burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Actually, I like it better. It's a bit colder. I'm in the ipad right now so it was hard to tell on 850 temps honestly I'm not really taking any of them to serious rot now I've resolved to ones jburns rules of just knowing its going to be a wait and see. I just want to lookout the window and see flakes flying...appears that will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Does the triad get below freezing as it is snowing? tw Looks like to me, I'm no met 32-34 degree range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Looks like to me, I'm no met 32-34 degree range I was surprised by how soon it is supposed to drop to 34. Sunday: Rain or drizzle. Temperature falling to around 34 by 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think the models are under-doing the precipitation. Look at how much precip is currently falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Does the triad get below freezing as it is snowing? tw Not quite, just below 33F the entire time. RIchmond doesn't even get below freezing. The NAM is colder so not sure which is right on temp profiles. I thought I remember reading that the Euro is fairly accurate with precip forecast but not sure how it does with surface temps. It makes a big difference if it's off by 1-2F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 There's this really strange blob of snow in S Charlotte and Union County on the euro that makes no sense. I wonder if thats some sort of feedback issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think the models are under-doing the precipitation. Look at how much precip is currently falling. I said the same thing in the banter thread. Seems ever since fall when we have precip around here, it is more and lasts longer than forecasted. Also, can remember a couple days last week where it was colder than forecasted because of the precip and clouds coming in earlier. Maybe that could help us out this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think the models are under-doing the precipitation. Look at how much precip is currently falling. That is what brandon was talking about the models could see this as convection robbing and keeping qpf low...if it ends up being enhanced due to convection well look out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 There's this really strange blob of snow in S Charlotte and Union County on the euro that makes no sense. I wonder if thats some sort of feedback issue. Makes sense to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think the models are under-doing the precipitation. Look at how much precip is currently falling. That's composite reflectivity. It always looks big and mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 That's composite reflectivity. It always looks big and mean. And it's not ground truth, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 http://www.erh.noaa....wnmm.12.utc.php Initial blob of precip with the southern s/w doesn't even touch nc on the latest 12z hi-res wrf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 In reference to that national mosaic image posted a few minutes ago I don't see any issue with convection, at least in this early stage off the TX coast. What you don't want is that leading edge racing out ahead of the pos tilted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 That's composite reflectivity. It always looks big and mean. No, it's the base. Go to the individual radar site and click composite and you will see the "big and mean" image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Looking more at the Euro, if it's right, it really looks like points NW of 85/40 could have a nice event, hopefully. 4"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 12z is a little further south. Seems to be picking up on the 2nd shortwave more. Notice the higher precip amounts over far western VA and the blob over N central NC at 33 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 http://www.erh.noaa....wnmm.12.utc.php Initial blob of precip with the southern s/w doesn't even touch nc on the latest 12z hi-res wrf. What does this mean for us in NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Looking more at the Euro, if it's right, it really looks like points NW of 85/40 could have a nice event, hopefully. 4"+ Going frame by frame of the 3-hour accumulation output on WunderMap, it looks like the Triangle is the battleground. Chapel Hill is shown to get 4" or so while RDU gets around 2". A very slight shift in either direction could make or break this for a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 DT's new snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 http://www.erh.noaa....wnmm.12.utc.php Initial blob of precip with the southern s/w doesn't even touch nc on the latest 12z hi-res wrf. Wow congrats GA and SC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 DT's new snow map Did you happen to notice the huge type saying it was not his map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Where is Robert when you need him? After digesting the 12Z model data i think it is safe to say the northern mtns from yancy to watauga will see 4-8 inches with more above 3500 ft. The adjacent northern foothills north of I-40 down to Winston salem and north should see 2-4 inches if the snow can come down heavily enough, deformation band etc... South of there towards charlotte an inch or 2 is possible depending on temps and snowfall rates etc. Thats my call as of now... I might make a map as well later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'm close to winner on the Euro hehe, I suspect like Jeremy said though just some issues with the Euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 What does this mean for us in NC? It means the initial blob of precip doesn't reach us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 water vapor loop http://www.goes.noaa...LOOPS/ecwv.html can someone make this "live' here for me (us)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 water vapor loop http://www.goes.noaa...LOOPS/ecwv.html NWS http://www.nws.noaa.gov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It means the initial blob of precip doesn't reach us. So we get no initial rain to hurt snow accumulations?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It means the initial blob of precip doesn't reach us. thanx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It means the initial blob of precip doesn't reach us. Yea, no real special meaning. It would have sucked if this were a major cad storm and we were relying on that for some ice or something, but in this storm i'm not sure it matters. the main thing is this initial SLP is not going to matter a whole lot. there is going to be a quick jump to the SC coast. the latest WV loop is showing more interactiong b/n the southern vort and northern vort on the backside than the models are depicting. this deformation zone is going to hammer someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 12z is a little further south. Seems to be picking up on the 2nd shortwave more. Notice the higher precip amounts over far western VA and the blob over N central NC at 33 hours. And the south trend continues. I think this is going to be a pretty good event for RDU. At least for northern Wake county and Durham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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