Feb. 18-20, 2012 Disco/Analysis

[burgertime]

Taking a closer look, RDU might get a nice thump out of this.

[burgertime]

Second s/w not as diggy, hurts precip.

RUC is going to be a must watch tomorrow for that energy.

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like NE TN is now coming more into play w/ the RGEM, NAM, and now the GFS. Going to be close. Rob Williams for WJHL is now mentioning that power outages in SW VA may be an issue due to the amount of heavy, wet snow that will fall. Kingsport is a toss-up he states. This may be a mess.

[Carvers Gap]

Taking a closer look, RDU might get a nice thump out of this.

I agree, the slp "drags its heels" as it leaves the coast and a piece of energy dives in as it leaves. Hickory mentioned that the activity along the GOM might be playing havoc w/ the models. Certainly looked that way on this run.

[iceman]

Need this precip to slow down and we might be in buisness. otherwise there just wont be enough moisture left by the time the cold gets here.

[Poimen]

The GFS looks like it puts a pretty good wallop of snow with the deformation band across south central VA and extreme northern NC border counties.

At 36 hours:

42 hours:

Extremem northeast Wake county and points NE from there might even get clipped pretty good after dark.

[HKY_WX]

I agree, the slp "drags its heels" as it leaves the coast and a piece of energy dives in as it leaves. Hickory mentioned that the activity along the GOM might be playing havoc w/ the models. Certainly looked that way on this run.

A lot of times i've noticed the SFC low will jump east when convective energy like this is sliding due east across the gulf coast. I think the GFS track is very realistic and has been a track I could see happening for a while. This system has different characteristics than a Miller B like the models have been portraying. Looking forward to the WRF runs and euro.

[packbacker]

Interesting shift on the 12z GFS compared to 6z, snow axis shifted south for sure..

6z GFS

[HKY_WX]

I think what we're seeing here is the initial slug of moisture is not going to be that significant outside of the deep south. That will slug east off the coast and then the energy on the backside will come in and energize this slp and create the deformation zone which will slide from northern TN/southern Ky into northern NC/southern VA. I think be best place to be is right on the nc/va line. Especially places like Martinsville eastward a little. Although deformation zones are historically hard to predict in location.

[Carvers Gap]

A lot of times i've noticed the SFC low will jump east when convective energy like this is sliding due east across the gulf coast. I think the GFS track is very realistic and has been a track I could see happening for a while. This system has different characteristics than a Miller B like the models have been portraying. Looking forward to the WRF runs and euro.

My area has a wicked snow gradient on the models. The folks who get snow will quite literally be able to go fifteen miles ad be in "no snow." I'm on the southern extent of the good snow. So, any little variance in the model will change things. But yes, it is apparent this is different than a Miller B. More of a "slider" w/ a partial phase at this point, at least that's my terminology. You've definitely been banging this drum for a while - I agree.

[packbacker]

12z GGEM shifted shifted SE, maybe 20-30 miles, if we can get the Euro to shift SE like that we would be in business.

[Tullioz]

The GFS looks like it puts a pretty good wallop of snow with the deformation band across south central VA and extreme northern NC border counties.

At 36 hours:

This brings up the second big reason for why I feel like this is going to be a let down for those expecting accumulating snow. Regardless of the track the storm takes, the pattern is so progressive that the "heavy" precipitation will not be over any given area for very long. Any snow that is falling at a heavy enough clip to overcome the warm ground temperatures will only last an hour or two at best, This leaves little time for any type of real accumulations. It may snow for six to eight hours after the changeover occurs, but 80% of that snow will not fall heavy enough to add much in the way of accumulations. As you can see in the map above you have an area receiving .60" during a six hour period. The only way those areas in South central VA see anywhere close to 6" of snow from that is if it all falls in a one or two hour time frame and that's not likely. Even the places that are in the bulls eye on the clown maps outside of the higher elevations of the mountains will be lucky to see 1/3 of what they are indicating. Partially because of the fast speed of the system due to no blocking, and more importantly because of the rate of the snowfall not being able to overcome the warm soil temperatures. If the cold air were already in place this would be an entirely different story.

[Poimen]

This brings up the second big reason for why I feel like this is going to be a let down for those expecting accumulating snow. Regardless of the track the storm takes, the pattern is so progressive that the "heavy" precipitation will not be over any given area for very long. Any snow that is falling at a heavy enough clip to overcome the warm ground temperatures will only last an hour or two at best, This leaves little time for any type of real accumulations. It may snow for six to eight hours after the changeover occurs, but 80% of that snow will not fall heavy enough to add much in the way of accumulations. As you can see in the map above you have an area receiving .60" during a six hour period. The only way those areas in South central VA see anywhere close to 6" of snow from that is if it all falls in a one or two hour time frame and that's not likely. Even the places that are in the bulls eye on the clown maps outside of the higher elevations of the mountains will be lucky to see 1/3 of what they are indicating. Partially because of the fast speed of the system due to no blocking, and more importantly because of the rate of the snowfall not being able to overcome the warm soil temperatures. If the cold air were already in place this would be an entirely different story.

