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Feb. 18-20, 2012 Disco/Analysis


Poimen

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How well does the SREF perform? It looked to me to have more interaction between the two systems, maybe phasing right over the Carolina's....it certainly looks to have a heavier precip shield across the northern half of NC...thoughts?

did well during 2010 Christmas storm, I believe it was the first to bring storm back up afer all lost it on 23rd?

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Since it is slow this morning I'll ask....... does anyone have a link to where I can find current dewpoints? I want to track those if possible. I thought Dacula had one of his maps with dewpoint overlays but I cannot seem to find it. Ok, back to storm mode

You can also try this site - http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/map/

Just change the dropdown in the top right from Air Temperature to Dewpoint Temperature

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did well during 2010 Christmas storm, I believe it was the first to bring storm back up afer all lost it on 23rd?

I was thinking the same thing...in fact the day of that storm for me it wasn't looking so great then a short range model, I think it was SREF, started showing some serious uvv's in eastern NC and well I went from disappointed to 11"..NOT that I expect that but just from a model performance it did better in the 11th hour..

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The 0Z GFS had 4-5" of snow for the Triad and Triangle. The 6Z GFS cut that back to 1-3" and brought the 4" line northward to the NC/VA border leaving 4"+ snowfall amounts only in NW NC (mainly mountains). SW VA does better on the 6Z run.

The 0Z GFS had the 2" snowfall line almost down to Charlotte. The 6Z GFS moved that north ~75 miles.

Any opinions on which of the two runs is more likely to verify more closely and the reason for the rather abrupt shift north?

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The 6Z GFS had 4-5" of snow for the Triad and Triangle. The 6Z GFS cut that back to 1-3" and brought the 4" line northward to the NC/VA border leaving 4"+ snowfall amounts only in NW NC (mainly mountains). SW VA does better on the 6Z run.

The 0Z GFS had the 2" snowfall line almost down to Charlotte. The 6Z GFS moved that north ~75 miles.

Any opinions on which of the two runs is more likely to verify more closely and the reason for the rather abrupt shift north?

Isn't the big issue that phasing energy on the backside? 00z had it just in time to actually help us further south out. 6z keeps it separate.

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Looking at the base reflectivity for the SE- I really like the look on the radar- the light rain and drizzle over central NC will begin to fill in substantially before the bulk of the precip in TN pulls through. The look (at least on radar) of the trailing low reminds me somewhat of the Feb. 26, 2004 storm- cold air dynamics are a lot different, but everyone in the southern piedmont knows how that ended up. We received around 4-6" of snow from the first part of that storm, got a break/dry slot, and then the trailing low bombed out. That storm was forecasted to go north and drop the greatest totals in northern NC/southern VA, but it actually ended up about 100 mi or so south of the forecast. This looks to be a very interesting next 24 hours for all of NC

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