Tacoma Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 this storm still trending south i too agree all nc could see a big snow storm with this track where as the further north into va amounts will be less with the southward trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Anyone else notice a chunk of north-east VA just got removed from winter weather products altogether? hmmmm Liking these trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 4km NAM Totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 anyone checkout how far south the latest ruc is with the slp lol? it looks almost like the classic NC snow track now. Hey Brandon, is this going to make any difference considering we are not depending on that to bring us moisture? However does it allow it to crawl up the coast and enhance precip once that second energy phases? Or will that low still go out to sea? Just wondering how this will effect us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Well the big differences in the models is the non phase of the northern energy...if you see the 18z NAM has a full phase at 21z tomorrow and the RUC is not even close, hundreds of miles away. I think we need that phase for higher precip totals, but doesn't matter now as it looks like it won't phase until to late... 18z NAM 2z RUC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 00z NAM gives gso 9.2" after the changeover between 1-3pm. Heavy snow with 1/10" visibility @ 5pm. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 what happens when the slp trends south of SAV? towards JAX, I asked this yesterday If you have the cold air.., the snow trends Southward also. Already, the NAM maps are acknowledging snow in the tip top counties. In fact, heading through Florence towards the coast. Now, don't bank on that.. but that's what already shows based on 0z NAM. In fact in Bufit KCAE sees a period of flurries but if you look at it closer, it's probably drizzle. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 ruc is further south which I would think is a good thing For us but is that going to give us less precip. I don't know what to hope for now LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 00z NAM gives gso 9.2" after the changeover between 1-3pm. Heavy snow with 1/10" visibility @ 5pm. TW LOL, that would be pure awesomeness. It would strike without warning early in the afternoon and then my parents wouldn't let me drive back to Raleigh in the snow, so I'd get to experience all the fun and games here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 GFS has LP in the FL panhandle at hour 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 LOL, that would be pure awesomeness. It would strike without warning early in the afternoon and then my parents wouldn't let me drive back to Raleigh in the snow, so I'd get to experience all the fun and games here. You still got that 1/4 mile sledding run? Might be good Monday morning and maybe Tuesday morning. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Already GFS a good bit colder @15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 GFS has LP in the FL panhandle at hour 6. normally the perfect track for nc snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 HKY might be the winner on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The Northern Piedmont gets SLAMMED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 VA is gonna hate this run...keep on moving it south baby...daddy needs an inch or two for his backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 HKY might be the winner on this run. Let's bank it! If this trend continues, we might be looking at Charlotte or Columbia as the sweet spot. This time last night, I believe that the NC/VA border up to Roanoke was the big winner. 24 hours has produced a huge shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 VA is gonna hate this run...keep on moving it south baby...daddy needs an inch or two for his backyard Yeah, if you're north of a line from Martinsville to Danville, you aren't getting more than 3" or so, per the GFS. The Wyethville and southern WVA area still does okay, but central VA is hung out to dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Surface low speeds up vs. 18z -- I guess indicative of the lack of phasing to slow it down, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntjr Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The colder air is just starting to show up on an E-W line across Central Va. and WVa.- all the obs. stations in Northern WVa. over to NOVA and Maryland are all reporting a decent northerly component to the wind flow- dewpoints are starting to finally come down as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 This map show none for Wierdmann according to this map, LOL I don't believe in Karma, but maybe it does exist in small quantities. For someone to get sore at other people getting snow he ought to move to a location where he can see snow more often since he's his own boss and all. I still think Mt. Leconte and Clingman's Dome will fair very well from this. Point forecast for Mt. Leconte (at 6500 ft) http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=35.65311179854966&lon=-83.43807220458984&site=mrx&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text The point forecast is actually about 10F warmer than what is typically up there. I've been up there enough times to verify this is the case. Last Saturday for example the temperature at noon was forecasted there to be around 15F. It was actually 5F and I was up there to verify it. The point forecast here didn't have the summit going below zero, but it bottomed out at -4F. I wouldn't be surprised if they got close to a foot from this. I wish I had Monday-Tuesday off to go up there tomorrow and camp out in the shelter to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I can't get the soundings to pull up for RDU at hr 21 but hr 24 is all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 This reminds me of Jan 2002, except it's happening to northern VA. That was as painful weather experience as you can have, still the NAM shows Richmond with almost 5" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The GFS does still keep the majority of snow right along the border: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 I think we lost the deform band on both the models tonight. GFS has very little qpf in RDU after 0Z. So we get a colder system to start but lose the back end. Either way, looks goodfor the NW piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The trend tonight appears to be no phase or a very late phase w/ the northern energy. That trend continues on the 0z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I can't get the soundings to pull up for RDU at hr 21 but hr 24 is all snow. Well, I think I would trust the NAM's soundings over the GFS although they do look awfully close. The precip totals look close too. Per the following the NAM shows 4"+ for RDU... I would be happy with half that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 We have some clowns for mets here in Hampton roads. They just posted this update. I legit have no clue what model they are looking at. There are going to be some confused people tomorrow... Let's keep this snow in the south mid atl. The guys up in dc are gonna start diving, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I think we lost the deform band on both the models tonight. GFS has very little qpf in RDU after 0Z. So we get a colder system to start but lose the back end. Either way, looks goodfor the NW piedmont. I think that has to do w/ the no phasing of the northern energy. Maybe a red tagger and confirm or deny this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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