burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Don't get too hung up on it, but also don't set expectations too high. The best I'm hoping for are some wet flakes near the end of the event. Yea I'm not expecting muchmifni can get some slush I'll be happy if we could get the gfs qpf and the NAM cold I think a lot of us would be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Purely looking at sfc temps not a good run for anyone east and south of fourth from HKY east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 With that I'm off to bed good luck on the euro...fight the good fight and hopefully the trend continues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Just posted by DT http://sphotos.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc7/417617_316743011706297_129478830432717_867969_1137581291_n.jpg "LOVE THAT SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION CANADIAN" 0Z CMC hr 48: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 GFS almost identical to 12z Nogaps. Oz Nam is colder and a little more generous with qpf. See if Euro and Can can line up with the NAM. Splitting hairs here, but just a nudge in eitheir direction will be the difference in cold rain v/s 1-3 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Per the soundings all the columns are cold enough to support snow at RDU at hr 54 on the 0z gfs. I can't get hr 51 to update so I'm not sure but looking at that map I would imagine that we're not cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 this is for my parents place about 6 miles SSE of Cherryville: based on regional maps it appeared thickness was an issue 540 line never made it south like the NAM had it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 IF the NAM is right, it's looking more and more likely there's going to be an area that switches to IP before SN and gets potentially a decent amount of it. If I had to guess, I'd guess the areas between 40 and 85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 based on regional maps it appeared thickness was an issue 540 line never made it south like the NAM had it Yeah, looks that way. My sounding didnt work on here like they used to either. Anyway, it's probably snowing there by 6z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Just in WSOCTV changes perspective "Chance of a short window of snow/rain mix or wet snow has increased just a bit for the Metro late Sunday aftn. as the storm winds down. ~Steve" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 This is how confused NWS Blacksburg is for my area. Sunday Rain. A chance of snow early in the evening. Little or no snow accumulation. Cooler with highs in the lower 40s. Temperature falling into the upper 30s in the afternoon. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. » ZIP Code Detail Sunday Night Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow with a slight chance of rain in the late evening and early morning...then sunny early in the morning. Cooler with lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 based on regional maps it appeared thickness was an issue 540 line never made it south like the NAM had it Who looks at the 540 line in this day and age? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Here are some of my thoughts... most of these coming out before the most recent 00z GFS. I'm certainly on board with heavy wet snow across the Apps of North Carolina... the piedmont and coastal plain, a lot more iffy! To read more about the discussion please view the link below. http://www.atmos.alb...pin/local2.html First Call: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Thoughts on this, but doesn't the 00z gfs NOT look like a miller B? Looks to me like the lp justs take a very far south track and scoots out to see. No real move up the spine or west of the apps with transfer to the coast. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Here are some of my thoughts... most of these coming out before the most recent 00z GFS. I'm certainly on board with heavy wet snow across the Apps... the piedmont and coastal plain, a lot more iffy! http://www.atmos.alb...pin/local2.html First Call: http://i39.tinypic.com/jkag5d.png You juust madee mee....are you serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'm getting the feeling the GFS is still trying to play catchup to the ECMWF and NAM solutions. We have seen the suppressed pattern continue. If the deformation band that currently goes over Tennessee and Kentucky instead goes over NC and VA, this will be a big deal, with 1"+ QPF totals in 6 hours! Honestly, I think the GFS is showing a little bit of convective feed back in the deformation band... which could either be a signal that we should expect the preciptiation field to be more diffuse, or that there is actual active convection in the deformation band! (think March 2009). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Here are some of my thoughts... most of these coming out before the most recent 00z GFS. I'm certainly on board with heavy wet snow across the Apps of North Carolina... the piedmont and coastal plain, a lot more iffy! To read more about the discussion please view the link below. http://www.atmos.alb...pin/local2.html First Call: Thanks for the info and analysis. I like the look of the NAM and the Euro also and i agree that the GFS is playing catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Even after seeing the 0z GFS and NAM, I am still sticking to my idea that nowhere South of the NC/VA outside of the mountains sees more than a slushy accumulation on grass and elevated surfaces at best. And that will be limited to the border counties and a few areas that are fortunate enough to get under a heavier band of precipitation in the Piedmont areas. Even with a more Southerly track it doesn't look much better as the amount of moisture available has been trending a little lighter with each run. If there are not heavy precipitation rates in NC then there will be no chance of seeing more than a few token flakes as the moisture exits. This would mainly be due to the boundary issues that