putting the other foot in my mouth) solution. Convection is always a funny aspect. I've seen it both help and hurt our chances here, the more the short waves keep some sort of negative tilt, the better (or wetter) we seem to do. I agree 100%. Re: the bolded, that's a reason to favor the Euro over the GFS at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 This looks very similar to the October event....elevation will play a big role in SE PA The 0z GFS is very similar to October event. I'm worried more about suppression and being on the wrong side of the precip cutoff than I am BL temps at this point, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This looks very similar to the October event....elevation will play a big role in SE PA Paul, My thoughts exactly, you don't want to go into an event with a high of 50 (on the coast) the day before with no change in air mass. Its as if this is a mid March system and not mid February. Our (coastal) hope is a more rapid intensification otherwise we'd probably get some 4:1 ratio event here (the part that falls as snow). Add some elevation and you'll do better, its been that type of season even when it has snowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It's not what I would forecast, but it's at least in the realm... not like last week where he had you 3+ and you never had a prayer of verifying that Yeah...that might be "best case" scenario out of the storm but it's not entirely unreasonable forecast IF best case comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The 0z GFS is very similar to October event. I'm worried more about suppression and being on the wrong side of the precip cutoff than I am BL temps at this point, though. I'm worried about the BL stealing some, so it sounds like we got all of the worried angles covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Map contours are hard to read. 3-6" for SE PA with a 6 or more for S. Jerz and northern Del.? Interesting.... No he is saying less than 3" for SE PA and 6" for the other areas, i assume he means 3-6" for that 6" area that he has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 One adjustment needed to JB's map is to put more emphasis on Va/MD/W Va mtns and less in coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 We are not in a bad position compared to where we were 2-3 days ago. This was always a thread the needle threat - looks like the eye is going to be nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 No he is saying less than 3" for SE PA and 6" for the other areas, i assume he means 3-6" for that 6" area that he has. We are prob. wasting way too much time analyzing a JB map (almost wonder if we need a Storm-Banter thread), but the way I read it, he has a 3" all the way up in Boston near that contour, than the 6" near S. Jerz. Oh well.......doesn't matter. Just burning time til the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 not that it matters much at this point (long edge of the NAM) but it is a bit weaker and slower at hr 60 and 63 on the 12z compared to the 0z at 72 and 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Adam, I guess it could happen but it seems like most storms do not go the suppression route....but that is not scientific and I will not question your professional wisdom vs my weenieview! Thx Paul The 0z GFS is very similar to October event. I'm worried more about suppression and being on the wrong side of the precip cutoff than I am BL temps at this point, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 not that it matters much at this point (long edge of the NAM) but it is a bit weaker and slower at hr 60 and 63 on the 12z compared to the 0z at 72 and 75. looking supressed thus far.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 To clarify what JB is saying from this morning "aspects of the weekend storm. The euro ensemble is directly on top of my track and the snow amounts are shown here. Please remember a storm like this is more likely to correct north than south as modeling is notorious for having too much northern branch in addition the water IS VERY WARM OFF THE EAST COAST, another factor that may aid in a shift north, but probably no more than 50 miles. This storm should go NORTH of Cape Hatteras but SOUTH of Norfolk. The storm is near MSY at 18z Sat and near the Mouth of the Chesapeake 18z Sunday. This is a pattern recognition event, with little wiggle room south and a bit more north. I want to emphasize you are not seeing a trend yet, nor is the faulty input yesterday causing the GFS shift south. Why would the euro shift north the way it has if it were. Its simply the modeling trying to get a hold of the players, listed 2 days ago and hone in. The argument for further north is 3 fold 1) most storms come further north on the east coast in Positive nao 2) The models look very strange in the great lakes in front running maxes 3) The southern system should be stronger, and pump the ridge more in front of it In any case l the 3 inch area runs through the big cities of I-95 from va north. with a 6 inch swath in there. I have had this track from the get go and think if I am going to move it, it will be north but not by all that much ( 50-75 miles. Again the euro ENSEMBLES have shifted and come to me, so confidence that I am identifying the right problem at least and the model is starting to see it is high. The 18z position Sunday is the Euro The water is very warm off the east coast! Heavy rains 1-2 inches near the track and severe weather is likely in the warm sector sat and sun" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I agree 100%. Re: the bolded, that's a reason to favor the Euro over the GFS at this time. I'm expecting the 12z gfs to go more toward the euro than vicer versa. (I ran out of feet, so now I'm putting my hands in my mouth). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z nam brings precip into the area at hr 84, looks scary how close it is to 6z gfs and 0z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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