griteater Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 To me, the 18z NAM looks really favorable for NC. It has the southern stream low in almost the identical position as the 12z CMC, and the northern stream looks better defined, with more confluence which could lead to a stronger high. Completely agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 To me, the 18z NAM looks really favorable for NC. It has the southern stream low in almost the identical position as the 12z CMC, and the northern stream looks better defined, with more confluence which could lead to a stronger high. Thanks for the input and time. I agree, and as the poster above mentioned it should make for an interesting DGEX map to atleast gawk at for a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Per ORH-wxman in the NE sub, EC ensembles are more amped than the op and not as far SE. Roughly 1/3 of the group that are pretty wound up, and majority (2/3) of the others are not. Mean takes a track through southern GA to off the NC coast, elongated system, kind of strung out but that is to be expected from a consensus of mixed solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The NAM looks better than any other model to me at this point (not just this run)....not it's strong suit outside of 48-54 hours though. Exactly but it certainly is interesting to see. For what it's worth during that time frame it has been bullish about the energy hitting the baja and it's strength...but of course where it goes from there could be anyone's guess. Figure even when it gets in it's range it will change a lot but at least for now it has the path setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Exactly but it certainly is interesting to see. For what it's worth during that time frame it has been bullish about the energy hitting the baja and it's strength...but of course where it goes from there could be anyone's guess. Figure even when it gets in it's range it will change a lot but at least for now it has the path setup. The nam has been consistent. The last three dgex runs are an example of that. Even though its not a great model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Exactly but it certainly is interesting to see. For what it's worth during that time frame it has been bullish about the energy hitting the baja and it's strength...but of course where it goes from there could be anyone's guess. Figure even when it gets in it's range it will change a lot but at least for now it has the path setup. I agree with the above, that looks pretty good/borderline great at 84hrs, cutoff wrapping up in SE Canada, and check out the heights in the MA compared to the GFS, over 100m difference. Cold front coming through the Carolinas Friday night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 This could end up being a very moist system given the stout southern wave and it's deep south track. Various model runs have hinted at strong comma head precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Euro ensemble mean is definitely a bit more impressive than the operational. Low is more consolidated on the mean than the operational interestingly enough. Track is a touch further north in response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Euro ensemble mean is definitely a bit more impressive than the operational. Low is more consolidated on the mean than the operational interestingly enough. Track is a touch further north in response. Nice placement of lp, but is it cold enough????? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Euro ensemble mean is definitely a bit more impressive than the operational. Low is more consolidated on the mean than the operational interestingly enough. Track is a touch further north in response. It looks like the 50/50 low is pretty amped up on the Euro ensemble mean too, or am I reading that wrong? I can't say I'm buying back into this thing but the NAM's output and the Ensemble mean output versus the operationals are interesting. Seems like a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 It looks like the 50/50 low is pretty amped up on the Euro ensemble mean too, or am I reading that wrong? I can't say I'm buying back into this thing but the NAM's output and the Ensemble mean output versus the operationals are interesting. Seems like a huge difference. As Matt posted earlier because there are so many players on the field so to speak you'll get many solutions as each model times everything different. This will be a fun roller-coaster ride we just have to hope the track doesn't derail at the very last loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I agree with the above, that looks pretty good/borderline great at 84hrs, cutoff wrapping up in SE Canada, and check out the heights in the MA compared to the GFS, over 100m difference. Cold front coming through the Carolinas Friday night... Question if the DGEX comes in with another slam, has it ever been this consistent? I mean it's been hinting something for a few runs now (although 18z yesterday may have been off). I hate to even ask that question but jeez it sure is ringing that bell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 For what it's worth, the 12z ECMWF(operational) put out no snow over North Carolina except the very far WSW mountains. Nothing even in the NW mountains. 