I know this has been discussed almost ad naseum the past day or so (ground temps verses snowfall rates). I generally agree with you, however I think there are some caveats here. I think it is very difficult to know precisely where the heaviest snow rates will fall and for how long because of the pivoting nature these things take as they progress eastdward. Bottom line for me, I would not rule out some 6" plus amounts across southern VA and possibly the extreme northern border counties of NC. Not saying it will happen, but I'm not prepared to say it can't or won't either.

[packbacker]

This brings up the second big reason for why I feel like this is going to be a let down for those expecting accumulating snow. Regardless of the track the storm takes, the pattern is so progressive that the "heavy" precipitation will not be over any given area for very long. Any snow that is falling at a heavy enough clip to overcome the warm ground temperatures will only last an hour or two at best, This leaves little time for any type of real accumulations. It may snow for six to eight hours after the changeover occurs, but 80% of that snow will not fall heavy enough to add much in the way of accumulations. As you can see in the map above you have an area receiving .60" during a six hour period. The only way those areas in South central VA see anywhere close to 6" of snow from that is if it all falls in a one or two hour time frame and that's not likely. Even the places that are in the bulls eye on the clown maps outside of the higher elevations of the mountains will be lucky to see 1/3 of what they are indicating. Partially because of the fast speed of the system due to no blocking, and more importantly because of the rate of the snowfall not being able to overcome the warm soil temperatures. If the cold air were already in place this would be an entirely different story.

Do you feel like people on this board are expecting a big snow event out of this? I think everyone on here understands this, that we are looking at just seeing some flakes, maybe a dusting, the farther north you go maybe a little more.

Edit - I am just talking about my neck of the woods, central NC, no doubt that the border counties have a chance to see accumulating snow, and the NW mtns.

[Carvers Gap]

GGEM is a pretty substantial storm for NE TN. Brings the slp to just off Hatteras. Time for Dr. No.

[downeastnc]

This brings up the second big reason for why I feel like this is going to be a let down for those expecting accumulating snow. Regardless of the track the storm takes, the pattern is so progressive that the "heavy" precipitation will not be over any given area for very long. Any snow that is falling at a heavy enough clip to overcome the warm ground temperatures will only last an hour or two at best, This leaves little time for any type of real accumulations. It may snow for six to eight hours after the changeover occurs, but 80% of that snow will not fall heavy enough to add much in the way of accumulations. As you can see in the map above you have an area receiving .60" during a six hour period. The only way those areas in South central VA see anywhere close to 6" of snow from that is if it all falls in a one or two hour time frame and that's not likely. Even the places that are in the bulls eye on the clown maps outside of the higher elevations of the mountains will be lucky to see 1/3 of what they are indicating. Partially because of the fast speed of the system due to no blocking, and more importantly because of the rate of the snowfall not being able to overcome the warm soil temperatures. If the cold air were already in place this would be an entirely different story.

The models take ALL THIS INTO CONSIDERATION when making the clown maps......I personally have seen many times where we have had accumulating snow the day after it was 60 degrees heck there have been a few when its been a few days after it was 80.

Stop crapping up the boards with this stuff we get it you dont think the snow it going to accumulate......

[Cold Rain]

Do you feel like people on this board are expecting a big snow event out of this? I think everyone on here understands this, that we are looking at just seeing some flakes, maybe a dusting, the farther north you go maybe a little more.

Edit - I am just talking about my neck of the woods, central NC, no doubt that the border counties have a chance to see accumulating snow, and the NW mtns.

I was wondering the same thing. I don't think most are expecting to look out the window and see 6 inches of snow on the ground and go make snowmen. If a model prints out 4 inches of snow imby in this setup, all that means to me is that the chances of me looking out the window and enjoying a moderate snowfall are better than if it prints out only a dusting. And I'm fine with that.

[WilkesboroDude]

Do you feel like people on this board are expecting a big snow event out of this? I think everyone on here understands this, that we are looking at just seeing some flakes, maybe a dusting, the farther north you go maybe a little more.

I agree with you. Everything that dude says is negative. We get the point accumulations are iffy around Greensboro and points south or east. Some people on here SHOULD expect a big snow event though. Esp. the areas in North Carolina that are under a watch for double digit totals. They need to prepare before it's too late.

