SBUWX23 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Still a nice sounding at 6z at RDU, no question the profile supports snow, but is there enough falling from the sky at this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 LOL just goes to show you how hard the deformation band will be to predict. 18Z NAM has a qpf max over Nash county of over half an inch. Gotta love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Its gone at 33 hr... just like other runs have had the timing.. around 3z changing to snow. I do like the better saturation aloft on the sounding I just looked at for the 33 hr forecast. I agree, hr 33 looks better....Thanks SBU! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Its much improved though from those years past. This is a good run for the RDU area. I just wish it wasn't the nam. It has burnt me several times in years past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 At hour 36, per the NAM SIM radar, the deform band/comma head is over central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 This is a good run for the RDU area. I just wish it wasn't the nam. It has burnt me several times in years past. yeah I definitely think we get a period of sleet maybe a few hours. But this run of the NAm is nice, we get in to some real nice lift by 00z and it contues for a good 6-8 hours it appears. This would likely be a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Hm, there seems a possibility for SC (even the CAE area) to possibly see some token flakes before the moisture pulls out completely tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think it's just going to continue to get better as we get closer. The trends have been better and better with each run. Things would totally have to fall apart now for it to go the other direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Wow, if this northern vort phases in on the backside it's possible this could cutoff over the carolinas. That would really be interesting. Notice the NAM is close here. Looking at the WV loop it is probably even still underdone. This would totally bomb out the coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I dont care what the QPF and sim radar shows. this is a great image with the vort max to our south and winds blowing off it right towards central NC. this would tell me we are in the region of the most intense PVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I just checked the soundings for CLT: Hour 27: Maybe some sleet and rain. Hour 30: Definitely sleet Hour 33: Column is cold enough for all snow but losing RH in the -10C snow growth zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Lets hope the lift is enough for you to get some needles and long columns, which form at -5 to -10 C... I just checked the soundings for CLT: Hour 27: Maybe some sleet and rain. Hour 30: Definitely sleet Hour 33: Column is cold enough for all snow but losing RH in the -10C snow growth zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 18znam through 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 GSP seems to suggests nothing below 3500 feet here. So, it will snow east of here and possibly accumulate, but not at 2200 feet. Weather is odd. MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON- SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS- POLK MOUNTAINS- 311 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE SMOKIES AND BALSAM MOUNTAINS. AN ELEVATION DEPENDENT SNOW ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 4-7 inches in Wake County, per the model of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Wow, if this northern vort phases in on the backside it's possible this could cutoff over the carolinas. That would really be interesting. Notice the NAM is close here. Looking at the WV loop it is probably even still underdone. This would totally bomb out the coastal low. Yep, I like how you think HKY! This is very interesting, it's almost like two storm systems now and the first one is of virtually no consequence to us here in NC. I actually was thinking the same thing regarding this thing cutting off too. Each run makes the phased look over NC stronger and stronger, and subsequently the deformation band continues to look more and more impressive. I think the 2-4" zone may end up in the RDU vicinity if these trends continue. The 18z NAM is likely a slushy couple of inches at RDU. Edit: I'm talking about on the ground too, not just falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Wow, if this northern vort phases in on the backside it's possible this could cutoff over the carolinas. That would really be interesting. Notice the NAM is close here. Looking at the WV loop it is probably even still underdone. This would totally bomb out the coastal low. If that type of scenario were to play out, what would you expect to see back over the Piedmont that's different than what the NAM is currently depicting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 WRAL model forecast here: http://www.wral.com/weather/page/9748768/ (click snow accumulation). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 GSP's snowfall map doesn't look very uniform. If this is true, I would expect winter weather advisories for I40 counties. Any comments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 4-7 inchers in Wake County, per the model of course. Ya know it would be awesome for this thing to really get going Sunday night some of the best totals could end up under wherever that deform band setups up ( if it does of course) over central and even east central NC since it will be dark, and temps most likely at their coldest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 There was a storm some years ago, 02 or 03 that wasn't expected to be much for the NC Piedmont and we had the low "bomb out" and it turned out to be a decent snow. Does anyone remember this, my memory sucks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 There was a storm some years ago, 02 or 03 that wasn't expected to be much for the NC Piedmont and we had the low "bomb out" and it turned out