burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 JB faithful coming out of the woodwork in 3..2..1.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Well our only saving grace is the NAM and GFS look nothing alike even out to 48 hours....but that doesn't comfort me much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 This run goes to heck quickly, roughly hour 60-72...the 50-50 low we need to consolidate actually separates and part of the stream phases with a piece of energy diving in from Canada which strings it out. Nam at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 You don't want to see the map @102 JB drew it> I'll have to stay up for crazy uncle, Can't sleep on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 This thing isnt done coming NW if that low pressure across the lakes remains. I wouldnt feel safe anywhere east of the apps anywhere on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 DT speaks before JB... Wxrisk.com *** ALERT ** OZ GFS will be showing NO coastal Low of any kind will will Likely show a Low going waaaaaaaaaay inland or up over the Appalachians. At 84 hrs the Model has removed or "lost" the Big Upper Low over se Canada so the Model merges or "phases the 2 Jet streams into a BIG trough HUNDREDS of miles further west of every oher Model has been showing and what the last 14 runs of the GFS Model HAS been showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 JB drew it> I'll have to stay up for crazy uncle, Can't sleep on that run Well I'm off to bed, I've seen enough. Good luck to everyone staying up for the Doc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 JB faithful coming out of the woodwork in 3..2..1.. hey, at least there is optimism from someone. Better hearing from him than a debbie downer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Well our only saving grace is the NAM and GFS look nothing alike even out to 48 hours....but that doesn't comfort me much. Hopefully for our sake this is the GFS being to progressive with the SW out west, if it slows down, allows the 50-50 to develop it would be a much different run, maybe not enough for us, but wouldn't be this miller b junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Wxrisk.com *** ALERT ** OZ GFS will be showing NO coastal Low of any kind will will Likely show a Low going waaaaaaaaaay inland or up over the Appalachians. At 84 hrs the Model has removed or "lost" the Big Upper Low over se Canada so the Model merges or "phases the 2 Jet streams into a BIG trough HUNDREDS of miles further west of every oher Model has been showing and what the last 14 runs of the GFS Model HAS been showing [/quote Thanks Solak. Ashame GFS still does it day 3-5 trampolene acts . Haven't noticed this year due to the fact we haven't had anything to track inside 5 days. But it clearly is way off compared to other models this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Wow.......if this continues severe will be the issue not snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The GFS has just been all over the place the last couple days. I'm sure one of them has to be right, it's basically covered all the bases at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Hopefully for our sake this is the GFS being to progressive with the SW out west, if it slows down, allows the 50-50 to develop it would be a much different run, maybe not enough for us, but wouldn't be this miller b junk. I don't think this is a miller b. If it were a miller B, then a primary would move up the apps or just west of the apps, weaken, and transfer energy to a secondary along the coast. Miller b's are often accompanied by CAD. The 00z GFS shows no secondary or transfer of energy and there is no CAD showing up as a result of the 2 lp's. It is just one low pressure that takes a track that isn't good for the southeast. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I don't think this is a miller b. If it were a miller B, then a primary would move up the apps or just west of the apps, weaken, and transfer energy to a secondary along the coast. Miller b's are often accompanied by CAD. The 00z GFS shows no secondary or transfer of energy and there is no CAD showing up as a result of the 2 lp's. It is just one low pressure that takes a track that isn't good for the southeast. TW There's 2 lows, 1 over the lakes, one running up NC that consolidates. The primary is over the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 There's 2 lows, 1 over the lakes, one running up NC that consolidates. The primary is over the lakes. You sure that's a miller B? Most miller b's I'm familiar with have the primary moving up the apps or tennesee valley and then transferring to the coast. The low over the lakes has nothing to do with a miller b I don't think. I'm no pro, but think there is a difference between a miller b and what you are describing. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 anybody wanna get a laugh take a look at the difference b/n the gfs and ggem at 96 hours. never seen such variance in timing. to me this all looks dependant on the timing of the southern vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 You sure that's a miller B? Most miller b's I'm familiar with have the primary moving up the apps or tennesee valley and then transferring to the coast. The low over the lakes has nothing to do with a miller b I don't think. I'm no pro, but think there is a difference between a miller b and what you are describing. TW Yep should have clarified, sorry, you are probably right, this might not be a "miller b" but the primary low is up over the lakes and there is another low running up the GA/NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 anybody wanna get a laugh take a look at the difference b/n the gfs and ggem at 96 hours. never seen such variance in timing. to me this all looks dependant on the timing of the southern vortex. The GGEM looks like it's holding serve to it's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Whole lot different set up north on GGEM. Allows HP to tuck in behind our neighborhood 50/50 low and press track south and send cold down , epeacilly backside. Looks like Mobile bay to Charleston track to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 UKMet looks pretty good at 96...closer to the NAM look with ~1004mb sfc low over New Orleans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The Weather World speaks tonight: ****The 0z GFS shows 6-12 inches in D.C. 12-18 inches in Philly and 15-20 inches in NYC for the Sunday-Monday night storm."*** Inland PA and in the mountains over 20 inches of snow!! Now can the other models follow suite? Is this just a fluke? Lets not go overboard here, but wow, what an amazing run. HUGE differences. This storm is now a legitimate threat for the area. (Frank) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 UKMet looks pretty good at 96...closer to the NAM look with ~1004mb sfc low over New Orleans ukmet(color) vs gfs. notice the southern stream. unreal to see the differences only 3 days down the road. i think the gfs is out to lunch here. if history repeats itself, the euro will likely side with the ukmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The GGEM looks like it's holding serve to it's 12z run. A little warmer and less amped far as I can tell. 0C 850 isotherm straddles the nc/va boarder at 108 hrs, an only comes south slightly thereafter between 114 and 120. NW NC may be ok, but verbatim a central VA hit on the northern fringe of the precip shield. UKMET takes a track from LA coast through s GA to OTS, don't have temps but think it would be warm base on heights, looks nothing like the gfs, more in line with the Canadian no surprise there. GFS quickly becoming an outlier with the 0z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 ukmet(color) vs gfs. notice the southern stream. unreal to see the differences only 3 days down the road. i think the gfs is out to lunch here. if history repeats itself, the euro will likely side with the ukmet. Guesstimate is that the sfc low on the UKMet tracks from New Orleans across far south Georgia then at a point due south of Hatteras and due east of Savannah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Hey guys, just checking in. Amateur here, but just scanning over the 18z GFS, on twisterdata, seems it throws down some snowfall for NC and TN. Looks a bit delayed now so Sunday night / Monday time-frame. Is that correct? Still not a ideal setup I agree from what I have been reading here, maybe far from it. Really hoping for something across the northern foothills this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Not impressed with the model runs tonight. CMC looks warm and only probably brings snow to higher elevations of the mountains. The GFS was a train wreck tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Long way to go, but the Canadian looks like a good compromise solution to me at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Long way to go, but the Canadian looks like a good compromise solution to me at this point. A little back end snow for N parts of NC never hurt anyone.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 0Z EURO is rolling. This will be a interesting run to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Euro looks quite similar to the morning run thru 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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