SeVa Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 That Euro is a thing of beauty. It's kind of hard to believe we are going to be dealing with some snow tomorrow. Just insane, it is a balmy 59 here, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 From RAH for rockingham. Nc/Sc border Sunday Night: Rain likely, possibly mixing with snow after 11pm, then gradually ending. Cloudy, with a low around 31. North wind between 13 and 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Is this thing going to start out as rain even in the mtns? I'm not really getting a clear picture of how this will play out. Also what is the time of arrival for WNC rain and or snow wise. TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Anyone think this could be a surprise event like the Jan one last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yea, no real special meaning. It would have sucked if this were a major cad storm and we were relying on that for some ice or something, but in this storm i'm not sure it matters. the main thing is this initial SLP is not going to matter a whole lot. there is going to be a quick jump to the SC coast. the latest WV loop is showing more interactiong b/n the southern vort and northern vort on the backside than the models are depicting. this deformation zone is going to hammer someone. Agreed. Most of the high-res models are suggsting a longer duration of precipitation (from 03z to after 09z) with the upper level energy, and I'm starting to think somewhere in central NC could see accumulating snow from that deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Ok guys my afternoon update. Sorry i havent been on more today, but saturday is family day. I will be on and off the rest of the day. Thanks again for reading. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/winter-storm-set-to-affect-the-southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Ok guys my afternoon update. Sorry i havent been on more today, but saturday is family day. I will be on and off the rest of the day. Thanks again for reading. http://www.examiner....t-the-southeast For whatever reason, the last post was taken down. I'm not trying to be disrespectful. However, after looking at the afternoon model runs I'm just curious to why the snow forecast for TN (all of it) is so low. Are you thinking there are convective feedback issues or is the tap from the GOM going to cut precip rates in the TN Valley. I've thought that myself after reading Hickory's comments. Just want some insight. The warm nose in the TN Valley can always be a problem - I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Just remember that the Euro isn't that special at this range, but that map by DT on the Euro's snowfall totals was very nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Just remember that the Euro isn't that special at this range, but that map by DT on the Euro's snowfall totals was very nice! People keep saying this, but I have my doubts as to whether it's actually true. The Euro is a powerful model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 People keep saying this, but I have my doubts as to whether it's actually true. The Euro is a powerful model. It has been the most consistent w/ its depiction of the upcoming storms. Most other models moved towads the Euro when it was standing alone - but not classified an outlier because, well, it's the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Seems like the forecasts are conservative when compared to the model trends of the system coming further south and colder with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Regarding convection, if the orientation of it remains positively tilted enough, that is when it can enhance downstream QPF. When it races ahead more toward negative tilt, QPF is hindered. In this case though, I don't think it really matters one way or the other. The Gulf convection would likely only rob from the initial rain and likely wouldn't have a ton to do with the dynamic lifting with our secondary disturbance late tomorrow/ tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 People keep saying this, but I have my doubts as to whether it's actually true. The Euro is a powerful model. Agreed, I'll take the Euro at any time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 18z NAM looks weaker and precip shield is a bit further south @ 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 For whatever reason, the last post was taken down. I'm not trying to be disrespectful. However, after looking at the afternoon model runs I'm just curious to why the snow forecast for TN (all of it) is so low. Are you thinking there are convective feedback issues or is the tap from the GOM going to cut precip rates in the TN Valley. I've thought that myself after reading Hickory's comments. Just want some insight. The warm nose in the TN Valley can always be a problem - I agree. No disrespect taken. I could be underdone in TN, especially NE TN. To me I am worried that by the time the cold air comes in the best dynamics will be leaving the area leaving only a brief window for now. I could certainly see more of a 1-3 in those areas of TN where I have dusting to 1inch and locally more around the Tri-Cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 18z NAM is a good bit slower and slightly further south...what we need to watch is that vort coming in from behind for NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 People keep saying this, but I have my doubts as to whether it's actually true. The Euro is a powerful model. This is a common misconception. The reason why the Euro got this wrap, was because back in the day all we had from the Euro was