packbacker Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Good question...I really don't know how the euro tallies up the total. At hr 24 it shows .25 over all of NC and then at hr 30 it shows .25 from the middle of NC east. There is still some real light stuff at hr 36 from RDU east. Shows 0.41" from 0z to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Wundermaps look like they are showing 1-2" across most of NC north of 85. There's a higher splotch of 2-3" somewhere close to INT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 For Tricites...Roughly 0.58" QPF with 850's below zero. Surface 32-33.5. Packer, thanks for putting that up there for us. I dumped my Accuweather account last winter so I don't have acces to pay numbers for the Euro. Sounds like a decent chance at something frozen accumulating. Well, good luck to everyone tomorrow. Time to go to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 Wundermaps look like they are showing 1-2" across most of NC north of 85. There's a higher splotch of 2-3" somewhere close to INT. Those maps might be misleading in that I think they are only 3 hour totals, could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockyTop 1985 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 For Tricites...Roughly 0.58" QPF with 850's below zero. Surface 32-33.5. Thanks..I was worried that the heaviest axis if precip would shift too far east, but it sounds like we should still see some decent snow from the deform band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Those maps might be misleading in that I think they are only 3 hour totals, could be wrong though. Yeah the totals should be a rather large swath of 4-5. It comes and goes in a hurry though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I'm relatively surprised the NWS hasn't been jumping on this event more in the last 6-12 hours. If anything, the trends look even better for those that are in North Carolina for measurable snowfall. Of course the best locations are going to be the ares with higher elevation, and I am continuing to look towards Asheville and the Smokey Mountains for the highest accumulations. However, the last 00z GFS/NAM runs looks very favorable for a 3-6 hour period of heavy snowfall eastward into the piedmont. Here it will likely be more difficult to get accumulating snowfall, but with heavy enough rates, I think 1-3 inches looks very possible across most of the northern third of North Carolina. Those looking for a more significant event chances are we will just run out of time, as this storm should be moving relatively quickly. I don't have enough time to go into a full discussion like last night, but again the key is the track of the 850 hPa low. Both the GFS and NAM have shifted the track of this feature in their latest model runs and we will have to see if the ECMWF follows suit. EDIT: looks like the ECMWF is a huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Shows 0.41" from 0z to 6z. If it's spread out fairly evenly I don't think that will get the job done. Assuming an 8 to 1 ratio, which I think is generous at the temps we are expecting, a 1/2 inch an hour snow rate won't overcome the warm ground temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Just as an FYI, the wundermaps snow algo...it's been both grossly over and under on the storms up here this winter. If you have the QPF down there, I think you do very well and i wouldn't worry about those maps. You guys are going to see a lot of precip very quickly....looking forward to the reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I'm relatively surprised the NWS hasn't been jumping on this event more in the last 6-12 hours. If anything, the trends look even better for those that are in North Carolina for measurable snowfall. Of course the best locations are going to be the ares with higher elevation, and I am continuing to look towards Asheville and the Smokey Mountains for the highest accumulations. However, the last 00z GFS/NAM runs looks very favorable for a 3-6 hour period of heavy snowfall eastward into the piedmont. Here it will likely be more difficult to get accumulating snowfall, but with heavy enough rates, I think 1-3 inches looks very possible across most of the northern third of North Carolina. Those looking for a more significant event chances are we will just run out of time, as this storm should be moving relatively quickly. I don't have enough time to go into a full discussion like last night, but again the key is the track of the 850 hPa low. Both the GFS and NAM have shifted the track of this feature in their latest model runs and we will have to see if the ECMWF follows suit. EDIT: looks like the ECMWF is a huge hit. Not sure if it was your post earlier that was suggesting the south trend that I agreed with...but I agree with you here too and thank you for the earlier macro discussion on the main thread. Looks like NC is in for one of the biggest east coast storms of the winter. I wouldn't be surprised to see fairly widespread 4-6" amounts and someone may touch 8 in the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Just as an FYI, the wundermaps snow algo...it's been both grossly over and under on the storms up here this winter. If you have the QPF down there, I think you do very well and i wouldn't worry about those maps. You guys are going to see a lot of precip very quickly....looking forward to the reports. Thanks Messenger. In these types of storms seems like someone always gets crushed. It will be fun to hear everyones take on what they are getting tomorrow.We are under a WSW from noon though evening for 3-6 inches but i think we could do a bit better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Not sure if it was your post earlier that was suggesting the south trend that I agreed with...but I agree with you here too and thank you for the earlier macro discussion on the main thread. Looks like NC is in for one of the biggest east coast storms of the winter. I wouldn't be surprised to see fairly widespread 4-6" amounts and someone may touch 8 in the higher elevations. I'm working on a late night map right now, but my general thoughts from yesterday remain. The WNC mountains are going to get slammed, although now it looks like the Foothills and Piedmont get into some nice action as well, although amounts will be tempered by the warmth of the boundary layer. There is pretty high potential of 1-2" per hour rates as the deformation band swings through though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I'm working on a late night map right now, but my general thoughts from yesterday remain. The WNC mountains are going