BIG FROSTY Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Don't click guys unless you want to jump off a cliff. If he pulls that forecast off, I'll be the first to say he's the MAN!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Not awful at all .. GFS.. NAM Whats your problem with these? The sliver above freezing at the surface? Or because it dries about -20C? Snow crystals readily form in -10 to -20C environments. You guys might want to take a look at the soundings. They're awful for the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'd agree. My uncle is in the Winston-Salem area, not far from the mountain with the rope swing and the mile drop...forget the name. Spoke to him a bit ago and I guess they're expecting about 5". Nearest mountain chain to Winston is about hour a way. I live in Winston and locals are not saying much of anything. Of course they are late to the table. Where you are talking about is two -two half hour drive from Winston-Salem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'd agree. My uncle is in the Winston-Salem area, not far from the mountain with the rope swing and the mile drop...forget the name. Spoke to him a bit ago and I guess they're expecting about 5". Only thing I can come up with is Grandfather Mountain's mile high swinging bridge but that's not close to Winston-Salem. Of course being from MA you might think all states are the size of counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Nearest mountain chain to Winston is about hour a way. I live in Winston and locals are not saying much of anything. Of course they are late to the table Yeah it's been awhile, Boone...not far from Grandfather Mountain. He's about an hour west of Winston Salem now. He's expecting 5" not far from some golf course, expects it to change after dawn. Was saying it's still about 55 there now. I imagine it'll get wild up on top of Grandfather Mountain late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Ok. So Michelle Kennedy is predicting up to 1 inch and said "possibly more if the snow machine can get cranked up". Only time will tell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'd agree. My uncle is in the Winston-Salem area, not far from the mountain with the rope swing and the mile drop...forget the name. Spoke to him a bit ago and I guess they're expecting about 5". Are you talking about Grandfather Mtn? That is nowhere near Winston. I'm on the outskirts of Winston in a small town called Kernersville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Not awful at all .. GFS.. NAM Whats your problem with these? The sliver above freezing at the surface? Or because it dries about -20C? Snow crystals readily form in -10 to -20C environments. 36 hours is a little bit late. Most of the precip is gone by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Only thing I can come up with is Grandfather Mountain's mile high swinging bridge but that's not close to Winston-Salem. Of course being from MA you might think all states are the size of counties. LOL yeah that's it. I'm 45 miles from Boston and if you asked I'd say Boston...geography FTL. I haven't been in maybe 10-15 years, been there twice. It's one of those places nobody has ever heard of but is one of the coolest places I've ever been. http://www.grandfather.com/worldofwonder/mile-high-swinging-bridge/ Anyway, here's the reporting station. Pretty sure that pressure reading is off though http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/cronos/?station=GRANDFATHR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 That's right, argue with a guy whose name is in red. Real clever. It's not clever. The models show a significant warm area near the surface and a warm nose aloft that lasts till near the end. It IS a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 OK, then have a look at these. First three soundings are from the 18z NAM run hours 33, 34 and 35 (3,4,5Z). The last image is the 33 hr forecats from the GFS valid 3z. All soundings show snow, plus at 6z and 7z on the NAM still support snow and 6z on GFS as well. 36 hours is a little bit late. Most of the precip is gone by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 OK, then have a look at these. First three soundings are from the 18z NAM run hours 33, 34 and 35 (3,4,5Z). The last image is the 33 hr forecats from the GFS valid 3z. All soundings show snow, plus at 6z and 7z on the NAM still support snow and 6z on GFS as well. The text output from Earl Barker's site and Plymouth don't look as nice, but maybe it's a rounding issue or something else with the data. The charts you post look fine, but I can't help but feel like BL is going to be a MAJOR problem here. It usually is, so it wouldn't surprise me, especially if we are working our way down from 50 w/o serious damming or CAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Anyway, here's the reporting station. Pretty sure that pressure reading is off though http://www.nc-climat...tion=GRANDFATHR It's at 5600 feet above MSL. That is the actual pressure, just not adjusted for sea level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Thats your opinion. Fine, but i doubt your going from 50 to start. Most guidance has you guys near 40 at sunrise. Heck the higher res models have you guys down in the mid 30s at noon. The text output from Earl Barker's site and Plymouth don't look as nice, but maybe it's a rounding issue or something else with the data. The charts you post look fine, but I can't help but feel like BL is going to be a MAJOR problem here. It usually is, so it wouldn't surprise me, especially if we are working our way down from 50 w/o serious damming or CAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Thats your opinion. Fine, but i doubt your going from 50 to start. Most guidance has you guys near 40 at sunrise. Heck the higher