to be a decent snow. Does anyone remember this, my memory sucks! January 2003. Unfortunately, this storm and storm arent related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yeah, that's a rocking run of the nam for p-type issues into much of nc... As others have stated, mixing is going to be a huge issue, look how the 850-700 mb thickness is lagging, classic signal IMO for ip unfortunately. Wish this was a cut and dry rn/sn type of deal, but it is not given a hybrid miller type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 If that type of scenario were to play out, what would you expect to see back over the Piedmont that's different than what the NAM is currently depicting? I'm almost hesitant to type a response to this, but honestly my thoughts are that if it closes off it could be a 6-8" snowfall under the deformation band anywhere it sets up, similar in intensity to the video eyewall posted back a few pages from 3/3/2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 January 2003. Unfortunately, this storm and storm arent related. Maybe the Jan 2-3 2002 snow that was a great hit for most everyone in NC http://www4.ncsu.edu...cases/20020102/ The loop of the event kinda looks like how this might play out actually http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20020102/usrad/usrad.loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Wow...Morristown taking all of the snow away for TRI.....changed the mountains and SWVA to warning, 2"-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'm almost hesitant to type a response to this, but honestly my thoughts are that if it closes off it could be a 6-8" snowfall under the deformation band anywhere it sets up, similar in intensity to the video eyewall posted back a few pages from 3/3/2010. I agree. Not that I matter. Someone is going to get slammed while a few miles away others are dealing with a sloppy mix. I wouldn't be surprised to hear some reports of thunder snow with the most intense part of the deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I thought it was pretty much a done deal on anything wintry in the CAE area, but now I'm not sure sure anymore. GA might not even be out of the chance totally with current trends if they continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Wow...Morristown taking all of the snow away for TRI.....changed the mountains and SWVA to warning, 2"-6" Don't understand it at all. 18z NAM is brutal. .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY... WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IT APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL CUT-OFF A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO OUR AREA. THUS...WHILE POPS WILL BE HIGH TONIGHT FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THIS LOW MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRODUCING STRONG LIFT OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY...AS UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING STRENGTHENS OVER THE CUMBERLAND RANGE. WHILE IT APPEARS THAT THE VERTICAL TEMP PROFILE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER SOUTHWEST VA (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS)...THE NAM AND GFS MODELS REVEAL SOME SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES WITH THE VERTICAL TEMP PROFILE OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...THE NAM MODEL PROFILE IS QUITE A BIT WARMER...ESPECIALLY AT THE 800 MB LAYER...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SLEET BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. WITH MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HIGH PRECIP RATES EXPECTED OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...THINK THAT SOME DYNAMICALLY COOLING COULD CAUSE THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW QUICKER THAN THE MODELS WOULD CURRENTLY SUGGEST. THIS QUICKER CHANGE OVER COULD RESULT IN WARNING-LEVEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. SINCE THIS SCENARIO IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE PLATEAU...BUT WILL UPGRADE TO A WARNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN MOUNTAINS AND START IT EARLIER (AT 12Z). IN THE VALLEYS...WARM GROUND TEMPS FROM THE RECENT WARM WEATHER SHOULD COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS LINGERING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S TO CREATE A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING AS THE MOISTURE EXITS THE REGION. THUS...THINK THAT ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE GREAT TN VALLEY SHOULD BE LIGHT BELOW 2500 FEET MSL. AS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST`S SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. AS FOR TEMPS...NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...AND LOOK REASONABLE. I understand being conservative, and I don't have to take the heat should things go wrong. But they need to educate the public w/ at least a special weather statement. The latest NAM slams NE TN, as does the Euro. Two great models to add support for potential significant accumulations - not a given but a real possibility. But I must say, that warm nose is pain and should be respected. But still, folks need to know the potential. I'm not sure what to think of that map - a warning to nothing in one county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yep, I like how you think HKY! This is very interesting, it's almost like two storm systems now and the first one is of virtually no consequence to us here in NC. I actually was thinking the same thing regarding this thing cutting off too. Each run makes the phased look over NC stronger and stronger, and subsequently the deformation band continues to look more and more impressive. I think the 2-4" zone may end up in the RDU vicinity if these trends continue. The 18z NAM is likely a slushy couple of inches at RDU. Edit: I'm talking about on the ground too, not just falling. Yea, i think the NAM is catching up to the wrf. I'm not sure why they don't just go ahead and replace the NAM with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.