tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 one way to see if the nam is smoking the good stuff is to see how the rgem looks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 3:03 AM, cast4 said: Pretty much like 2/5/10 with regards to the cutoff. yeah just 50/75 miles south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 3:03 AM, cast4 said: Pretty much like 2/5/10 with regards to the cutoff. or 1/30/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 3:01 AM, famartin said: Not really much of a trend. can you please count the lines for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 3:06 AM, tombo82685 said: can you please count the lines for me My computer screen doesn't have the necessary resolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 3:03 AM, cast4 said: Pretty much like 2/5/10 with regards to the cutoff. Cutoff was farther north with that storm...ABE was basically riding the edge of the cutoff and got 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 3:05 AM, famartin said: Main difference is lack of cold, at least as far north as TTN a bit of that at the beginning is rain (though probably not much). Further southeast, more rain. ray is that 40km grid precip totals? Cause i did the normal grid, since the 40km grid only goes out to 60 hrs and got .43 for phl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 2:47 AM, tombo82685 said: mod snow now into phl and south jersey and all of del... .25 up to pa turnpike hr 72..central and southern del cash in if temps cooperate Tombo, when indicating your synopsis of snow areas, please include the LV (whether we get snow or not)as we too are in the Mt. Holly region. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 3:06 AM, tombo82685 said: can you please count the lines for me looks like the 7th or 8th line runs through philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Some forecasters for Foot's Forecast and a meteorologist I follow on Facebook were mentioning that the NAM may have had convective feedback, skewing the precip shield to the east. I don't see any feedback errors at all on this run. Who is right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 3:11 AM, tombo82685 said: ray is that 40km grid precip totals? Cause i did the normal grid, since the 40km grid only goes out to 60 hrs and got .43 for phl. I'm not sure honestly, but it may be. My secret source doesn't tell me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 3:09 AM, LVblizzard said: Cutoff was farther north with that storm...ABE was basically riding the edge of the cutoff and got 8". The cut-off is similar in total, but you are right its shifted south. Obviously since in that storm PHL had well over an inch and right now is progged for less than a half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 3:17 AM, LVblizzard said: Some forecasters for Foot's Forecast and a meteorologist I follow on Facebook were mentioning that the NAM may have had convective feedback, skewing the precip shield to the east. I don't see any feedback errors at all on this run. Who is right? Without a doubt the HPC will chime in soon saying a weather balloon popped on it's way up to gather data. EIGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 just comparing the rgem with the nam at h5 they are somewhat similiar but the rgem is slower with the northern stream impulse than the nam...comparing surface features the nam is alittle further north with low pressure and precip, and the nam has less confluence compared to rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 crayola map off the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The 00z NAM also has reduced BL issues. Would be a half decent accumulation in Delaware+SJersey as temps fall below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 im eager to see what the gfs shows...half of me thinks the nam is doing its usual shenanigans...but the inner weenie wants it to be right so adam is stuck shovelling snow instead of dreaming of tropical storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 3:27 AM, tombo82685 said: just comparing the rgem with the nam at h5 they are somewhat similiar but the rgem is slower with the northern stream impulse than the nam...comparing surface features the nam is alittle further north with low pressure and precip, and the nam has less confluence compared to rgem There are some differences but the RGEM looks more like the 00z NAM than the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 you can already see the differences at hr 30 between the nam and gfs. Gfs is faster with the northern stream, while the nam is slower and trying to phase in. This in return amplifies the ridge out ahead of it. While the gfs is flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GFS looks pretty close to the NAM. Northern s/w is a little faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 3:41 AM, chubbs said: There are some differences but the RGEM looks more like the 00z NAM than the 18z. The most important thing about the RGEM is that it does break off part of the northern stream as does the NAM, with a closed ULL in Nebraska at 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 3:51 AM, cast4 said: GFS looks pretty close to the NAM. Northern s/w is a little faster. i think they are a good bit apart at h5..the nam at hr 36 drops the northern stream in while the gfs doesnt...the gfs is much flatter with the hgts along the ec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 3:54 AM, tombo82685 said: i think they are a good bit apart at h5..the nam at hr 36 drops the northern stream in while the gfs doesnt...the gfs is much flatter with the hgts along the ec It looks like it tries at 42 but the phase is definitely sloppier. Yeah, it shouldn't be as far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 one postive i do see at hr 54 the northern stream is moving out faster, hgts along the ec are higher...this may bump up a little north...we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is the timeframe where the GFS will continue its flatter solution....still too far out for it to see it's way. Further north but not there.....stay tuned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks better than 18z. Half decent phase. edit: ended up a little flatter continuing GFS trend in recent runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GFS shows a phase but yet did not come north I would suspect BIAS is at play. we shall see what the other models say and of course future runs and its ensembles tonight may correct this. storm is Defiantly getting interesting as Glen just said on tv! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 yeah, GFS flatter and farther south than NAM, looks like measurable gets around PHL, but I will have to take a closer look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 0Z GFS is essentially the same as 18Z for all intents and purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 4:18 AM, famartin said: 0Z GFS is essentially the same as 18Z for all intents and purposes. Ray what about for a 10:1 ratio pasting, are you booking a ticket yet to come to me?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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