to get slammed, although now it looks like the Foothills and Piedmont get into some nice action as well, although amounts will be tempered by the warmth of the boundary layer. There is pretty high potential of 1-2" per hour rates as the deformation band swings through though. WNC getting slammed is music to my ears! Thinking the same thing about this storm the way it is trending and the way our temps have already fallen to 42 degrees here were i am and still falling slowly. Things will be fun for many tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 850mb low track on the HIRES NMM matches well with the Euro...taking it just south of Charlotte to Hatteras. Sexy 16-18 inch totals showing on the NMM model output NW of Raleigh via heavy banding on the simulated radar. I'm camped out in the mountains at the in-laws at 3,540 ft on a ridge east of Burnsville, NC....so, we'll see how it goes here tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Thanks Messenger. In these types of storms seems like someone always gets crushed. It will be fun to hear everyones take on what they are getting tomorrow.We are under a WSW from noon though evening for 3-6 inches but i think we could do a bit better than that. Pretty much every event up here since the October snowstorm....has followed the same pattern. The euro is most conservative...about a day out the other models correct and then when they do the euro corrects flatter. Puts all of you in a good position. The snowfall maps haven't been great. In less dynamic situtaions they've been too fast. situations like this too slow. I'm pretty excited for all of you, last time I posted on your forum was a couple of years ago in kind of a similar deal but I think it was the NAM leading the way on that one. Was a system developing off the outer banks that dumped good snows. Hoping for the best, my uncle has the sleds ready for the nephews. I'm working on a late night map right now, but my general thoughts from yesterday remain. The WNC mountains are going to get slammed, although now it looks like the Foothills and Piedmont get into some nice action as well, although amounts will be tempered by the warmth of the boundary layer. There is pretty high potential of 1-2" per hour rates as the deformation band swings through though. It was actually WeatherNC that mentioned the southward correction was on the table. I agreed at the time...follows this winters pattern. You nailed all the options in the general thread. I'd agree on what you're saying. I hope accumulations can match the intensity. We had some issues a week ago up here where 1/3 to .4 mile visibility snow only managed 1.5 to 2" in borderline temps. The heavier bands were very transient and the low much further away. I don't think you guys will have that problem. 2-4/3-6 seem very reasonable and I'd think someone gets a factor higher than that in the hills. I just caught your macro tonight, that was awesome and I really appreciate it. Wish I saw it earlier. Thanks Phil. I know how much time it takes to do the graphics...like I said thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 WOW, updated snow forecast map from GSP is downright depressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Going to be painful to watch unfold from here tomorrow night unfortunately, RDU likely to switch over before super while we watch that transition line creep slowly east. Still unsure even at this late stage it will get to PGV before midnight, if for anything meaningful at all. Could be a case where RWI sees 1-3 fall and we get skunked with a dwindling 1-2 hr period, who knows. If I lived in Hillsborough, Roxsboro to Oxford would be feeling pretty good ATM, Iso that's you. Expect several reports of thunder from up that way, quick heavy hit, 2-3 hrs of concrete, wet pancakes sticking together giving the appearance of white dinner plates raining down from above. Enjoy!!! Long day/night ahead, I am out guys. Could not have asked for a better trend in the home stretch, keep it close and maybe we have a chance for a win on the last drive. Not surprised, we saw this last Fri, guidance went crazy, and it trended back towards that original solution. Unsure why this is the case, but another classic example it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Here is my final call... I've extended the 1-3" line further south into areas like Raleigh, and I've enlarged the 6-10 inch zone into upslope areas immediately to the east of Boone, NC. Should be a fun storm to watch! The high resolution model guidence opens the change that these amounts could be conservative in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain of NC, but I'd rather play in on the safe side considering the BL issues. However, if this storm bombs out like the NMM suggests, then it could be a much different outcome for folks Raleigh east beyond 00z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I'm working on a late night map right now, but my general thoughts from yesterday remain. The WNC mountains are going to get slammed, although now it looks like the Foothills and Piedmont get into some nice action as well, although amounts will be tempered by the warmth of the boundary layer. There is pretty high potential of 1-2" per hour rates as the deformation band swings through though. Phil, thank you for all the time, hardwork & effort you put in for us. You was the first to say this system would stay south, and you were right on point. Thank you for all you do, it is greatly appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Looks more than reasonable. Again...thanks for sharing. No problem... looks like many of you will end up with a more significant snowstorm than Albany has received all winter Honestly I'm having fun watching things verify so much further south than the GFS had things a couple of days ago. It shows you just how difficult this pattern was to identifying, and the phasing of the various shortwaves has been the key to understanding this uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Here is my final call... I've extended the 1-3" line further south into areas like Raleigh, and I've enlarged the 6-10 inch zone into upslope areas immediately to the east of Boone, NC. Should be a fun storm to watch! The high resolution model guidence opens the change that these amounts could be conservative in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain of NC, but I'd rather play in on the safe side considering the BL issues. However, if this storm bombs out like the NMM suggests, then it could be a much different outcome for folks Raleigh east beyond 00z tomorrow. Great map Phil....I see I'm just on