Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 models are waffling. around friday the models will latch on. I hope they do...24 hrs or so out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 models are waffling. around friday the models will latch on. 4. The words, "tomorrow we will know" will be posted multiple times every day until 24 hours before storm onset.6. A run with no model showing the storm or a flip flop away from a storm will be followed by the words, "the models still don't have a good handle on this event." This will be followed by the words in number 4. 8. As zero hour approaches someone will post, "it's a matter of nowcasting now". This means that despite 7 days and nights of model watching, loss of sleep, loss of productivity on our jobs and alienating our families we still won't know what is going to happen until it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Frank Strait just posted a video about the upcoming potential storm. http://www.accuweath...-big-snow/61601 Since this weekends possible storm is the first real threat of this depressing winter I thought I would review the usual chain of events that will occur in the storm thread. 1. Storm first appears X days out. Mass excitement reigns. 2. Models that do not agree are outliers. 3. A model that shows a good hit can not, by definition, be an outlier. 4. The words, "tomorrow we will know" will be posted multiple times every day until 24 hours before storm onset. 5. The words, "storm dynamics will generate it's own cold air" means we are screwed but would never admit it. 6. A run with no model showing the storm or a flip flop away from a storm will be followed by the words, "the models still don't have a good handle on this event." This will be followed by the words in number 4. 7. Analogs will be posted and previous events mentioned, that have no relationship to the current storm. Examples, March 1960, 1993. 8. As zero hour approaches someone will post, "it's a matter of nowcasting now". This means that despite 7 days and nights of model watching, loss of sleep, loss of productivity on our jobs and alienating our families we still won't know what is going to happen until it happens. 9. Many posts will appear that start with, "I can't understand why it is not......" Others will contain cuss words combined with the term "dry slot". 10. Someone will post that the 360 hour GFS looks interesting and send us all back to number 1. ADDENDUM: Brick will be happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad. And that is just the first 24 hours. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 My judgment is the pros down at KGSP have a good handle on this potential. Relax, sit back, get some work done, lighten up on the wishcasting and let KGSP do the driving for you on this one. I feel the guys over at KGSP have an excellent handle on winter events in western NC and the High Country, one of the best NWS offices around. KRNK and KRDU also round out the quality NWS coverage for our area. All are a big asset to our area. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE FCST HAS BEEN CONSTRUCTED WITH THE ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLN AS THE GENERAL GUIDELINE. CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD COMMENCE ACROSS THE NRN GOM MID DAY SAT AND TRACK TO THE NE ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH 18Z SUN. THIS IS A RELATIVELY WARM SCENARIO AS FAR AS WINTRY PRECIP IS CONCERNED...HOWEVER ACROSS THE NC MTNS THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME MIXED -FZ/RA/IP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A MODEST WARM NOSE WILL DEVELOP AROUND 4.5 KFT TO 5 KFT WHILE SFC WETBULBS WILL ALLOW FOR AN ICY PRECIP MIX ABOVE 4 KFT. RIGHT NOW THE VALLEYS LOOK TO WARM FOR MUCH OF AN OVERNIGHT CHANGEOVER THREAT. TOO EARLY TO COMMENT ON ICE OR PRECIP AMOUNTS ATTM AS MASS FIELDS COULD ADJUST SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE NEAR THE EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I like that nice snow hole, directly over my house. A Burger's dreams include a complete blanking of the state of Ga., lol. Oh, well, it will go south and through Fla. in the end, and Ga. will do alright, thank you very much. And I kind of like the way the 24/25, and again near the end of the month are looking. Just a little good fortune and the last of Feb. could be the stuff all our epic dreams are made of Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 84 hour of the 00z NAM doesn't look bad to me, hard to extrapolate further down the road but colder than 18z at the same time frame, it might help to have a little bit of cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Well, the 00z NAM still has a closed ULL @ 84HR. In fact, looks like part of New Mexico gets slammed with 10" of snow. That's new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I hope this system does not phase too early and take a hike through the midwest/GL region. That would be our luck this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Nice 1027 high popping at 84hr on 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 84 hour of the 00z NAM doesn't look bad to me, hard to extrapolate further down the road but colder than 18z at the same time frame, it might help to have a little bit of cold air in place. Vort looks pretty impressive on 84HR sim radar. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/00/nam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Nice 1027 high popping at 84hr on 0z NAM. Yep, that's a good sign NAM needs to keep that trend going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Nice 1027 high popping at 84hr on 0z NAM. Check out the jet setup... Much stronger than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Vort looks pretty impressive on 84HR sim radar. http://mag.ncep.noaa...4_sim_radar.gif That's right out of the NAM LR playbook though it always throws crazy amounts of moisture that far out with systems like this...or from what I can recall anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 A Burger's dreams include a complete blanking of the state of Ga., lol. Oh, well, it will go south and through Fla. in the end, and Ga. will do alright, thank you very much. And I kind of like the way the 24/25, and again near the end of the month are looking. Just a little good fortune and the last of Feb. could be the stuff all our epic dreams are made of Tony It very well could! I hope we get a couple of events that pretty much take care of all of us....I don't think we can all be happy with the same storm, unfortunately, especially given marginal cold. 84 Nam is looking interesting though. We'll see how the longer ranges models look in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The only issue that concerns me is the system coming through in a few days. We really need that to drag the thicknesses low enough to prevent this from being a total dynaically-relient snow event. There are hints of cold air damming on some ensembles members of the gfs. We want this preceding system to really cutoff over the northeast and tug in the HP over the midwest behind it. This kind of sets the stage. From that point, whether this phases completely or just partially really doesn't matter. There will at least be some snow. +1. the storm/qpf will be there. Not sure in what form and when/where or perhaps if it fully phases e.t.c. But it's highly likely to be enroute w-e across the south come this weekend. Of course we'd all like to see it fully phase, close off about 4 -5 contours and go negative tilt across the Fla panhandle/Jax-Sav. Track is important, but to me our chances of seeing some accum snow will increase significantly with some confluence help from up north. Been reading on/off all day at work. That was a great breakdown by your brother earler as well as excellent disco by others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Check out the jet setup... Much stronger than the GFS So would this be favorable for snow for portions of the southeast? I don't know all too much of the jet streams effects on the troposphere yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 So would this be favorable for snow for portions of the southeast? I don't know all too much of the jet streams effects on the troposphere yet. Quick overview better than I can explain it... http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/cyc/upa/vrt.rxml A little more in depth... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=jet_streaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The NAM looks awfully good. Wish it wasn't on an island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Just posted by JB on fb "All this takes the joy out of watching the models come in and hopefully catching the phasing on the east coast I think is coming" ---------------------------------------- Quick overview better than I can explain it... http://ww2010.atmos....yc/upa/vrt.rxml A little more in depth... http://www.crh.noaa..../?n=jet_streaks Thanks for the links! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Is that energy diving down into the Rockies going to phase now on this run? @66 our energy out west is not as strong and you've got some energy screaming down the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Another run another solution...very close to having a big phase... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yeah, the 50-50 needs to be better organized and stronger, this is going inland, probably up through central GA...Probably a MA special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Tons of moisture on this run. GA is getting a heck of a lot of rain so that should make T happy at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Not even close to what we want, nobody is going to ilke this. There is a vort over Maine, vort over the lakes, we need that to be consolidated into our 50-50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 We'll need a phase to get the cold this run, can't get stars aligned right north of border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Booster ignition? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Passing over Augusta aint gonna cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yeah, the 50-50 needs to be better organized and stronger, this is going inland, probably up through central GA...Probably a MA special I agree pb...50/50 not strong enough to keep from going inland. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 You don't want to see the map @102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yep, going right over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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