gritsnc Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I know most people on here never rely on TWC, but their map is showing my county with NOTHING (Forsyth and Davidson counties). http://www.weather.c...kend_2012-02-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think you are being a bit unfair here. More snow posts out number less snow posts by at least 20 to 1. While you don't want to hear it his argument was well presented and backed up with his reasoning for feeling that way. I don't see how his post in any way "crapped up" the board. As you say the clown maps may take the ground temps into consideration, but all the posters who are reading QPF and claiming they are going to get X number of inches do not. I would have agreed with you if this wasnt his 3-4 post about the exact same thing, we get it and understand what ground temps means to snow accumulation. The problem is the clown maps take that into account and still come up with the totals they do..this means that his reasoning is also wrong he says stuff like From his post "Regardless of the track the storm takes, the pattern is so progressive that the "heavy" precipitation will not be over any given area for very long. Any snow that is falling at a heavy enough clip to overcome the warm ground temperatures will only last an hour or two at best, This leaves little time for any type of real accumulations. It may snow for six to eight hours after the changeover occurs, but 80% of that snow will not fall heavy enough to add much in the way of accumulations. As you can see in the map above you have an area receiving .60" during a six hour period. The only way those areas in South central VA see anywhere close to 6" of snow from that is if it all falls in a one or two hour time frame and that's not likely." That is making stuff up there is no way to know these kind of details, surface temps will be in the upper 20's around 30 for a lot of places it will not take long for snow to accumulate you might lose a inch or two to melt or compaction during the actual event but I promise you that is 6-8" of snow falls it isnt all going to melt as soon as it hits the ground or barely accumulate to just a inch or two, now if temps were 32-33, its was daytime and snow rates were low then yeah, but its going to be dark, below freezing and with decent rates his argument is wrong. Really this topic really needs its own thread or be moved to banter as it just junks up the this thread..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I know most people on here never rely on TWC, but their map is showing my county with NOTHING (Forsyth and Davidson counties). http://www.weather.c...kend_2012-02-14 If I were making a NC forecast for this storm, God forbid, there would be a huge area of, "a dusting to an inch is possible". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 This is why the models are still having a tough time with everything. From:Stu Ostro's facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Looks like the 12z GFS brings snow 1" snow accumulations as far south and east as Gastonia in the CLT area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 This is what WeatherNC said yesterday about the soil temperature argument: Kind of getting tired with the accum/wet ground/soil temp side bars. Any SN fall maps are based on what falls@ratio, period... Soil temps are in the mid 40's - low 50's, ground is going to be wet, temps likely isothermal and 32-33 w/ concrete. Please stop. The SN outputs use complex algorithms to insight a SN flag, varying ratios, etc. From here on out, <1", 2-4", 4-8", <0" needs to be taken at that, what the model shows as actually falling and not accumulating. Boarder counties in NC see 4" fall, maybe a slushy inch or two Monday morning given the reasons/facts stated above. Traffic is going to increase over the weekend, folks coming in to get a better understanding of what may and will happen, I ask that we keep this thread relevant. Starting tomorrow I will be a little more liberal with the deletes, Iso and QC are already loaded firing at will. Repeat sh!t post offenders will be benched and depending on quality thus far, 5ppd limited for a good while. I have no issue with a couple posts each page to keep the mood light/entertaining, but keep it somewhat relevant... See you for the 0z, later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I know most people on here never rely on TWC, but their map is showing my county with NOTHING (Forsyth and Davidson counties). http://www.weather.c...kend_2012-02-14 That forecast is really bullish for your area. http://www.weather.com/weather/wxdetail/USNC0280?dayNum=1 They cool you down going heading toward 3pm but warm you up going to 6pm. Yep, and that degree or two would make the difference. Better off looking elsewhere for a decent forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Nice! What about back to the west? Good disco today folks!!!!! Looks like about the same, probably more in the areas with some elevation(Casar/S. Mtns, Lake Lure, Chimney Rock) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 That forecast is really bullish for your area. http://www.weather.c...NC0280?dayNum=1 They cool you down going heading toward 3pm but warm you up going to 6pm. Yep, and that degree or two would make the difference. Better off looking elsewhere for a decent forecast. Which models do MOST of the members on here consider the most reliable? The GFS? I see that mentioned a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Which models do MOST of the members on here consider the most reliable? The GFS? I see that mentioned a lot. It doesn't work that way. Any of the main models may end up being right enough of the time to be worth looking at, but