[FallsLake]

I was wondering the same thing. I don't think most are expecting to look out the window and see 6 inches of snow on the ground and go make snowmen. If a model prints out 4 inches of snow imby in this setup, all that means to me is that the chances of me looking out the window and enjoying a moderate snowfall are better than if it prints out only a dusting. And I'm fine with that.

I would consider a dusting to an inch to be a victory. Also would love to see RDU list more than a trace as the total snow for the event. (like .4" or .5"). Not asking for much...

[packbacker]

I would consider a dusting to an inch to be a victory. Also would love to see RDU list more than a trace as the total snow for the event. (like .4" or .5"). Not asking for much...

To be honest, I don't even care if it accumulates, I would just like to see it snow for a few hours. Although, we could get lucky and this could go from rain to ice to snow and if the ice can cool the grass enough we could get some grassy accumulation (less than 1").

[SN_Lover]

How is CLT looking per the Bufkit? Thanks

Here the snow forecast.

[Rankin5150]

I think what we're seeing here is the initial slug of moisture is not going to be that significant outside of the deep south. That will slug east off the coast and then the energy on the backside will come in and energize this slp and create the deformation zone which will slide from northern TN/southern Ky into northern NC/southern VA. I think be best place to be is right on the nc/va line. Especially places like Martinsville eastward a little. Although deformation zones are historically hard to predict in location.

Do you think the options are still on the table for the deformation axis to be further south? I noticed a nice, classic looking CAD sig taking shape on the 12z GFS and the 850's were colder as well. Thoughts? Tanks in advance Brandon!

[WilkesboroDude]

Accumulation is almost a given for good swath of NC even if there is little to no snow. Rain will freeze on the grass with temps. falling in the evening. Across the board, this is will be interesting for most. For now, back to looking at the tornadoes down South before the EURO comes in.

* Almost a given because the wind/breeze may play as a factor. And if there was snow, any gusts of wind would probably make it appear as heavy snow.

[SN_Lover]

GSP releases first call map.

[jburns]

This brings up the second big reason for why I feel like this is going to be a let down for those expecting accumulating snow. Regardless of the track the storm takes, the pattern is so progressive that the "heavy" precipitation will not be over any given area for very long. Any snow that is falling at a heavy enough clip to overcome the warm ground temperatures will only last an hour or two at best, This leaves little time for any type of real accumulations. It may snow for six to eight hours after the changeover occurs, but 80% of that snow will not fall heavy enough to add much in the way of accumulations. As you can see in the map above you have an area receiving .60" during a six hour period. The only way those areas in South central VA see anywhere close to 6" of snow from that is if it all falls in a one or two hour time frame and that's not likely. Even the places that are in the bulls eye on the clown maps outside of the higher elevations of the mountains will be lucky to see 1/3 of what they are indicating. Partially because of the fast speed of the system due to no blocking, and more importantly because of the rate of the snowfall not being able to overcome the warm soil temperatures. If the cold air were already in place this would be an entirely different story.

The models take ALL THIS INTO CONSIDERATION when making the clown maps......I personally have seen many times where we have had accumulating snow the day after it was 60 degrees heck there have been a few when its been a few days after it was 80.

Stop crapping up the boards with this stuff we get it you dont think the snow it going to accumulate......

I think you are being a bit unfair here. More snow posts out number less snow posts by at least 20 to 1. While you don't want to hear it his argument was well presented and backed up with his reasoning for feeling that way. I don't see how his post in any way "crapped up" the board. As you say the clown maps may take the ground temps into consideration, but all the posters who are reading QPF and claiming they are going to get X number of inches do not.

[nchighcountrywx]

Area for which this post is applicable: NW NC High Country members: Avery, Watauga, Ashe, Yadkin, Mitchell and Yancey counties.

Unfortunately, there is not much to this unless you have elevation.

Take into consideration what the pros at KGSP are saying:

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR

SIGNIFICANT SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET OVER THE NRN MTNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON

AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN 50/50...GIVEN THE

COOLER TREND WITH THE GUIDANCE. ALLOWING FOR SOME SLOP FACTOR AND

THE COOLER TREND...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE NRN MTN

ZONES AND THE ADJACENT HIGH ELEVATION FOOTHILL ZONES...RUNNING FROM

NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT. IF THE SNOW BEGINS EARLY ENOUGH...MT MITCHELL

AND GRANDFATHER MTN COULD GET OVER A FOOT.

THE NEXT SHIFT WILL MAKE THE CALL ABOUT ISSUING A WARNING OR ADVISORY THAT MIGHT BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT.

LESSER AMTS OF SNOW ARE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE MTNS...