have started showing up for most locations. There are just too many things going against this system as it is more like an early Spring storm as opposed to a true Winter storm with above normal temperatures we have experienced all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Seriously unless something major/catastrophic happens, this is a VA storm. I had posted before (it got deleted of course) it looked like the models were locking in on a track. It's VA's guys. Atleast NC will see some good sky effects. The major > 2" accumulating aspect is North though. Feel free to banter me in the banter thread if I'm wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yes, Jan 29/30 2010, this event reminds me a lot of that event. That was the event that showed us getting a huge storm up until 48 hours before and than it started trending north and the MA got a bigger event that we did. We still did alright. I forgot that one was kind of a Miller A/B hybrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Seriously unless something major/catastrophic happens, this is a VA storm. I had posted before (it got deleted of course) it looked like the models were locking in on a track. It's VA's guys. Atleast NC will see some good sky effects. The accumulating aspect is North though. Feel free to banter me in the banter thread if I'm wrong though. There has been a lot of talk on boundary layer temperatures... and I think its certainly justified in the early going of the track. However, if the ECMWF and the NAM have the right idea, the cold air will still be able to bleed into NC before the precipitation fully moves out. The 4km Nam shows this well on the nice graphics from the EWALL site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 There has been a lot of talk on boundary layer temperatures... and I think its certainly justified in the early going of the track. However, if the ECMWF and the NAM have the right idea, the cold air will still be able to bleed into NC before the precipitation fully moves out. The 4km Nam shows this well on the nice graphics from the EWALL site. Great post. Most sites are queuing in on accumulating snow now for my area. The few left will join Saturday if everything holds. It's already on the news and people will flood the stores here soon. I am excited. Hoping for a solid 1-3+ around North Wilkesboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Seriously unless something major/catastrophic happens, this is a VA storm. I had posted before (it got deleted of course) it looked like the models were locking in on a track. It's VA's guys. Atleast NC will see some good sky effects. The major > 2" accumulating aspect is North though. Feel free to banter me in the banter thread if I'm wrong though. I have never really seen this storm as a threat for anyone South of the NC/VA border. I am not going to rehash all of my reasoning for this at this time, however; even in Virginia it is not going to be a huge storm as it is becoming more likely that even there the accumulations will be much less than the models are indicating outside of the higher elevations. I guess the lack of Winter weather this season has clouded everyone's judgement. I think with the season coming to a close, most are just seeing what they want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 There has been a lot of talk on boundary layer temperatures... and I think its certainly justified in the early going of the track. However, if the ECMWF and the NAM have the right idea, the cold air will still be able to bleed into NC before the precipitation fully moves out. The 4km Nam shows this well on the nice graphics from the EWALL site. That's a very good resolution for temperature. If this is correct and the Smoky mountains above say 4500' stay below freezing through a majority of this precip, they could be bigger winners than KY and WV and VA. Ray (from Booneweather) wasn't able to show the resolution of the real high country (and few models ever cover it), but I really do think that areas above 6000' along the TN/NC border (and possibly Mt. Mitchell) could end up with 6-8" of snow from this, and possibly even 10-12" from the first round, and possibly 4-6" from upslope after it blows over and the NW flow kicks in. If it doesn't stay below freezing for most of the event up there then they will still pick up good snow on the back side and get nailed by the NW flow afterwards. I would not be surprised at all if Mt. Leconte, Mt. Mitchell, and Clingman's Dome got over 12"+ total from the entire event. The last system that moved through last weekend dumped 8" in the high country on Mt. Leconte and I remember from hiking through it that a lot of the rain in the valley the night before fell as snow up there - and when the upslope kicked in as I was hiking up Rainbow Falls the snowfall rates were staggering simply because there was abundant moisture and the temperatures were so low. This situation will be similar to that, but will have MORE moisture ahead of the NW flow event. I can safely tell you after walking a few miles through a NW flow event in high elevations that the snow rates can be amazing for this part of the country - and the snow doesn't exactly fall straight down either. I won't be making a trip back up there on Monday though. This won't show up on NAM or GFS 4km resolution, but I'll be interested to hear the reports from out of there early next week. By the way, this is what the GFS is putting out for 60h at 00z. It is really knocking on the door for Knoxville now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Hi RES NMM is running the 850mb low south of CLT....deformation band is a little further south than the NAM, with the heart of it running through most of NC and into far south VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Simulated Radar at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Snow Accumulation thru 48 on the Hi Res Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Euro is not as cold as the NAM at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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