output every 24 hours. The NWS rarely used it because they had very limited output to see from it. Thus they used the Eta ( now nam), AVN (now gfs), etc. The Euro has very good resolution even at short ranges and this model is just as good in the short range as it is in the medium range. Think about it logically. A weather model uses prognostic dynamic equations to predict the state of the atmospherein the future. If you had bad data/results in the early part of this, how would it magically correct itself and get better in the medium range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 No disrespect taken. I could be underdone in TN, especially NE TN. To me I am worried that by the time the cold air comes in the best dynamics will be leaving the area leaving only a brief window for now. I could certainly see more of a 1-3 in those areas of TN where I have dusting to 1inch and locally more around the Tri-Cities. Thanks again, Raleigh. I can definitely see that scenario as I have lived it many times. The RUC's most recent run would support your map as it actually dryslots the eastern TN Valley. The warm nose in the TN Valley is usually underdone by wx models and downsloping is always an issue. Great disco on your website - I always read it when you post the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'm guessing we want that energy on the backside to phase sooner? @24 it's still separate from our southern energy...or do we want it to come in from behind and phase later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Wow congrats GA and SC! Yeah, my first drops a while ago were big, fat puppies...the old style kind of rain...none of these drizzly bits I've had to get used to T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 GSP seems relatively unexcited. (of course, I'm reading this from the perspective of getting probably no more than a dusting) SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PROGGED TO TRACK QUICKLY FROM NRN GA TO THE SE NC COASTAL WATERS BY 00Z MONDAY AND DEEPEN TO AROUND 1000 MB. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE STRONGEST Q CONVERGENCE WILL CROSS THE CWFA SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT AND SHIFT EAST FROM ERN KY/TN TO THE NC MTNS BY EVENING. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FCST SNDGS SHOW PROFILES IN THE NRN MTNS CHANGING FROM RA TO SN FROM LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTN HOURS. THE NAM TRIES TO HOLD ONTO A WARM NOSE...BUT THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY WITHIN A DEFORMATION ZONE. USING A TOP-DOWN APPROACH FAVORING THE GFS PROFILES...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW ACRS THE NRN NC MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE STARTING AROUND 15Z...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING THRU THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A DRY SLOT WILL PUNCH INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA...SO POPS SHUD TAPER OFF. (ALTHOUGH DRIZZLE MAY LINGER THRU THE DAY.) AS FOR ACCUM...TAKING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND USING HPC/S SLR...THE CURRENT WATCH ZONES DO REACH 12-HR WARNING CRITERIA. OUTSIDE OF THOSE AREAS...IT IS HIGHLY ELEVATION-DEPENDENT...WITH THE SW NC MTNS GETTING ONLY ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 5000 FT. ALSO...THE I-40 CORRIDOR MAY GET SOME SNOW ACCUM AS THE LOW EXITS LATE SUN AFTN/EVE. CONFIDENCE SEEMS HIGH ENUF TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...BUT NO HIGH ENUF TO ISSUE ANYTHING OUTSIDE THAT AREA. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR THE REST OF THE MTNS IN THE HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 18z NAM is colder and has more precip in WNC than 18z had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 NAM is colder from what I can tell 2.5in of snow for my location. I ain't complaining Edit: This is a dream run IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 18z NAM is colder and has more precip in WNC than 18z had. The 18z is pretty good for NE TN is appears. The RUC looks very dry FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Warm nose for RDU at hr 30. 850, 800, 750 mb above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The 18z is pretty good for NE TN is appears. The RUC looks very dry FWIW. I wouldn't worry too much about the RUC. Things are coming together nicely for a lot of you down there, very exciting. I hope everyone enjoys the snow and please be sure to post pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Per nam soundings RDU would be all snow at hr 33. I would guess hr 30 would be more of a sleet profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Its gone at 33 hr... just like other runs have had the timing.. around 3z changing to snow. I do like the better saturation aloft on the sounding I just looked at for the 33 hr forecast. Warm nose for RDU at hr 30. 850, 800, 750 mb above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Meh...GSP changed things up for my zone forecast. Now showing predominately rain with a SLIGHT chance of some backside flurries. They (GSP) are pretty spot on, so I guess I can keep my fingers crossed that they are wrong. We are all human eh?? LMAO! EDIT: it looks like the NAM is showing a colder look for the NC Piedmont on the 18z run. I have not looked at soundings, but it looks like more of a chance for prolonged Wintry weather?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 This is a good run for the RDU area. I just wish it wasn't the nam. It has burnt me several times in years past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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