FOOTHILLS...AND PIEDMONT OF NC. EVEN METRO CLT COULD SEE A HALF INCH

SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO. THE PRECIP SHOULD

TAPER OFF TO A BRIEF NW FLOW EVENT BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

One map grid output is KSGP the other KRNK

[Carvers Gap]

I think you are being a bit unfair here. More snow posts out number less snow posts by at least 20 to 1. While you don't want to hear it his argument was well presented and backed up with his reasoning for feeling that way. I don't see how his post in any way "crapped up" the board. As you say the clown maps may take the ground temps into consideration, but all the posters who are reading QPF and claiming they are going to get X number of inches do not.

Agree. Tullioz definitely has a right to state his opinion. Questions in the scientific field are a must. If arguments don't stand up to questioning then they are probably based on fallacy. And he is right. This is going to be a stretch for pretty much everybody on the board to get a decent snow. Several weeks ago, I thought the pattern would turn cold. Tullioz questioned whether that was correct or not. I justified my answer. Turns out, he was right. His input is just as important as the rest. To be honest, after this winter I don't think many are going to be bent out of shape if nothing happens - we've come to expect that.

[BullCityWx]

Unfortunately, there is not much to this unless you have elevation.

Take into consideration what the pros at KGSP are saying:

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR

SIGNIFICANT SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET OVER THE NRN MTNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON

AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN 50/50...GIVEN THE

COOLER TREND WITH THE GUIDANCE. ALLOWING FOR SOME SLOP FACTOR AND

THE COOLER TREND...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE NRN MTN

ZONES AND THE ADJACENT HIGH ELEVATION FOOTHILL ZONES...RUNNING FROM

NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT. IF THE SNOW BEGINS EARLY ENOUGH...MT MITCHELL

AND GRANDFATHER MTN COULD GET OVER A FOOT.

Somehow you forgot this:

THE NEXT SHIFT WILL MAKE THE CALL ABOUT ISSUING A WARNING OR ADVISORY THAT MIGHT BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT. LESSER AMTS OF SNOW ARE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE MTNS... FOOTHILLS...AND PIEDMONT OF NC. EVEN METRO CLT COULD SEE A HALF INCH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO. THE PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF TO A BRIEF NW FLOW EVENT BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

[WilkesboroDude]

Unfortunately, there is not much to this unless you have elevation.

Take into consideration what the pros at KGSP are saying:

Notice how NWS Blacksburg has two maps. The one that they appear to paint is elevation dependent like the one you posted, but the broader one says 1-4inches east of the mountains. The more broader one should also be released soon and will look 300% times better from KGSP than the one they painted. And will follow their forecast discussion and weather grids more for areas east of the mountains.

[Tullioz]

The models take ALL THIS INTO CONSIDERATION when making the clown maps......I personally have seen many times where we have had accumulating snow the day after it was 60 degrees heck there have been a few when its been a few days after it was 80.

Stop crapping up the boards with this stuff we get it you dont think the snow it going to accumulate......

The models for one do not factor in Soil temperature nor the time it takes to over come it. Here is a portion of the Blacksburg Disco:

THUS FINAL SNOW ACCUMS ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THE MODELS

DIRECT OUTPUT SINCE THEY ARE NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT MELTING FROM

THE SURFACE...WHICH WILL BE APPRECIABLE UNTIL VERY LATE SUNDAY AND

INTO THE EVENING WHEN IT GETS DARK.

I agree with you. Everything that dude says is negative. We get the point accumulations are iffy around Greensboro and points south or east. Some people on here SHOULD expect a big snow event though. Esp. the areas in North Carolina that are under a watch for double digit totals. They need to prepare before it's too late.

Is it negative or just an opposing view? I have said many times how I hope that I am wrong as I want to see a decent snow in NC. And I have never once said that the higher elevations of the mountains would not get a significant snow from this system, so I am not sure you are pointing this out.

I think you are being a bit unfair here. More snow posts out number less snow posts by at least 20 to 1. While you don't want to hear it his argument was well presented and backed up with his reasoning for feeling that way. I don't see how his post in any way "crapped up" the board. As you say the clown maps may take the ground temps into consideration, but all the posters who are reading QPF and claiming they are going to get X number of inches do not.

Agree. Tullioz definitely has a right to state his opinion. Questions in the scientific field are a must. If arguments don't stand up to questioning then they are probably based on fallacy. And he is right. This is going to be a stretch for pretty much everybody on the board to get a decent snow. Several weeks ago, I thought the pattern would turn cold. Tullioz questioned whether that was correct or not. I justified my answer. Turns out, he was right. His input is just as important as the rest. To be honest, after this winter I don't think many are going to be bent out of shape if nothing happens - we've come to expect that.

Thanks for the support, but I have decided I will sit the rest of this one out on the sidelines and will watch from a distance. It is clear that if you have an opinion that differs from the consensus it is unwelcome to most, therefore I will keep my opinion to myself from here on out. That should bring smiles to many. lol I hope everyone gets what they are expecting from this system and then some.