Marion_NC_WX Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 weaker slp would mean less WA and less of a warm nose with this being further south and RDU profiles have no warm nose at 21z. in fact its isothermal near 0C Yep...I was about to say KMRN has no warm nose at 21z...a big change from previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 No warm nose at 00z Monday either. Probably sleet Zr or drizzle with saturation not there yet in snow growth zone. Looks like we have the beginning of a phase at hr 21...Heavy precip in all of NC but 850's aren't there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Lol, @24 already 4-6" have fallen in the Triad. What is this? 4 runs in a row? Yeahh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 haha if we can keep this up I might see something out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 What a nice max in NNC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 good thumping for western half of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 NAM shows RDU with a snow sounding at 21z tomorrow (4pm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Not saying this is actually going to happen but if the 0z NAM is correct, we may have one of heck of a snow along I-40 and north in North Carolina. The timing would indicate that snow could really break out along the escarpment and spread east...this could be a rare occasion where Asheville gets a relative lull but Hickory to GSO to just north of RDU could pile up. This is an interesting run to say the least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 One bad thing about this run is SFC temps aren't nearly as cold as the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 At first glance looks like a great run for NE TN and much of E TN at that. Huge shift for so late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 NAM shows RDU with a snow sounding at 21z tomorrow (4pm) What a difference a run makes for you guys. Just wow, this thing has been trending better and better for the RDU area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Dont rely on the 2m temp line on the model Look at soundings. One bad thing about this run is SFC temps aren't nearly as cold as the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Good post Dan! Heading up 221 if so tomorrow Not saying this is actually going to happen but if the 0z NAM is correct, we may have one of heck of a snow along I-40 and north in North Carolina. The timing would indicate that snow could really break out along the escarpment and spread east...this could be a rare occasion where Asheville gets a relative lull but Hickory to GSO to just north of RDU could pile up. This is an interesting run to say the least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Once again, it's looking pretty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Posted on Andy Wood's Facebook page http://www.facebook.com/#!/awood11 "The warm ground temperature argument is drastically overplayed during the winter, especially when heavy precipitation and snowfall rates are likely. Heavy and consistent snow rates trump the entire "soil is too warm" argument. I have seen numerous times (in TN, MS, GA and SC) where 50-degree soil temperatures and (60-degree air the day before) was overcome in the first 30 minutes by consistent moderate-heavy snow. The key is a consistent rate of snow. If inconsistent and only moderate snow at times, warm ground temps will overwhelm snow rates. This is an intense, dynamic system capable of manufacture it's own cold air as precipitation rates dictate how much cold is pulled from the upper-levels." This is exactly why I don't get the low forecast totals when the models show more. The NAM shows 5 to 7 inches for Wake County earlier and the models keep trending for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Looks like an I-40 and North special on this run of 00z Nam...ill take it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Nam goes real well with the last comments by robert. Potential to be a great synoptic driven storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 quick examiner update w/ accumulations. although i'm little worried about being too far north after seeing the NAM, but I'll leave it alone. the trend has been south all day. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-charlotte/winter-storm-on-the-way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Dont rely on the 2m temp line on the model Look at soundings. Gotcha. Thanks you've been teaching me for 2 years now. I'm close to an Associates now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 We're within 24 hours of a warning criteria event (potential), and under the new criteria rules at that. Will Blacksburg / RDU really wait until Dr No runs later tonight to issue? They have to get something out for the 11pm news cycle, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Once again, it's looking pretty! I hope by 6z tomorrow this moves 50 miles south..but just my dream. Would love to see if the NAM4 that Brad Panovich is using comes out with the same similar solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Amazing that N VA gets skunked. Roanoke may ever be too far north and get just very light accumulations. Only one run as we all know, but what a trend since 12z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Totals look less for Wake County than the earlier run, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 you got nailed last january Agree, but I don't think there will be much issue with travel unless we get rates over 1"/hour. More concerned with heavy wet snow causing power outages. You got totals and surface temps for the triad? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 One thing and not sure why yet, but the nam sim radar does not show the definition we saw earlier with the backside band as we did earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 SV map which is usually pretty good and conservative shows 1 inch or so for MBY with 2 - 4 north and from RDU north 3 - 6 but it's a bit hard to read TBH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Agree, but I don't think there will be much issue with travel unless we get rates over 1"/hour. More concerned with heavy wet snow causing power outages. You got totals and surface temps for the triad? TW talked to robert earlier he said black ice will be there tomorrow night and monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Totals look less for Wake County than the earlier run, though. There's way less precip this run it seems...big winners and losers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 One thing and not sure why yet, but the nam sim radar does not show the definition we saw earlier with the backside band as we did earlier I liked everything about this run, except for that. But all in all, I will take it, the triad looks to cleanup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I don't know if I remember a shift south like we've seen the past 2 days. Normally it's the opposite. Looks good for us 2 days before a storm then it starts shifting north and ends up being a MA storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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