the edge of a dusting to an inch....either way, this has been an exciting storm to watch unfold and I've learned a lot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 No problem... looks like many of you will end up with a more significant snowstorm than Albany has received all winter HA...I'm on Cape Cod...this would be a top 5 snowstorm for the last few years! I'm like you, weather anywhere fascinates me. I'm pumped for my cousins..I think I said nephews earlier..2nd marriage they're young enough to be nephews. Been awhile for them. Lived in Philly for awhile, family in Baltimore and NC. I enjoy watching the weather anywhere and I know major storms are few and far between down in that region, very happy for them. It takes a lot of time to do what you did this week, especially as you're not likely to have been effected by the storm. It's greatly appreciated. I tried to send you a PM but you're maxed out right now. Thanks, and best of luck with the grad program. I hope to read many more of your detailed postings...good or bad (snow-wise I mean) on this site. I'll enjoy the reports Sunday as much as I would if they were from up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Thanks Phil for taking the time and creating a map. My area looks good for 3-6 and maybe more depending on elevation. Should be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCTechster Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 NWS Raleigh just increased forecasted snow totals for the Triad to half inch for the day and 1-3 inches additional overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCTechster Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 last forecast discussion says no winter storm watch warranted, most probable a winter weather advisory will be needed in NC for all areas north of 64...but a 50 mile track shift could bring warning criteria snow to the 85 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCTechster Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 the forecaster acts like he cant believe its actually going to do anything....and thats its safe not to say anything. Not even a mention in the hazardous weather outlook or a special weather statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 NWS Raleigh just increased forecasted snow totals for the Triad to half inch for the day and 1-3 inches additional overnight last forecast discussion says no winter storm watch warranted, most probable a winter weather advisory will be needed in NC for all areas north of 64...but a 50 mile track shift could bring warning criteria snow to the 85 corridor this was from yesterday (3:30pm Saturday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCTechster Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 this is the 1250am discussion, where he only touched on the specifics and left the old discussion as is. I'm guessing they are still working on the forecast. COMPLICATED PTYPE/ACCUMULATION FORECAST. THE SYNOPTIC REGIME IS CLOSER TO A MILLER TYPE `A` SETUP...WHICH SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A NARROW RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION LINE WHICH WILL PROGRESS S/SE THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA ONCE THE H85 TRACKS EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 00-03Z AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEGINS. DESPITE GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...SOME UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS W/REGARD TO THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE(S) AND THE SUBSEQUENT TIMING/TRACK OF THE SURFACE/H85 LOW. SMALL CHANGES IN THE TIMING OR TRACK OF THESE FEATURES COULD HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE RAIN->SNOW CHANGEOVER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN CENTRAL NC. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE H85 LOW WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. THIS EQUATES TO NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER BETWEEN 00-09Z OR 03-09Z MONDAY. SO...ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85 WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE 1" (PERHAPS 1-2") OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. ALTHOUGH ANTECEDENT GROUND CONDITIONS ARE VERY WARM...GIVEN THAT IT WILL BE NIGHT AND THAT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT...FEEL THAT ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS PRECIPITATION IS MODERATE AND PERSISTENT (2-4 HRS) IN THE PRESENCE OF THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. FROM HWY 64 TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR (INCLUDING RALEIGH)...A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW APPEARS LIKELY BUT THE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IS MORE IN DOUBT SINCE IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR THE H85 WARM NOSE TO ERODE. SOUTH OF HWY 64...IT WILL TAKE EVEN LONGER FOR THE H85 WARM-NOSE TO ERODE AND FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DRIER MID-LEVELS...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF SNOW...ASSUMING SFC TEMPS CAN WETBULB BELOW FREEZING PRIOR TO PRECIPITATION ENDING. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA TO BE IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VA...AND A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED. FEEL THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVING SAID THAT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR MESOSCALE BANDING AND ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ONLY 50-100 MILES NORTH IN SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VA...AND A 50 MILE DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK OF H85 LOW COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC...AND A POTENTIAL FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 If anyone cares the 06z NAM comes in drier and more of it seems to fall as rain in the Triangle/Triad than 0z. Temps seem to drop at about the same time as compared to the 0z so I'm assuming the precip moves through earlier but I'm too tired to look at any longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 If anyone cares the 06z NAM comes in drier and more of it seems to fall as rain in the Triangle/Triad than 0z. Temps seem to drop at about the same time as compared to the 0z so I'm assuming the precip moves through earlier but I'm too tired to look at any longer. NAM hasn't exactly been trying to make us happy. Haven't the other models gone the other way (more favorable)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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