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2/19 Weekend Threat


am19psu

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He would need a flatter solution with the northern stream hanging tougher. Meanwhile, we would need the 50/60 low to get out of the way.

Seems like a number of solutions are on the table, but none of them would create a KU storm, unless you get all of the noise out of the pattern. I think a system like this past weekend with greater moisture flux is where I would place my hopes.

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On a serious note. I know adam outlined this timeframe. Looking over the indexes this is the best shot of something half way decent. Pna is progged to go pos, nao around neutral, mjo going from phase 8 to 1, argue for an east coast storm. Some of the gefs do have a semblance of a 50/50 low. Risk here is if this does come up their really isn't anything stoping this from tracking somewhat inland. I don;t think this is going to go way inland do to the progressive nature of the pattern out west. The threat does have some legs, thats all that can be said as of right now till we get closer.

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This week is going to suck to forecast. Yes, a significant event is obviously on the table, but the Euro ensemble members show everything from a lakes cutter to an OTS solution and everything in between. The means shows a fairly robust signal for Days 5-6, but there is a lot of spread.

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Key will be the 50/60 near NF...if that is stronger (GFS style) we'll have suppression city. I'd lean towards a miss and some suppression with this based on the northern stream tending to do model out better (and the GFS tends to handle the northern stream a touch better in general)...it's hardly a "lock" though.

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Key will be the 50/60 near NF...if that is stronger (GFS style) we'll have suppression city. Just based on "past" performance with Ninas, northern stream dominance tends to win so I'd lean towards a miss and some suppression with this...it's hardly a "lock" though.

That's where my head is, as well

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Do I dare to check the NY City forum?

They are pumped! :snowwindow:;)

post-623-0-43899300-1329226988.jpg

All joking aside. Any of the other recent winters if I was on the long range desk I'd be leaning 2/3rds or 3/4ths toward the Euro solution today with our forecast. This winter it has had too many Lucy Van Pelt moments to have confidence that its op solution is more likely than any other. Its gotta keep it within 96 hours and then I'll join the party.

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I for one would be more than willing to roll the dice on BL issues if we can just get the storm up the coast per the 0z Euro. The inner weenie says this is exactly how Feb 2010 looked early on (yes I know its a completely different regime etc).

Well I shouldn't be that surprised since we have essentially had three months of March temps this winter, even with what occurred around us last weekend, its as if the expected accumulative impacts are more in line with mid March and not mid February with these systems even when they track to our southeast.

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