famartin Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hello, my name is Brett and I am new to this forum. I will be attending Cornell next year and studying meteorology and have a blog at http://www.coyoteweather.com. As for this upcoming storm, I am going with 3-6 inches for the northern mid-atlantic region for now with no wrapped up blizzard due to a lack of blocking and a positive NAO and PNA. As an FYI, probably should be careful about using AccuPro images, they might not like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 As an FYI, probably should be careful about using AccuPro images, they might not like that. Ray maybe you want to book your flight to DCA or BWI and you can stay at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Ray maybe you want to book your flight to DCA or BWI and you can stay at my house. Not for a 5:1 ratio slop fest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Not for a 5:1 ratio slop fest I hear you, but after this winter i would take a 3:1 slop fest and be tickled pink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coyoteweather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 As an FYI, probably should be careful about using AccuPro images, they might not like that. Thanks for the advice, I'll keep it in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hello, my name is Brett and I am new to this forum. I will be attending Cornell next year and studying meteorology and have a blog at http://www.coyoteweather.com. As for this upcoming storm, I am going with 3-6 inches for the northern mid-atlantic region for now with no wrapped up blizzard due to a lack of blocking and a positive NAO and PNA. From one met major to another (future anyway), welcome! That's all I'll say for now since this is an active storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Thanks for the advice, I'll keep it in mind. Especially EC images... just about everyone who signs the contract with the EC folks is contracturally required to prevent redistribution of their QPF data to the general public (i.e., they can show it to their paying customers, but can't put it on their free website). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 6z GFS is weaker and a touch south w/ low and precip shield. To be honest, the best possible outcome for snow in Philly since everything is a touch colder and thicknesses are lower. Not as much precip in general but still a nice thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 6z GFS is weaker and a touch south w/ low and precip shield. To be honest, the best possible outcome for snow in Philly since everything is a touch colder and thicknesses are lower. Not as much precip in general but still a nice thump. If by "nice thump" you mean 1-2 inches in Philly, maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 6z GFS is weaker and a touch south w/ low and precip shield. To be honest, the best possible outcome for snow in Philly since everything is a touch colder and thicknesses are lower. Not as much precip in general but still a nice thump. It looks like .25-.5 QPF for SE PA, which isn't bad. But I never trust 6z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If by "nice thump" you mean 1-2 inches in Philly, maybe maybe 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 maybe 2-4 Its still warm at 18Z Sunday (sfc temp 36 with 850 of only -1.5)... rain. By 0Z its down to 33 with an 850 of -6.5... snow. 0.30" falls from 18Z-0Z, so assuming it cools at a linear rate, at best half of that might fall as snow... 1.5". 0.02" falls after 0Z... so my guess is 1-2" is the best you can hope for at PHL, assuming the GFS was perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Its still warm at 18Z Sunday (sfc temp 36 with 850 of only -1.5)... rain. By 0Z its down to 33 with an 850 of -6.5... snow. 0.30" falls from 18Z-0Z, so assuming it cools at a linear rate, at best half of that might fall as snow... 1.5". 0.02" falls after 0Z... so my guess is 1-2" is the best you can hope for at PHL, assuming the GFS was perfect. I know you're going verbatim (and yeah, that's what the models are showing) but iffffff things cool a bit more quickly aloft surface can be overridden a bit. Big if though....dynamics FTW or dynamic fail ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Just looking at the 6z it doesn't even look like the northern stream kicker for this system is even on shore yet. It will be just working onto the BC/Alaska coast at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I know you're going verbatim (and yeah, that's what the models are showing) but iffffff things cool a bit more quickly aloft surface can be overridden a bit. Big if though....dynamics FTW or dynamic fail ahead. While its true that the dynamics may cool things faster than progged... the more common reality is that the models tend to cool things too quickly in these situations, rather than the reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 FWIW, the ensemble spread is still large. At T+90, the Euro ensemble is showing everything from an inland (and maybe Apps?) runner to a well OTS solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 FWIW, the ensemble spread is still large. At T+90, the Euro ensemble is showing everything from an inland (and maybe Apps?) runner to a well OTS solution Thanks for the update, when do you think they will start converging on a solution? I'm hoping for a few inches out my way, but this one seems really tough to tell, my concern is possibly a more OTS scraper solution for us, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Thanks for the update, when do you think they will start converging on a solution? I'm hoping for a few inches out my way, but this one seems really tough to tell, my concern is possibly a more OTS scraper solution for us, but who knows. Maybe not until tonight 0z. My gut is still