BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 At 6z, the NAM extracted data showed thundersleet at the Lincolnton Airport on Sunday Night: http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_KIPJ.txt I dont care how warm ground temps are, thundersleet is going to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 One thing I remember from years past when models trend in a certain direction, it is very common for them to reverse course just a little just before the storm hits. Doesn't always happen, but It would be common to see a storm which trended 100 miles south to correct back 25 miles north at the end. That may be what we are seeing here. Also, it appears to me that the hp is just a tad weaker this run. TW I think you're right and that's what we're seeing here. Just glancing at the 0Z runs, with the exception of the NAM, they mostly trended north, slightly. And the new NAM seems to continue that trend. For folks in VA and the far northern boarder counties in NC, it doesn't make that much difference. But for the Triangle area and folks in the southern Piedmont, that's not a trend we want to see continue if we want to look out the window and see any legitimate snow falling from the sky (not talking about a few token flakes). I'd like to see the whole thing go 50-75 miles farther south than depicted. We'll see what the rest of the guidance has to offer shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 At 6z, the NAM extracted data showed thundersleet at the Lincolnton Airport on Sunday Night: http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_KIPJ.txt I dont care how warm ground temps are, thundersleet is going to accumulate. Wow! Don't think I've ever seen thundersleet before? Do you have a link to the main site from which you got that data? I'd like to look at extracted data for other sites as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 .25 qpf falling as sleet vs snow? I would think the impact on surface temps would be similar. In the same manor, rain and mid 30's before the snow begins will have an impact as well. TW I guess with small amounts it wouldn't make much difference, but as Queen just posted thunder sleet...now that would have no problem accumulating. I think that would have an effect on road surfaces too. One of the model text data yesterday or night before showed rn with thunder and temp 33 in Rah.... so certainly some convective precip with system seems plausible. I would love some thunder sleet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Wow! Don't think I've ever seen thundersleet before? Do you have a link to the main site from which you got that data? I'd like to look at extracted data for other sites as well. Just change the airport identifier at the end of the link and you can see whatever location you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 i wouldn't be surprised if this piece of precip' sliding e along the deep south throws things off in some way. convective precip like this can play havoc with the models and cause feedback errors on the timing and slp track. something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Totally agree. However, I could see decks, cars, trees, etc. holding much of what falls since the surface temps will get aob freezing around the time a changeover occurs. Since those surfaces cool very fast, I think those spots would hold most of what falls. So if there are 4" on cars/decks etc. but 1" on the ground, how much snow accumulated? TW I would count it as being 4" of actual snowfall in that case. However; under the conditions this time around I doubt that this will happen regardless. Another disturbing trend to watch is a gradual shift to the North with this system. Even a 20 mile shift every six hours on the models between now and tomorrow will place it 60 to 80 miles further North than what we are seeing now on the models. Even if it were to take a perfect track, my ideas have not changed since yesterday, and I can not see how there will be any accumulations South of the NC/VA border outside of the mountains. Outside of some slush on elevated surfaces and grassy areas that's the best that can be expected. I will not repeat everything form yesterday since it will waste space in this thread and has already been mentioned. That being said, I hope everyone does better than what I am expecting since this has has been such a disappointing season thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I would count it as being 4" of actual snowfall in that case. However; under the conditions this time around I doubt that this will happen regardless. Another disturbing trend to watch is a gradual shift to the North with this system. Even a 20 mile shift every six hours on the models between now and tomorrow will place it 60 to 80 miles further North than what we are seeing now on the models. Even if it were to take a perfect track, my ideas have not changed since yesterday, and I can not see how there will be any accumulations South of the NC/VA border outside of the mountains. Outside of some slush on elevated surfaces and grassy areas that's the best that can be expected. I will not repeat everything form yesterday since it will waste space in this thread and has already been mentioned. That being said, I hope everyone does better than what I am expecting since this has has been such a disappointing season thus far. Would tend to agree, but close enough to remain optimistic. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The only interesting feature i see right now is this piece over the ohio valley seems to a little stronger than the NAM is depicting. that's what's going to help suppress this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Wow! Don't think I've ever seen thundersleet before? Do you have a link to the main site from which you got that data? I'd like to look at extracted data for other sites as well. It may have happened in the Feb. of 2010 storm that was talked about in this thread. There was heavy heavy sleet in CLT with that storm..had it been snow we would have had probably 8 - 10 inches. Instead we got about a half inch of sleet. I seem to recall some lightning associated with it but I might be wrong about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 WRF-NMM seems to pick this feature up much better as well as the trjaectory of the southern vort. The only interesting feature i see right now is this piece over the ohio valley seems to a little stronger than the NAM is depicting. that's what's going to help suppress this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 RGEM, held serve to the 0z/6z runs, a smidge SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Just change the airport identifier at the end of the link and you can see whatever location you want. Interesting: NAM offering an inch of (I assume) slushy snow in Faynam, closer to 1.5-2 inches up in Harnett and 2-plus on the west side of Raleigh. It's not a blizzard, but would be quite a treat for the snow-starved! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 According to the 12z nam 12.6" for Roanoke. 1.2" for Greensboro but thundersleet before the changeover. Boone getting more ice storm than a snow storm (only 2.9" of snow). TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 One thing I'm noticing on the bufkit output is that many of the locations that go over to sleet/snow have a short window of freezing drizzle/rain before the snow starts up. That can certainly help with accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The only interesting feature i see right now is this piece over the ohio valley seems to a little stronger than the NAM is depicting. that's what's going to help suppress this storm. 12Z GFS coming in stronger with that feature already @12 Also this run is further south than 6z (not that it matters much at this point). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Per the NAM Greensboro and points west are really close to a vastly little ice (sleet/frzn) event...You have to think if this event comes in over night it could have been ugly. GSO 27 02/19 15Z 33 30 54 14 0.15 0.00 548 560 3.1 -14.8 1015 100 RA 009OVC303 0.0 1.4 30 02/19 18Z 33 31 56 12 0.21 0.00 549 557 2.2 -16.3 1010 100 RA 008OVC177 0.0 0.8 33 02/19 21Z 33 30 41 15 0.09 0.01 545 551 1.7 -19.3 1007 100 -TSRA 007OVC083 0.0 5.0 36 02/20 00Z 31 29 34 14 0.10 0.04 543 549 -1.0 -20.1 1007 100 -TSPL 007OVC205 0.0 2.6 39 02/20 03Z 31 28 9 15 0.08 0.00 540 548 -4.5 -20.2 1010 100 -SN 008OVC135 0.8 1.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 That trailing energy looks stronger on the 12z GFS than it was on the 6z out to 21 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 This is probably a dumb question, but is there something geographically that makes thundersnow and thundersleet more likely in the western part of the state than farther east (other than the fact that frozen precip is usually more likely there)? Reason I ask is that you hear about it more there, it seems like. Could just be a case of selected hearing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 LP centered in south central AL at 21 hours on the GFS and beginning to transfer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 @24 both parcels of energy are stronger and south of the 6z. Not much qpf getting into VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 fairly cold look, all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 12z GFS much colder over Virginia at 24 hours -- 850 OC line takes a trip down I 95 from RIC to South Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Surface conditions at hour 24 on 12Z GFS. 0C 850mb line seems to edge down the east side of the Apps. And at hour 30: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 850 low clearly south of 6z position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 This run is def. colder at the SFC should be mostly snow across NC @39. Not a lot of QPF around though...RDU is very close to a good hit at that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 At 36 hours on 12z GFS -- 850 0C line makes it to CLT. On 6z run at 42 hours, it was north of HKY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 850 low clearly south of 6z position. This run goes dry fast @42 for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 colder...less qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Second s/w not as diggy, hurts precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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