WeatherNC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 18z GFS looks further south and slower with that second piece of energy...starts to phase @21 I have been out most of the day (wife's b-day) and not really had a chance to look at the 12z runs, only the 18z nam/rgem and this is what I am seeing. The storm system coming into the southern plains behind this is trending slightly stronger, sharper in the upper levels. That allows for this northern stream piece to dig further south in response, hence the southern shift. Also there does not appear to be as much separation between it and the southern energy as we were seeing yesterday, hence a coastal that is not as strung out, even if it is a little weaker. Given that, the window is open for a further south correction as compared to north. The table is almost set, and we are talking maybe another 50 miles or so, but this has more room to come south at this point than north, at-least imo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Is this the deform band setting up? It moves slight NE just below RDU in the next frame.. Next frame.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I have been out most of the day (wife's b-day) and not really had a chance to look at the 12z runs, only the 18z nam/rgem and this is what I am seeing. The storm system coming into the southern plains behind this is trending slightly stronger, sharper in the upper levels. That allows for this northern stream piece to dig further south in response, hence the southern shift. Also there does not appear to be as much separation between it and the southern energy as we were seeing yesterday, hence a coastal that is not as strung out, even if it is a little weaker. Given that, the window is open for a further south correction as compared to north. The table is almost set, and we are talking maybe another 50 miles or so, but this has more room to come south at this point than north, at-least imo... Thanks I hope you are correct that would put me on that line, all I wanna see is a few hours of some snow falling. By the way do we want that backside energy to dig more and phase earlier? Or dig more and phase later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Is this the deform band setting up? It moves slight NE just below RDU in the next frame.. In all honesty, I don't think the GFS has the resolution to resolve the deformation band which is a mesoscale feature that is smaller than the 40km grid spacing of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 WRAL model forecast here: http://www.wral.com/...r/page/9748768/ (click snow accumulation). Wow, 3-6" for the Triad and close to 3" for RDU. BTW, the NAM is a dream and just has to be too good to be true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 still can't believe that all nc mtns will not get in on the snow sunday afternoon. Ya its funny. I am sitting at 3500 feet and because the way the cold air comes in we are out of the loop with snow. I am not quite sure i believe this totally but i have been through a few storms similar to this and we got some snow. Will be interesting to see how this storm rolles through. I think this will be a look out your window instead of looking at the models all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 In all honesty, I don't think the GFS has the resolution to resolve the deformation band which is a mesoscale feature that is smaller than the 40km grid spacing of the GFS. Thanks guess I'm just being a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Wow, 3-6" for the Triad and close to 3" for RDU. BTW, the NAM is a dream and just has to be too good to be true! 1-3 for CLT falling...I can handle watching that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I have been out most of the day (wife's b-day) and not really had a chance to look at the 12z runs, only the 18z nam/rgem and this is what I am seeing. The storm system coming into the southern plains behind this is trending slightly stronger, sharper in the upper levels. That allows for this northern stream piece to dig further south in response, hence the southern shift. Also there does not appear to be as much separation between it and the southern energy as we were seeing yesterday, hence a coastal that is not as strung out, even if it is a little weaker. Given that, the window is open for a further south correction as compared to north. The table is almost set, and we are talking maybe another 50 miles or so, but this has more room to come south at this point than north, at-least imo... Thnaks for the input. Hoipe you are right a more south track would really help us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Ouch. That's for today and all our snow is going to fall on Sunday. Don't worry about that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 That's for today and all our snow is going to fall on Sunday. Don't worry about that map. I thought it looked off. Thanks, Chapel Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Wow, 3-6" for the Triad and close to 3" for RDU. BTW, the NAM is a dream and just has to be too good to be true! Had to post it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Wow, 3-6" for the Triad and close to 3" for RDU. BTW, the NAM is a dream and just has to be too good to be true! Not sure if I believe that from WRAL. Has me near 12inches locally AND 1inch of rain. And shows .75 ice accum. south-west of Newland in the mountains. Seems way overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 You guys might want to take a look at the soundings. They're awful for the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Decided to be brave enough to put out a call map for the event. As always, much can change the outcome of accumulations but I believe this could be a possible look when it's all said and then. May make a final call if it looks like more is possible for most folks. Thoughts: http://gwxmanblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/update-on-upcoming-winter-storm.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Not sure if I believe that from WRAL. Has me near 12inches locally AND 1inch of rain. And shows .75 ice accum. south-west of Newland in the mountains. Seems way overdone. Yeah that has it snowing here from noon on Sunday on. No relationship to the latest NWS forecast. Sunday Night: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after midnight, then gradually ending. Low around 29. North wind between 10 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Brad Panovich just posted an image of the NAM4 snowfall map and it had Charlotte with a half an inch Winston Salem/GSO with 2-3 and RDU with 1.5 inches...of course that's what falls hard to know what will accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Big Joe just publicly updated his forecast. @BigJoeBastardi: updated snow forecast with storm http://pic.twitter.com/3IGcWmnc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Big Joe just publicly updated his forecast. @BigJoeBastardi: updated snow forecast with storm http://pic.twitter.com/3IGcWmnc lol Better tell the NWS with storm warnings down to the NC/VA border that they won't be getting anything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Big Joe just publicly updated his forecast. @BigJoeBastardi: updated snow forecast with storm http://pic.twitter.com/3IGcWmnc Don't click guys unless you want to jump off a cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 You guys might want to take a look at the soundings. They're awful for the Triangle. It shows us switching over to something frozen by 1z on Monday, Chapel hill might 0z Monday. Question is how much precip do we have to work with, .1"-2", so hopefully we can squeeze and inch of snow out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Big Joe just publicly updated his forecast. @BigJoeBastardi: updated snow forecast with storm http://pic.twitter.com/3IGcWmnc I'm not sure that is even close to reflecting the ideas put forth by the models today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'm not sure that is even close to reflecting the ideas put forth by the models today. That's as terrible as the rest of his forecasts have ever been for north carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 A must watch from Brad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Brad P updated his blog, using mainly the NAM 4 to show the system's evolution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It shows us switching over to something frozen by 1z on Monday, Chapel hill might 0z Monday. Question is how much precip do we have to work with, .1"-2", so hopefully we can squeeze and inch of snow out of it. It is interesting, the partial thickness nomograms show we are freezing rain/sleet by mid to late afternoon, but the models keep surface temps around 34-36. I would expect a transition to sleet by around 7pm, and then about a 3-5 hour period of light snow where we could ring up an inch or so ending as freezing drizzle snow grains after midnight. That is the best guess right for RDU proper. There could be a mesoscale band of intense snow associated with the deformation band as the coastal cranks and the 850mb low intensifies. But my personal opinion is that the best area for that will be north of the Triangle, probably Roxboro to Roanoke Rapids area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I have been out most of the day (wife's b-day) and not really had a chance to look at the 12z runs, only the 18z nam/rgem and this is what I am seeing. The storm system coming into the southern plains behind this is trending slightly stronger, sharper in the upper levels. That allows for this northern stream piece to dig further south in response, hence the southern shift. Also there does not appear to be as much separation between it and the southern energy as we were seeing yesterday, hence a coastal that is not as strung out, even if it is a little weaker. Given that, the window is open for a further south correction as compared to north. The table is almost set, and we are talking maybe another 50 miles or so, but this has more room to come south at this point than north, at-least imo... I'd agree. My uncle is in the Winston-Salem area, not far from the mountain with the rope swing and the mile drop...forget the name. Spoke to him a bit ago and I guess they're expecting about 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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