CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Does anyone know of any Miller Bs that have produced significant snows in Central NC? It seems like they generally end in screwjobs and I can't really think of any at the moment. I know in the northern Piedmont, we got 1-2" of snow on the front end of the storm (before turning to 33 and rain) during the huge Miller Bs that crushed DCA and the Mid-Atlantic in February 2010. I suppose this Miller B with this one appears to transfer its energy much further south than the ones that hit DCA, though, so that goes in our favor as the WAA does not make it as far north. Miller B's can be fun in the damming areas if the energy transfers south of us. Which, is what the models are showing. If this were January, and there was snowcover to the north of us, I would say this is a major winter storm for the NC foothills. With it being Feb, this is no where near being settled. However, I really do like the trends of today. Now, if the 0z suite can continue this trend, we are all in business. I would like to be under that deform zone for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I haven't seen anyone mention this, but from 15z onwards the temp at RDU hovers right around 33-34F through 00z, when it gets to 32F on the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 With cold air filtering in during the event and lack of pinpoint on exactly where the deformation band sets up...this may end up being a nowcast situation in terms of who gets the sock-it-to-me outside the mts.. With that we arrive at point #8. 8. As zero hour approaches someone will post, "it's a matter of nowcasting now". This means that despite 7 days and nights of model watching, loss of sleep, loss of productivity on our jobs and alienating our families we still won't know what is going to happen until it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Something to keep any eye on especially with the CAD signature.. I haven't seen anyone mention this, but from 15z onwards the temp at RDU hovers right around 33-34F through 00z, when it gets to 32F on the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 NAM looked like it came further south, too, and it has been the most conservative with the snow amounts here. But it is still following the trend of the models showing more snow further south with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Something to keep any eye on especially with the CAD signature.. Exactly...if this trends any colder, we're in a whole new ball game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yes, Jan 29/30 2010, this event reminds me a lot of that event. That was the event that showed us getting a huge storm up until 48 hours before and than it started trending north and the MA got a bigger event that we did. We still did alright. It would be nice if that happened again, but this situation looks different than what happened that day. *************** Here is the 0Z NAM for Charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yes, Jan 29/30 2010, this event reminds me a lot of that event. That was the event that showed us getting a huge storm up until 48 hours before and than it started trending north and the MA got a bigger event that we did. We still did alright. Got like an imch of sleet out of that one cause of boundary layer issues..still stings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 One problem on the NAM is our 850 low goes poof and reforms off Hatteras... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 this all rain event may become all snow event for wnc and points east and north, models on sat will be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 850mb track on NAM is Tupelo > Charlotte > Hatteras. 12z Euro was almost identical....maybe a hair south of that. 18z NAM track was Chattanooga > Asheville > Virginia Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 One problem on the NAM is our 850 low goes poof and reforms off Hatteras... It's been doing that on most (all?) models for quite a few runs now. That's why it's sort of a Miller A/B hybrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Exactly...if this trends any colder, we're in a whole new ball game. Yeah we are a 2F from a 3-5" event and of course to an all rain event depending on which way it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 0Z GFS is rolling... 15- more precip than 18z 21- warmer for the Carolina's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It's been doing that on most (all?) models for quite a few runs now. That's why it's sort of a Miller A/B hybrid. Not that I have noticed, but was wondering why the lack of precip. Your probably right though. I did check a couple of runs of the GFS/NAM and it didn't do that, can't see the Euro 850H. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 0Z GFS is rolling... Out to 18 I'm on the iPad so it's hard to see changes might be a hair slower than 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Out to 24 slower and further south than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well through 24 the heights are lower on the EC when compared to the 18z GFS, argues for a further south track but we will see. Not pinning my hopes on the NAM, would like to see the GFS move to the Euro, and of course the Euro hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yes, Jan 29/30 2010, this event reminds me a lot of that event. That was the event that showed us getting a huge storm up until 48 hours before and than it started trending north and the MA got a bigger event that we did. We still did alright. One thing I remember about that storm is the cold we had afterwards. During the storm there was a warm nose that turned us to sleet for a while before going back to snow. We are not going to have near the cold we had w/ that storm. I shoveled pure ice out of my driveway 2 days after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Carolina s cooler at 27 ... looks more suppressed. 39- CAD more prevalent, but precip is suppressed. 42- pts of TN gets 10+in of snow, conditional on a 10:1 ratio 45-48- Light snow showers for southern Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgarren Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 high pressure in MI is a lot further south than 18z looks like the storm will be too? looks like it is throwing down some cooler and dry air as the low is about the same place but the moisture starts cutting off as it nears NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 At 39 looks a CAD sig showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgarren Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 At 39 looks a CAD sig showing up i was thinking the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Big gap of qpf in NC with that transfer dont like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Big gap of qpf in NC with that transfer dont like that I saw that to Hopefully that will change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Big gap of qpf in NC with that transfer dont like that The first slug of precip is going to be all rain anyway... though we are below normal for the month of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The first slug of precip is going to be all rain anyway... though we are below normal for the month of February. True looks better 48 but that cold air ain't moving east of the mountains yet....but it is shortrange gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 True looks better 48 but that cold air ain't moving east of the mountains yet....but it is shortrange gfs Don't get too hung up on it, but also don't set expectations too high. The best I'm hoping for are some wet flakes near the end of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I would expect that a transfer to a coastal would mean a relative precip min sets up somewhere in the central part of NC. That's what usually happens in that scenario, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 GFS is slower with the arrival of the cold air but has the deformation band pivoting across northern NC overnight Sunday/Monday. Good stuff tonight overall, I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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