burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Not too bad, snow now in WNC @117 850 line runs Northern GA up the NC border just west of CLT to just east of RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 well I cant say I'm displeased by this run but I'm rooting for NC to get creamed too... thats where the heart is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Snow in CLT/RDU if the precip rates are good enough from 120 - 123.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 TN gets slammed on this run as well as the MA and VA. Wow, knew around 90hrs this was going to be a wild run, E TN through central VA looks to be the sweet spot, of course central NC gets slotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Northern stream more involved with this run, but the timing doesnt come together in time for most of us. Would probably be a good scenario for central/N Va, mid-atlantic coast. It is close to a big one for the SE, but rain for most maybe ending as snow across NC/TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 @126 it's pulling away with maybe some flakes in eastern NC....sfc temps as always not where we want them to be verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Outside of the mtns, you don't want anything that looks like the 18z GFS in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Wow, knew around 90hrs this was going to be a wild run, E TN through central VA looks to be the sweet spot, of course central NC gets slotted. One thing we know for sure, if it sets up and slams someone, as Allan alluded to earlier there will be BIG winners and BIG losers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 TN gets slammed on this run as well as the MA and VA. Yeah, decent run for us. I'll enjoy it for 6 more hours then let someone else have some fun with it...... Edit: I'll enjoy the nice cold rain for 6 more hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Outside of the mtns, you don't want anything that looks like the 18z GFS in NC Precip rates not strong enough to overwhelm the warm air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Precip rates not strong enough to overwhelm the warm air? H-bomb no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I know there is this underlying assumption that boundary layer issues will magically be resolved, but the 10m 0C line never even makes it into Virginia on this run, much less NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 It will really have to be wrapped up for this to get the valleys of E TN. Looks like it would ram warm air up the valley and we would be dependent on the tap from the Atlantic for snow. Usually the downslope stops that unless the pressure really drops rapidly. No cold in place with weak high pressure... sure smells like a miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 When a usually "cold" model isn't really cold enough for snow, even up here in northeast TN, that should sound alarms. That said, great qpf track for TN in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The location of the high pressure is going to severely inhibit the barrier jet. the past few runs 3 runs of the GFS has not featured the high in a favorable spot. Hopefully the models will trend it to a favorable place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The DGEX is wayyyyy inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The location of the high pressure is going to severely inhibit the barrier jet. the past few runs 3 runs of the GFS has not featured the high in a favorable spot. Hopefully the models will trend it to a favorable place. Look on the bright side, 12 hours ago there was a low over the lakes and nary a sign of hp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 E. Tenn. and WNC get slammed for now. It'll change tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 CIPS Analog guidance based on the 12z GFS @ 120hrs, top 15 analogs Mean SN-fall Probability >4" SN 500mb 850 temps (red flag, big one, but that is assuming the 12z GFS has a firm handle this far out which is unlikely) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 E. Tenn. and WNC get slammed for now. It'll change tonight Yeah, with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I posted this in the other thread by mistake... Took a look at CIPS Cold-Season Analogs. Some famous analogs shown: 3/24/1983, 2/12/2010, 1/30/2010, 1/24-25/2000. hour 96 http://www.eas.slu.e...SNOW&sort=FINAL hour 120 http://www.eas.slu.e...SNOW&sort=FINAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 There is no snow accumulation south of DC except the northern mtns on the DGEX. It actually pushes the rn line well into Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 lol this one is the stuff my dreams are made of. Hopefully we end up with a trend closer to this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 There is no snow accumulation south of DC except the northern mtns on the DGEX. It actually pushes the rn line well into Ohio. Yea it looked horrible for anyone in the SE. Surprised based on the 84hr look on the NAM but as Skip and Chris pointed out the DGEX might be on the magic mushrooms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The only issue that concerns me is the system coming through in a few days. We really need that to drag the thicknesses low enough to prevent this from being a total dynaically-relient snow event. There are hints of cold air damming on some ensembles members of the gfs. We want this preceding system to really cutoff over the northeast and tug in the HP over the midwest behind it. This kind of sets the stage. From that point, whether this phases completely or just partially really doesn't matter. There will at least be some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 What a map. Alot would be happy with that. Great disco today folks! lol this one is the stuff my dreams are made of. Hopefully we end up with a trend closer to this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 What's up boys and girls? Been following on Blackberry all day. Some really good discussion, and as has already been said, there are a lot of options on the table. There are plenty of details to gripe about at this point, but the one big factor here is that out of this whole entire Winter, this threat isn't disappearing as we close in on it....yet. So that's a great thing. The one real key development today that is probably the most important thing I've seen so far (other than the storm actually being there) is the development of a High Pressure moving in from central Canada. Most of the modeling is either hinting at or showing this. Yesterday, most were not. That is going to be key. We can talk about its location and strength later. Right now, we need to see it show up and be real. If it's not there, then outside of dynamics (which most probably don't want to rely on), we'll be looking a nice cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 lol this one is the stuff my dreams are made of. Hopefully we end up with a trend closer to this.. I like that nice snow hole, directly over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Precip rates not strong enough to overwhelm the warm air? I hate playing that game. It ends in disaster more often that not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 models are waffling. around friday the models will latch on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.