with the southern solutions given the longwave pattern. My initial guess on Monday was for VA to see the most significant snow, but we'll see. I'd call for a very uncertain 1-3" here right now, with more south of Philly and less north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Maybe not until tonight 0z. My gut is still with the southern solutions given the longwave pattern. My initial guess on Monday was for VA to see the most significant snow, but we'll see. I'd call for a very uncertain 1-3" here right now, with more south of Philly and less north. I'm liking a rain to messy snow change over for Philly. I don't think there will be much accumulation for the city with surface temps being too warm. Maybe some light accumulation as you go further west. If you want to see a good snow from this event go to the Mountains of VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm liking a rain to messy snow change over for Philly. I don't think there will be much accumulation for the city with surface temps being too warm. Maybe some light accumulation as you go further west. If you want to see a good snow from this event go to the Mountains of VA I'm not totally sold that we even see measurable precip out of this yet, let alone what the temps will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm not totally sold that we even see measurable precip out of this yet, let alone what the temps will be This should have a nice nrn edge with this, if it's all southern stream. Southern stream cutoffs usually have a good mid level frontogenesis/deformation band with them. Hopefully for you guys, you can get into it. That nrn edge will probably help out DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looks like everything is still up in the air based on looking at last night's models.....although maybe things starting to come together a little with a GFS shifting a bit southeast with track while the Canadian/Euro have nudged north a bit? Should be interesting what 12z shows..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 This should have a nice nrn edge with this, if it's all southern stream. Southern stream cutoffs usually have a good mid level frontogenesis/deformation band with them. Hopefully for you guys, you can get into it. That nrn edge will probably help out DC. Yeah, I feel confident that SOMEONE will get a foot out of this, but right now I'm leaning toward VA over farther north. I could see Ocean City, MD getting .5" liquid and PHL getting nothing, though that outcome is obviously not highly likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yeah, I feel confident that SOMEONE will get a foot out of this, but right now I'm leaning toward VA over farther north. I could see Ocean City, MD getting .5" liquid and PHL getting nothing, though that outcome is obviously not highly likely. Yeah this has the marking of a sharp cutoff. They always do when they come up from the Gulf, and you have confluence to the northeast. Good luck down there. I know you're not a big snow guy, but this could be an interesting storm for the mets/hobbyists. Deep down, we are all sickos and enjoy storms..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 P.S., if any of you are looking at the Euro mean precip/snow, it's definitely skewed. UNV, for example, is under the 2-4" in the mean, but their median is clearly 0. The mean 552dam is actually less amplified than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 To me the 6z GFS run looks like a wetter version of this past weekend at ILG. Starts as a non-accumulating snow/rain mix depending on intensity and then as the sun starts dropping then we start seeing heavier accumulating snows. For ILG it looks like around .65" of liquid and about 2/3 of that would be snow in the 2nd half of the storm. I'd take in a heartbeat this winter. I also like that it looks like guidance has gradually started getting colder too so hopefully that doesn't stop. A bit further NW with the low and we also start talking about a good spot for deformation snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm liking a rain to messy snow change over for Philly. I don't think there will be much accumulation for the city with surface temps being too warm. Maybe some light accumulation as you go further west. If you want to see a good snow from this event go to the Mountains of VA The only way we can "cash in" locally (IMO) is if this storm goes bonkers as it passes to our south and the CCB blows up down by DC and pushes through. Dynamic cooling is about the only way we really get more than slush/slop out of it. That's probably where we could get more than a couple inches out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Clown map from 6z has 2-3" for Philly proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 So right now, although confidence is low, it appears that this would be yet another in a long list of storms that give southern areas a decent snowfall while the northern, traditionally snowier locations, get fringed or even nothing at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The only way we can "cash in" locally (IMO) is if this storm goes bonkers as it passes to our south and the CCB blows up down by DC and pushes through. Dynamic cooling is about the only way we really get more than slush/slop out of it. That's probably where we could get more than a couple inches out of it. Agree 100% with this thinking. This has the makeup of a paper storm for many locations, where if you were to peer at the surface maps you'd think we'd have accumulating warning level snows in many places. However, given the the putrid BL's we could have 12+ hours of snow with next to zero accumulations. Without a deepening low to make it's own cold air as stated above we have about as marginal as you can get of a cold air supply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.