wrong enough of the time to be skeptical about in any given situation. You have to look at trends, biases and the actual setup. Some models do great in certain setups and terrible in others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Which models do MOST of the members on here consider the most reliable? The GFS? I see that mentioned a lot. I think if 99% of us only had to go with one model, we'd go with the Euro but it's nowhere close to that simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Which models do MOST of the members on here consider the most reliable? The GFS? I see that mentioned a lot. Just get ready for the EURO. It will either leave people happy or jumping off the cliff soon. It's getting to that point if it shows something good, winter weather products will follow suit in a rapid fashion for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Just get ready for the EURO. It will either leave people happy or jumping off the cliff soon. It's getting to that point if it shows something good, winter weather products will follow suit in a rapid fashion for some. I think most of the shifting is done. The 12z NAM/GFS caved, but I think this thing has gone about as south as it can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I don't know of this has been discussed, but the Canadian 12z run puts the snow down for a longer duration than the 0z for parts of NC. Liking the cold trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Which models do MOST of the members on here consider the most reliable? The GFS? I see that mentioned a lot. I am a Euro fan in the long/med range. However, you just can't beat a good radar and water vapor loop in the short-term. That is the most fun, for me at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Nasty line of storms developing in the gulf. This is really going to give the models fits IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 RAH waiting for ECMWF before issuing any winter weather products most likely. AS THE IMPACT OF THIS EVENT WOULD BE MOSTLY FELT IN THE 36-48 HOUR TIME FRAME AND WITH LINGERING QUESTIONS OF AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT OF SUCH A MESOSCALE BAND... WILL NOT POST A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME... BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE STRONGLY CONSIDERED THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON... EFFECTIVE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think if 99% of us only had to go with one model, we'd go with the Euro but it's nowhere close to that simple. Occupy The Euro! We are the 99%! Anyway I agree many tend to trust that over most but at this point a shift a few miles will make all the difference in the end so model watching time will be ending shortly. If anything watch the RUC etc. for meso band and deformation potential. I know that was great during the Christmas storm last winter. If you want to see what a meso band can do I chased this beauty during the "big dog" in march 2010: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 What areas do you think they would consider? Not sure I see warning criteria here, but there is a chance. TW I'd think it would be anywhere north of Highway 64 and/or I-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Euro looks identical to 0z run through 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Euro is out to 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Nasty line of storms developing in the gulf. This is really going to give the models fits IMO. Wonder if that is the precipitation robbing kind or the precipitation enhancing kind or the low level PV max generating leading to instant occlusion/bombogenesis off the SC coast kind? By the way, I see Google and Facebook lurking. They know where to come for the best weather analysis available. That's right. The SE forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yep euro identical to 00z up to 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Makes sense. I was thinking maybe the far NE section of their cwa but it probably makes sense to be where you noted. After being outside this morning, it seems I should be going out to play golf or till the garden, not tracking a storm. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Phil Badgett from NWS-RAH was on the radio Gardening Show in Raleigh this morning, and he mentioned the possibility of the Gulf Coast convection possibly cutting into the model QPF by 25% or so. At that time, he was expecting a mostly cold rain on Sunday in the immediate Triangle area, possibly ending with a few flakes overnight tomorrow. Mentioned maybe a couple inches up towards the VA border counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yep euro identical to 00z up to 42 Actually, I like it better. It's a bit colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yep euro identical to 00z up to 42 I have not read through the thread regarding last nights EURO. Where there any changes or was it similar in LP placement to the other models (more of a slight north trend)? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Pretty good run on the Euro for GSO/INT and points north. Looks to be a nice 3-5" event for them. RDU probably 1". RIC get's destroyed 0.9" of QPF of all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 12z EURO gives Mt.Airy 0.82 qpf temps 30-32 850's 0 to -5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Pretty good run on the Euro for GSO/INT and points north. Looks to be a nice 3-5" event for them. RDU probably 1". RIC get's destroyed 0.9" of QPF of all snow. Does the triad get below freezing as it is snowing? tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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