18z DGEX: Have to go to far NW Virgina for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I will probably get slammed for saying this -- and certainly have to data to support my claim -- but it seems to me that for a few storms last year and in year's past, the DGEX was actually first to pick up on the potential for a "big dog." Question if the DGEX comes in with another slam, has it ever been this consistent? I mean it's been hinting something for a few runs now (although 18z yesterday may have been off). I hate to even ask that question but jeez it sure is ringing that bell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Question if the DGEX comes in with another slam, has it ever been this consistent? I mean it's been hinting something for a few runs now (although 18z yesterday may have been off). I hate to even ask that question but jeez it sure is ringing that bell. You don't even want to look at the 18z DGEX man, trust me. As Ian put it yesterday in the MA sub, the DGEX is like the NAM on psychedelic mushrooms, and this run lives up to that. Cuts the primary up through the TN Valley and then transfers to the NC coast, yep, you guessed it, a Miller B, no joke... Clobbers the 95 corridor from BWI-NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 You don't even want to look at the 18z DGEX man, trust me. As Ian put it yesterday in the MA sub, the DGEX is like the NAM on psychedelic mushrooms, and this run lives up to that. Cuts the primary up through the TN Valley and then transfers to the NC coast, yep, you guessed it, a Miller B, no joke... Yuck...guess we know what JB is about to tweet next. Wow, wouldn't have guessed that guess I got what I deserved asking about the consistency of the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I will probably get slammed for saying this -- and certainly have to data to support my claim -- but it seems to me that for a few storms last year and in year's past, the DGEX was actually first to pick up on the potential for a "big dog." This is especially the case with southern impulses. The main reason is b/c the global models tend to shear out s/w's prematurely (especially the GFS). The dgex tends to maintain them better and as a result it tends to pick up on stronger storms sooner. This use to be much more prevalent back in the early 2000's. I remember the old school ETA and ETAX were the same way. There was a storm several years ago(a bust btw) that had RDU getting over 3 inches of qpf in the form of snow. I want to say it was the Dec2000 bust, but I can't recall for sure. Needless to say this was a result of overdoing s/w's and phasing. The current GFS use to be this way under the AVN and MRF versions. That's why modelology is all about taking the middle road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 So we've seen a miller-A, an OTS, a flat elongated nothing, and now a miller-B. It'll be at least another 24hrs before this wave gets handled with any realistic consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 18z GFS looks to give us yet another solution @87 our energy in TX is taking on a neutral tilt and looks to maybe partially phase with some energy that was diving into the plains. Someone correct me if I'm wrong on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Yeah -- maybe the DGEX loaned it a few bags of whatever it was smoking .... Also, the S/w off the Pacifc NW coast is stronger and faster.... 18z GFS looks to give us yet another solution @87 our energy in TX is taking on a neutral tilt and looks to maybe partially phase with some energy that was diving into the plains. Someone correct me if I'm wrong on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 18z GFS looks to give us yet another solution @87 our energy in TX is taking on a neutral tilt and looks to maybe partially phase with some energy that was diving into the plains. Someone correct me if I'm wrong on that. this run actually looks promising if it doesnt cut inland too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 NAM looks miles better than the GFS at 84 over the Great Lakes with respect to the cold air setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 18z GFS looks to give us yet another solution @87 our energy in TX is taking on a neutral tilt and looks to maybe partially phase with some energy that was diving into the plains. Someone correct me if I'm wrong on that. Another run of the GFS and another solution completely different from the last. 1006mb in the mouth of the MS @ 96HR. Looks like it's going to run inland this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Yeah -- maybe the DGEX loaned it a few bags of whatever it was smoking .... Also, the S/w off the Pacifc NW coast is stronger and faster.... Lost of moisture @99 streaming into LA and AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 At 96, if I had to guess someone will get creamed but it wont be me. Lookslike more northern stream energy dropping in. My guess E TN/W NC/S VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 It's been said, but that's a LOT of moisture developing as shown. I do notice the nice low traversing the lakes region and the extremely weak high pressure. Not exactly a very good look there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 this run actually looks promising if it doesnt cut inland too much Good run for western TN @108 low looks like it's tracking through southern GA(?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 1001mb through south/central AL @ 102HR. Tons of QPF. Another wild run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 TN gets slammed on this run as well as the MA and VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The slp is well inland. This will not be the solution FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.