superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Totals look less for Wake County than the earlier run, though. If this run actually developed, I think RDU would get a decent thump. Of course, I doubt the setup will be this good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Darn I just wish this would happen about 200 miles to the SW so folks here in SC and down in GA could join in the fun. Hopefully this works out for the NC crowd though. Thank you, sir! I've now gotten 3/4's of an inch and the heaviest, and steadiest is falling now. If you guys can convert this to white delight, then you'll be rockin' T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 WOW great run for I-40 North and quite a few other folks farther south. I really dont have all that much knowledge in weather but I love to follow the models and I really just like to soak up all this great wisdom from people on this forum.(thanks to everyone).But how is Blacksburg and Raleigh not issuing a advisory or warning in this area.The local mets are still going with >1 in for the whole event and saying it will be mostly rain.A lot of people could be harmed by them not taking any action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I know you guys are excited - but the nam went crazy warm in tennessee on this run. It also lost a ton of qpf, which is probably part of the reason temps are much higher. NAM was showing highs in the mid 30s in Nashville for the last 5 runs or so. Now our high tomorrow is nearing 50 degrees. Maybe its a model hiccup - if its not, then I'd suggest not putting your hopes for NC snow on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 WHat happens on the other side of the mountains has no baring on NC with the cold air drainage from the north. I know you guys are excited - but the nam went crazy warm in tennessee on this run. It also lost a ton of qpf, which is probably part of the reason temps are much higher. NAM was showing highs in the mid 30s in Nashville for the last 5 runs or so. Now our high tomorrow is nearing 50 degrees. Maybe its a model hiccup - if its not, then I'd suggest not putting your hopes for NC snow on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 There's way less precip this run it seems...big winners and losers. Precip over NC is definitely not less. Yes, as is often the case, some people will get very little snow while not far away may get a good amount. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Well one problem on the NAM is the northern stream energy doesn't phase in time, compare to 18z...it's tough situation as if it phases it will get pulled north, but if without the phase, not as cold and less precip.... 0z - no phase 18z - full phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 We're within 24 hours of a warning criteria event (potential), and under the new criteria rules at that. Will Blacksburg / RDU really wait until Dr No runs later tonight to issue? They have to get something out for the 11pm news cycle, no? I would not want to be in the NWS RAH forecast chair tonight. Tough call all the way around I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I know you guys are excited - but the nam went crazy warm in tennessee on this run. Now our high tomorrow is nearing 50 Midnight highs perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCMET Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Have you seen the secondary vort max that moves through? It doesn't look nearly as concentrated...looks almost strung out instead of in a ball-like shape that we saw earlier...maybe that could be it? I mean, in terms of magnitude, it looks the same but as far as organization, it is not shaped the same. Less organized vorticity leads to less defined deformation band. Edit: Also, as someone else noted above, it looks like it phases a little late. One thing and not sure why yet, but the nam sim radar does not show the definition we saw earlier with the backside band as we did earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Wow -- Shelby sounding at 24 hours better than I thought -- 1.1 at the surface, but below zero the rest of the way -- no warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I'll Take whatever is offered up to us, seeing how this is the 1st storm of the 2012 season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Was just looking at it now. Definitely a difference there. Something to keep an eye on, but its not surprising given the complex interactions at play here. Have you seen the secondary vort max that moves through? It doesn't look nearly as concentrated...looks almost strung out instead of in a ball-like shape that we saw earlier...maybe that could be it? I mean, in terms of magnitude, it looks the same but as far as organization, it is not shaped the same. Less organized vorticity leads to less defined deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 That is great news Skip. I Assume KFQD is about the same... Wow -- Shelby sounding at 24 hours better than I thought -- 1.1 at the surface, but below zero the rest of the way -- no warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I would not want to be in the NWS RAH forecast chair tonight. Tough call all the way around I think. WWA for Sunday north of highway 64. Changing situation will watch, blah, blah. Stay tuned to NOAA radio for updates...blah, blah, blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Yeah -- .9 (I think that's about 33.5). Want to find the exact mm during that span, but looks like about .3. Might squeeze an inch ouf of that .... That is great news Skip. I Assume KFQD is about the same... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Have you seen the secondary vort max that moves through? It doesn't look nearly as concentrated...looks almost strung out instead of in a ball-like shape that we saw earlier...maybe that could be it? I mean, in terms of magnitude, it looks the same but as far as organization, it is not shaped the same. Less organized vorticity leads to less defined deformation band. Edit: Also, as someone else noted above, it looks like it phases a little late. If we could get a perfect timed phase than central NC and CLT could get into some good snow, we see what happens with a late phase and with an early phase it jackpots NVA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Any further south and the Upstate could get into it. Weird for a storm to move south. I bet you the Washington people are mad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 This is likely a fine line between the separation ncmet, you want enough so as to not draw the system and banding north, but also close enough that it has a chance to really pull the moisture back from the coastal. To me this looks like a best case scenario as depicted currently. Unsure if I would be worried about the northern stream vort being less organized, if anything, it has trended stronger and towards less separation over the past 72. 160kt jet core coming through the upstate of sc, likely taking this northern parcel off just south of ilm, very favorable for a heavy axis of precip, likely convective, just to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 At least with regards to the both of the vortexes, the 0z NAM at 18 hours is almost a carbon copy of the 1Z RUC at 17 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Here is a crude map i just made..just for WNC its what i know best.. now im sure there will be some snow in the smokies as well but its highly elevation dependent. my amounts may be too high for the northern foothills we shall see.. Well i dont know how to make my pic larger sorry guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 another view of the NAM's output: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 anyone checkout how far south the latest ruc is with the slp lol? it looks almost like the classic NC snow track now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Here is a crude map i just made..just for WNC its what i know best.. now im sure there will be some snow in the smokies as well but its highly elevation dependent. my amounts may be too high for the northern foothills we shall see.. Hard for these eyes to read your map. Is that 4-8" in the red? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 anyone checkout how far south the latest ruc is with the slp lol? it looks almost like the classic NC snow track now. Dude, we just need everything to lock down on the latest NAM. Still concerned about the cold air. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 anyone checkout how far south the latest ruc is with the slp lol? it looks almost like the classic NC snow track now. At 13 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I'll try better this time... The north engery looks to miss the phase on the lastest ruc? But, that lp is further south !! anyone checkout how far south the latest ruc is with the slp lol? it looks almost like the classic NC snow track now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Dude, we just need everything to lock down on the latest NAM. Still concerned about the cold air. TW The RUC and NAM just did two big shifts. This system is knocking on our door already, and it's hard to believe there's so many swings. The RUC tracks this thing pretty far South.. it's like the South trend won't stop. The Euro tonight will be a great indicator. If the GFS shifts south/colder then we can bet the Euro will do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Hard for these eyes to read your map. Is that 4-8" in the red? Yes thats 4-8, i think the mtns north of asheville and eastern buncombe is more likely to get more snow this time. The city and southern Buncombe will most likely get less. I would say Asheville has a good shot of 2 inches though if the temps are right. Black mtn should get 3-4.and more above 3000 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 anyone checkout how far south the latest ruc is with the slp lol? it looks almost like the classic NC snow track now. Pretty amazing differences... 23z run of the RUC.... 2z run of the RUC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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