res models have you guys down in the mid 30s at noon. What the temp is at the start makes no difference. Widre during the Christmas storm last year I began in the mid 50's on Christmas day itself and ended up with 6.5" of snow with the deform band in Southern Pines the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 36 hours is a little bit late. Most of the precip is gone by then. The sounding he posted shows good saturation still in the growth zone at that time. This would certainly indicate that snow is falling to the surface. Just enjoy the moment and don't be a troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 When you have a jet structure like this.. you are forcing a northerly component to the wind down the east side of the app mountains. With a cold high ridging in from the Lakes, there will be plenty of cold air. The text output from Earl Barker's site and Plymouth don't look as nice, but maybe it's a rounding issue or something else with the data. The charts you post look fine, but I can't help but feel like BL is going to be a MAJOR problem here. It usually is, so it wouldn't surprise me, especially if we are working our way down from 50 w/o serious damming or CAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 What the temp is at the start makes no difference. Widre during the Christmas storm last year I began in the mid 50's on Christmas day itself and ended up with 6.5" of snow with the deform band in Southern Pines the next day. I wouldn't mention the Christmas storm... that's a very sore subject for him. He missed out on half the precip from the coastal and the initial band didn't make it that far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I wouldn't mention the Christmas storm... that's a very sore subject for him. He missed out on half the precip from the coastal and the initial band didn't make it that far east. Also my foot was infected and I had a fever and couldn't sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Also my foot was infected and I had a fever and couldn't sleep. You forgot Mr. Cratchet didnt let you off from work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 This was posted in phils pinned thread on the main board by bluewave. Pretty impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It's at 5600 feet above MSL. That is the actual pressure, just not adjusted for sea level. Yep I saw that after I posted. I looked around but couldn't find a webcam up there. Would be an awesome look in the morning I'm sure. RGEM still looks great at 18z. I hope it sneaks down towards W/S too. Not sure if this has been posted but some of these webcams may be useful to all of you Sunday...some might be really cool: http://www.highcountrywebcams.com/cameras.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Since I am my own boss...you are correct. You are a very negative person, Widre. You seldom have anything positive to say, and whenever you do make claims or statements you rarely back them up with facts or evidence. As a result, you basically troll people to get negative reactions - and because even a broken clock is right twice a day, people remember the few times you were right and ignore the many times you are and have been wrong. EDIT: Besides, if you're so hard up for snow and are your own boss, go and buy a plane ticket to Canada or travel to somewhere where there is snow. I was able to do it this year and if you have money why don't you? I've been here a while and have lurked this forum a long time before that. You are sarcastic and negative and aren't helpful. All you do is stir up trouble and controversy. At least I knew I was guilty of that back in the day and try to avoid it now so I've learned a thing or two. You haven't. Now this post will probably get deleted since it's off topic and I could get warned or banned for it, but it needed to be said publicly. For everyone else, there's an ignore feature, and I suggest you use it like I have. By the way, Knoxville might get a dusting tomorrow so we'll see. I know my home town of Meridian, MS has gotten about 4" of rain today and it's still coming down hard. They're under flash flood warnings right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 You forgot Mr. Cratchet didnt let you off from work. I'm sorry that was a classic. . . . Widre has a right to be pessimistic for this area, we missed out of the big snows for much of the past 6 years. . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jalba Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Last call from DT. Looks good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I think folks are being very conservative with the accumulation forecasts. I don't see how Wake and Durham counties could get just a trace to an inch when the models have all been trending for more and more as the day has gone alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Last call from DT. Looks good! Wow. If only. Got me in the East TN Valley in the 2 to 4 inch. Just don't see it happening but one can hope . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Like DT's map. Don't like JB's. Bottom line is the weather does not follow JB or the models and it will be interesting to see what plays out. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 That 4 to 8 is going to go further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I think folks are being very conservative with the accumulation forecasts. I don't see how Wake and Durham counties could get just a trace to an inch when the models have all been trending for more and more as the day has gone alone. I think just the opposite. With wet grounds and warm surface temps, this just doesn't look to be a good set up. I expect nothing more than a cold rain honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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